January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Pghsnow]

[Penn State]

8 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

I feel like the ICON has been late to find the consensus this year, but eventually comes around. I think it’s been more S and E over the last couple runs, so this is an improvement (assuming that’s a helpful shift for one’s location)

[Penn State]

GFS looking a bit faster.. weaker.. assuming the translates to SE. 

[Penn State]

PA gets left out.. parts of VA get smoked.. suppression is real lol  

Edited January 1 by Penn State

[TLChip]

GFS hits the PA state line.... nope!

CAD brings it up the coast bringing the threat of mixing further north.

Edited January 1 by TLChip

[Chris2333]

5 days out and the storm gets lost/suppressed/etc been 2 years since I could say that, let the model mayhem begin, I’ll go back to my saying in years past don’t want to be a bullseye this far out and still got plenty of time but I got a feeling we get something with this one. Call it my 6th maybe 7th sense. 

[Penn State]

On the other hand.. Canadian hugs the coast. I’m actually all the way to a wintry mix in SCPA. 

[MaineJay]

12 minutes ago, Penn State said:

GFS looking a bit faster.. weaker.. assuming the translates to SE. 

Zoom zoom.

"w" shaped trofs don't scream big storm. Just can't put this pieces together this time. Another spin in 6 hours.

[JDClapper]

*looks at GFS* oh no, we suck again

*looks at CMC* oh no, I'm in the bullseye 6 days out

Can't "win" lol

[PA road DAWG]

3 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

*looks at GFS* oh no, we suck again

*looks at CMC* oh no, I'm in the bullseye 6 days out

Can't "win" lol

Are we surprised lol 

this happens every storm.  Gfs trends weaker and SE, cmc goes northwest.   Time will tell 

Edited January 1 by PA road DAWG

[PA road DAWG]

Do I need to post that March 2017 gfs trend again lol 

[JDClapper]

2 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Tried outlining the west/east clusters of 0z EPS to give a "cone of uncertainty" at this juncture.  There's a slight westward preference, so a line right down the middle isn't necessarily the best probability, at this time.

If one were to use the 0z EPS to help keep emotions in check, CMC is well within the "cone of uncertainty", but on the western edge, while the GFS went on the way SE side of that cone.

Edited January 1 by JDClapper

[JDClapper]

H5 trends the past 4 days .. CMC/GFS

[Pghsnow]

[JDClapper]

FWIW, the vast majority of Central PA's "significant" snow events wind up between 2-5".  Only 1-2 times a year will an event end up 6"+, and every other year 9"+.  It would not be surprising one iota to end up in a scenario like that in my regio, it would actually be quite typical.  Assuming, this ends up one of our main snow events of the season.

[Pghsnow]

  

[PA road DAWG]

8 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

FWIW, the vast majority of Central PA's "significant" snow events wind up between 2-5".  Only 1-2 times a year will an event end up 6"+, and every other year 9"+.  It would not be surprising one iota to end up in a scenario like that in my regio, it would actually be quite typical.  Assuming, this ends up one of our main snow events of the season.

I actually read an article posted by the nws that gave stats on this.  I’m going to try and find it for you.  How often 6”-12”-20” snows occur etc.  

[Pghsnow]

16 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

FWIW, the vast majority of Central PA's "significant" snow events wind up between 2-5".  Only 1-2 times a year will an event end up 6"+, and every other year 9"+.  It would not be surprising one iota to end up in a scenario like that in my regio, it would actually be quite typical.  Assuming, this ends up one of our main snow events of the season.

This is Pittsburgh

[anomaly]

There is a great weather site covering Hagerstown md. www.i4weather.net   It has been keeping records since 1898. tracks everything and has comments and totals on any snow 10 inches or higher. Great for historical reference my area, 2016 was the last 10+ at 24.4 inches

[JDClapper]

Some additional fun graphics I came across this morning

[SnowloverSid]

Happy 2024 fellow Wx Spherers! December was a drag, and 2023 was filled with underperforming snow “storms” all year. At the Binghamton airport, it was the first calendar year with no 20- inch snow months since 2006. If you go 23 years in the other direction, you get 2040!  Before 2006, it was 1992, which is now 32 years ago.

[Pghsnow]

[MDBlueridge]

16 minutes ago, anomaly said:

There is a great weather site covering Hagerstown md. www.i4weather.net   It has been keeping records since 1898. tracks everything and has comments and totals on any snow 10 inches or higher. Great for historical reference my area, 2016 was the last 10+ at 24.4 inches

Cumberland, hagerstown, Frederick and all valley towns in between seriously get screwed all the time with snowfall. Carrol county is far enough away and on a little hump that it makes out ok. South mountain west and the ridges ruin so many snows for many. Our last 10"+ snowfall was in 2021 and that is very long in the tooth here. 

[Poco]

54 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Zoom zoom.

"w" shaped trofs don't scream big storm. Just can't put this pieces together this time. Another spin in 6 hours.

The probalistics, esp Gefs had this possibility clearly highlighted last evening.  
 

the juicy nothern piece that would make this go bang is unfortunately one beat out front and merges with the prior southern wave and makes a storm for Extreme NS and maritimes. 

this threat is  southern stream dominant and we just don’t have the amplified flow in the Atlantic that can turn this north and cause it to energize. 

just seeing snow somewhere from  this should be considered  a win.  
 

if anyone reads the global tropics hazards assessments you’d see that we have a largely coherent and destructive mJO signal shaping up that should ruffle the enso and Current IOD background state.  I wouldn’t consider that a bad thing given our current winter.   Any I digress as this is a storm thread not something range disco or monthly summary 

 

[MDBlueridge]

1 minute ago, Poco said:

The probalistics, esp Gefs had this possibility clearly highlighted last evening.  
 

the juicy nothern piece that would make this go bang is unfortunately one beat out front and merges with the prior southern wave and makes a storm for Extreme NS and maritimes. 

this threat is  southern stream dominant and we just don’t have the amplified flow in the Atlantic that can turn this north and cause it to energize. 

just seeing snow somewhere from  this should be considered  a win.  
 

if anyone reads the global tropics hazards assessments you’d see that we have a largely coherent and destructive mJO signal shaping up that should ruffle the enso and Current IOD background state.  I wouldn’t consider that a bad thing given our current winter.   Any I digress as this is a storm thread not something range disco or monthly summary 

 

🤓 nerd 🤓 but hi pokie poc