January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[WeatherFlash]

3 minutes ago, RobB said:

I believe so.  GDPS is the Global (GEM) and RDPS is the Regional (RGEM)

Unless I have been mistaken all this time which is possible 😄

No thats correct. They're the same 

[clm]

No ice accumulation for me.  Joy.  Still have to worry about the rain/snow mix.  < 1" for most of Suffolk and parts of Nassau get 1 to 2".  

@ionizer I believe you mentioned you were in Monmouth County?  Parts of it are supposed to get 8 to 12.  Are you in that area or south of there?

[Penn State]

So.. I'm just hoping for no curveballs from the 12z suite. GFS is rolling. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

44 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I don't know why I just thought about this.. but thinking about members that I miss.. Anyone know about paletitsnow? or AccuChris? Enjoyed their commentary. 

They were at Disco. If it gets slow and people don’t mind later, i will share a funny story of the original days of the Wild West that was Accu Weather.

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

They were at Disco. If it gets slow and people don’t mind later, i will share a funny story of the original days of the Wild West that was Accu Weather.

Winter Warlock is another that I'd like to hear from again.

[Penn State]

GFS looks like the RGEM. Great run! Those purples show up again too.. I do think there will be some surprise totals tomorrow where the heavy banding set up. 10-12" amounts. 

Edited January 5 by Penn State

[clm]

3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

They were at Disco. If it gets slow and people don’t mind later, i will share a funny story of the original days of the Wild West that was Accu Weather.

[Psu1313]

32 minutes ago, Penn State said:

REGM consistency continues.. hits the same spot over and over, and it's a bit colder than current modeling. Don't want to model hug.. but I like it! 

So there is a question to be had here. Does our Low, A) ride the apps and then slide east (tough but this is a bowling ball type system) or B) track south through Alabama, Georgia, and into NC and then up. That's a big part of the equation here. 

At 16 they are virtually the same though the NAM pops the low in the wrong place (should be over Mississippi. NAM then pushes up the Apps, RGEM goes through Atlanta and up with the surface low. They both end up near the Chesapeake Bay in the 34 to 36 hour mark respectively so they have the same idea in that regards. A low pushing up the apps would enhance precip for Pittsburgh and Northern PA, while potentially bringing warmer temps into WV, VA and to the coast. 06z Euro is closer to the NAM, 06z GFS closer to the RGEM. Easy forecast right? 

[SquallBall]

2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Winter Warlock is another that I'd like to hear from again.

haven't seen big merg from the blue knob either .... the time someone called out accuchris for his model profile photo was hilarious.... the time someone broke down pa let it snow into a different name using the same letters was even funnier 

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Psu1313 said:

So there is a question to be had here. Does our Low, A) ride the apps and then slide east (tough but this is a bowling ball type system) or B) track south through Alabama, Georgia, and into NC and then up. That's a big part of the equation here. 

At 16 they are virtually the same though the NAM pops the low in the wrong place (should be over Mississippi. NAM then pushes up the Apps, RGEM goes through Atlanta and up with the surface low. They both end up near the Chesapeake Bay in the 34 to 36 hour mark respectively so they have the same idea in that regards. A low pushing up the apps would enhance precip for Pittsburgh and Northern PA, while potentially bringing warmer temps into WV, VA and to the coast. 06z Euro is closer to the NAM, 06z GFS closer to the RGEM. Easy forecast right? 

That's a good analysis and question.. Based upon the NOAA data, I would think through Georgia and to the Chesapeake. 

[mikeysed]

Gfs Kuchera map?

[Penn State]

Canadian also looks great! Some of my 12z fears have been alleviated. Whew! 

[Rickrd]

4 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Canadian also looks great! Some of my 12z fears have been alleviated. Whew! 

for know. Penguins standing by....😜

[Psu1313]

11 minutes ago, Penn State said:

That's a good analysis and question.. Based upon the NOAA data, I would think through Georgia and to the Chesapeake. 

Between you and I, I agree. It's easier as well. Just something to keep an eye on. 

[Rickrd]

6 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Gfs Kuchera map?

 

[WeatherFlash]

6 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Canadian also looks great! Some of my 12z fears have been alleviated. Whew! 

Yep! 

[Rickrd]

Thinking we should flip the switch to the short term, higher resolution models at this point, no?

[Psu1313]

GFS just tossed a potential flag. Check out that little circle over West Virginia. I know everyone is seeing the outputs, but look closely to the energy at 500 and the surface reflection. Interesting.

 

[TheRex]

Looks like I'm in the game this far north.  My area was not in the game just 48 hours ago but the trend has been my friend plus our snow ratios should be fairly high up this way.  It won't be a barn burner but at least it will whiten things up after a dismal December that melted our November snow.

Those getting the big snow, make sure you take some time to enjoy it.

Here's BTV overnight forecast discussion:

Quote

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 316 AM EST Friday...A deepening area of low pressure is
expected to move offshore near the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday
afternoon as it tracks northeastward toward eastern
Massachusetts/Cape Cod. If you take a look at the last 3 model
cycles (12Z Thu, 18Z Thu, 00Z Fri), you`ll see models have
continued to trend slight west/northwestward which is inching
the probabilities for higher snow totals closer to southern
Vermont. The exact low track over the next few days will have a
huge impact on snow totals given how compact the low pressure
system is slated to be. That being said, we could see near 1"
per hour rates Sunday morning across southern Vermont as strong
moisture advection coupled with good frontogenetic forcing
(FGEN). The latest suite of guidance is showing the FGEN
extending into a saturated snow growth layer with an isothermal
layer below. This should support a good burst of snowfall but
whether this band of snowfall can make it into Vermont or not
will be tied to the low track. Should models continue the
westward trend they have shown over the past 12-18 hours, it`s
totally possible. Given the increasing confidence of warning
level snow across southern Vermont, we have issued a winter
storm watch for Rutland and Windsor counties as 6-8 inches of
snow is now forecast for these locations. A sharp gradient in
snowfall totals will be seen across Vermont and northern New
York with 1-2 inches expected near the International Border and
3-5 inches for portions of central Vermont. Again, these
snowfall totals are subject to change as models continue get a
handle on this system.

 

[mikeysed]

Cmc and rgem looked more in sync last few days.

 

Is there a clown map kuchera of cmc? Rgem looks most likely from what I've seen with temps. Very elevation dependent.

[StretchCT]

Highlights from Uptons briefing.  Gotta love when your min snow is just below warning level  

[Burr]

Pulling a maxim from the Accu forum days, the precip from these mid-Atlantic storms always move NW from what the models showed 48-hours out.  
 

in any case, I’m looking at a very wet weekend, and hoping you all to my NW enjoy a white one!

[clm]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Highlights from Uptons briefing.  Gotta love when your min snow is just below warning level  

That arrow pointing to LI makes me think of

[WeatherFlash]

3 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Cmc and rgem looked more in sync last few days.

 

Is there a clown map kuchera of cmc? Rgem looks most likely from what I've seen with temps. Very elevation dependent.

Here you go. 

[clm]

Taking a wider look, I do not see anything capable of pushing/pulling this storm more southeast to give me more snow.  Just not in the cards for LI this storm.  That High over Canada not doing much to help.  Would have been our only chance.

 

Edited January 5 by clm