January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[clm]

1 minute ago, NEPAsnow said:

slightly south of previous run

And that is probably what is giving me that extra possible 0.5" on Sunday.

[JDClapper]

Pittsburgh!!!

[Penn State]

I know the 3K NAM is overdone.. but like @MDBlueridge mentioned, it's good for precip types. Looks like I get about 7 good hours of snow from this, so it's fast mover. One thing I will note.. some really heavy bands of snow should accompany this. At one inch per hour (at least I would think), those will add up fast. 

[Penn State]

[tcari394]

7 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Pittsburgh!!!

The Penguins beat the Bruins last night and now this!   What a day to be alive!  🙂

[bigben89]

Just now, tcari394 said:

The Penguins beat the Bruins last night and now this!   What a day to be alive!  🙂

It's always good to see Marchand lose!

[Blizz]

12km NAM drops me to 5" with mixing... 3km still looks good but I fear we trending in a bad direction still

[jbrumberg]

@telejunkie-  You are/were correct regarding my post, and thanks for your analysis.😎  Hyperglycemic and over-caffeinated exacerbates my "nervous energy"🤪

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Didn’t see any discussion overnight about that horrible disease, virga. Shouldn’t be too much of an issue with this one, as there is no very cold, bone dry air mass around. Hopefully, there will be a vaccine coming out for that shit soon also. When it does, i’ll sign up and be a test rat for those trials. 

[tcari394]

Just now, bigben89 said:

It's always good to see Marchand lose!

I hate him - but the way he blew past Letang and scored his second goal was super impressive.

Still a turd though.

[Chris2333]

1 minute ago, bigben89 said:

It's always good to see Marchand lose!

 

Everytime I see him. 

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Didn’t see any discussion overnight about that horrible disease, virga. Shouldn’t be too much of an issue with this one, as there is no very cold, bone dry air mass around. Hopefully, there will be a vaccine coming out for that shit soon also. When it does, i’ll sign up and be a test rat for those trials. 

I was thinking about that this morning.. I agree, should be moist enough to lube the atmosphere pretty quickly. 🤣

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

50 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It might be worth (at some point) labeling the region in the thread title instead of the tags.  I'm at that age where I'm always looking for my readers...

So I miss a ton. I mean, I'm sure I'm leading the league in typos.

I have excellent closing speed. I should catch up quickly; especially since most of the posts are coming from a phone.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

32 minutes ago, jbrumberg said:

The NWS/B-N Office has issued a WWA for this area related to this pending storm(s);

  Reveal hidden contents

Highlights

* Still have details to hash out, but impactful Winter Storm late
  Sat through Sun.

* Dry with seasonable temps on Mon.

* Another impactful system pushes in later on Tue into Wed. Strong
  to damaging winds possible along with heavy precipitation.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...

The main focus of the extended, but still uncertainty in the
forecast. There are two troughs that lift through our region during
this period. The first shortwave lifts from the Great Lakes/Mid
Atlantic late Sat and through southern New England by early Sun. A
deeper shortwave trough lifts from the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi River Valley late Sat into the TN/OH Valley by early
Sun. The trough lifts northeastward through New England by late Sun.
A Miller-A type coastal low will slide nearby/through the region.

Overall have not changed the forecast too much from the previous
shift. Guidance struggling on the degree of phasing and timeframe
this occurs between the 1st shortwave lifting out and the deeper
second shortwave moving in. Depending on the exact timing and
amplitude of things will influence the track and intensity of the
system impacting our region. The change in the latest update is
guidance has been trending a bit further to the southeast with a
later amplification of the surface low. Can clearly see this with
total QPF probs of AOA 1 inch shifting further to the SE. Due to
this opted to expand our Winter Storm Watch a tier of counties
further southeast.

The GEPS along with the GEM are the most amplified solution and our
phasing occurring right over us, which neg tilts the trough/cuts off
closer to our south coast. This results in  higher snow totals
across the interior. At the moment the GEPS/GEM appear to be the
outlier with essentially all of their members hitting at this
solution. The majority of GEFS/EPS members along with GFS/ECMWF have
trended to a less amplified wave with phasing occurring a bit late in
the game. This still results in an impactful snowfall, but the
highest totals shift further to the SE versus a mostly interior
event. Still would see snowfall across the interior, but less
realized than what the GEPS/GEM advertising. Stay tuned as many of
these details hinge on mesoscale factors, such as banding, which are
better forecast when we get into more convective allowing models
window.

Still have concerns along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with
the temps and exact ptypes. This is still clearly see this per
GEFS/EPS probs of 2m temps AOA 32 degrees with a tight probability
gradient. This will roughly be where the rain/snow line will be,
which will impact ptypes and where exactly heavy wet snow is
located. The heavy wet snow coupled with strong winds could result
in potential power outages. Further to the NW ptype will not be as
much of a concern with temps remaining cold enough for all snow. The
big question is how much QPF is realized as we`ve got two surges of
precip. Can clearly see this idea via the NAM in Bufkit soundings
with an initial lift within the DGZ late Sat/early Sun AM. This is
followed by dry air intrusion Sun AM and followed by another uptick
in moisture later on Sun as the system is deepening and decent lift
within the DBZ - depending on where you`re located.

The moisture remains high for this time of year with PWATs of 0.5 to
0.75 inches, which is around the 75th-90th percentile per SPC
sounding climo for CHH. Will also have strong winds, especially
along the coastal plain where Wind Advisories may be needed.
Guidance indicating a 30-50 kt E to NE jet sliding through late Sat
into Sun. Winds turn more NNE/N later on Sun as the system pivots
offshore. Have bumped up our wind speeds/gusts a bit from the
previous forecast. At this point gusts of 25-35 mph across the
interior are possible and for the coastal plain 35-50 mph. Best shot
for the 50 mph gusts is across the Cape/Islands.

 

The 🚜 will be pre-positioned just "in case."  We'll see.  I like the predicted storm track.

And some snow graphics:

That track shown is snow track for a lot.

[BossaNova]

23 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Wait...what? You have to be under a watch, not an advisory. If anyone on this forum is best positioned to be in jackpot zone at this time, imo it's you. You're on the east side of the Berkshires, right? So you'll get some upslope effect too. When this thing wraps up, I'd be pretty surprised if you don't see a foot.(did I just jinx you?) I think the trailing vort will keep things going for a while across the region.

Yes, watch. Looking at the BOX High/Low End Potential and Expected maps it's Worcester that is tops on all of them with a min of 8" and max of 16".

[TLChip]

Towels are gonna be throw today. Maybe even mine 🤣

[Psu1313]

So we've almost come full circle from 5 days out with some changes. The NAM and HRRR are pulling the storm through West Virginia and then heading toward the coast whereas the GFS has been dipping down into the gulf.  Going to have to start looking at current setup here, but with the family having the plague I don't have the time right now to give a good analysis. I'm really concerned for SEPA right now as they may end up mostly rain. 

I remain concerned about New Jersey, but that is due to so many reasons that do not include the weather. 

Edited January 5 by Psu1313

[Penn State]

4 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

So we've almost come full circle from 5 days out with some changes. The NAM and HRRR are pulling the storm through West Virginia and then heading toward the coast whereas the GFS has been dipping down into the gulf.  Going to have to start looking at current setup here, but with the family having the plague I don't have the time right now to give a good analysis. I'm really concerned for SEPA right now as they my end up mostly rain. 

I remain concerned about New Jersey, but that is due to so many reasons that do not include the weather. 

SEPA is definitely in trouble.. South and east of I-81 and I-76... and I should say, some of those areas still stand to do well, but I think are most susceptible to the changeover. 

Edited January 5 by Penn State

[telejunkie]

Let's see if Central Park can finally end its drought....feel like it's the trailing vort that would provide it if so.

Edited January 5 by telejunkie

[Penn State]

RGEM or "Reggie"... Ball is in your court now. 

[Phillyfan]

4 minutes ago, Penn State said:

SEPA is definitely in trouble.. South and east of I-81 and I-76.  

Well crap. Maybe we'll get our storm later this month. Can't remember the last time I had a winter storm watch or warning.

[Wtkidz]

8 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Towels are gonna be throw today. Maybe even mine 🤣

My towel will remain firmly around my neck as I watch from the sidelines and listen to the potter patter of the rain. And enjoy my sticks and leaves people. 

[TLChip]

12z better shape up for SEPA…. Afk for awhile

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Phillyfan said:

Well crap. Maybe we'll get our storm later this month. Can't remember the last time I had a winter storm watch or warning.

I'm actually really confident you will.. Once that MJO comes back around.. Plus, with the polar vortex breakdown.. late month is a green light at the moment. 

[Penn State]

I don't know why I just thought about this.. but thinking about members that I miss.. Anyone know about paletitsnow? or AccuChris? Enjoyed their commentary.