January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[clm]

Slight change for LI.  Previously for both days was < 1/2".  Sunday is now < 1".  So possibly colder temps or precipitation moved a tic further south.

Saturday night - New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday - New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, MaineJay said:

It's just buried, kind of a taboo subject those cutters are. 

 

Ok - guess I'll have to dig a bit deeper than I did the first time. (losing my edge in my old age )

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Ok - guess I'll have to dig a bit deeper than I did the first time. (losing my edge in my old age )

It might be worth (at some point) labeling the region in the thread title instead of the tags.  I'm at that age where I'm always looking for my readers...

So I miss a ton. I mean, I'm sure I'm leading the league in typos.

[Penn State]

Well.. The 12z NAM just initialized.. Wonder if this last minute NW shift continues? 

[Undertakerson2.0]

12Z HRRR is coming in snowier than 6z was. I gotta run for now. Enjoy being NAMd

[clm]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It might be worth (at some point) labeling the region in the thread title instead of the tags.  I'm at that age where I'm always looking for my readers...

So I miss a ton. I mean, I'm sure I'm leading the league in typos.

[Jon Snow]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It might be worth (at some point) labeling the region in the thread title instead of the tags.  I'm at that age where I'm always looking for my readers...

So I miss a ton. I mean, I'm sure I'm leading the league in typos.

I have spent the last year not being aware of the active weather table to find these threads, not sure how, other than I know nothing.  But, I think I will blame it on not having my readers on. 

[Wtkidz]

12 Z HRRR

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, clm said:

John Candy is definitely one of the GOATs.  My wife and I just watched the vacation movies with our teenage kids, John Candy has is cameo in the first one, we told them Uncle Buck is next on the list.

[PA road DAWG]

9 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Well.. The 12z NAM just initialized.. Wonder if this last minute NW shift continues? 

This Nw shift needs to stop.  Have you seen the latest hrrr and euro.   Now shows lots of mixing up in NEPA 

[Greenjacket]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

John Candy is definitely one of the GOATs.  My wife and I just watched the vacation movies with our teenage kids, John Candy has is cameo in the first one, we told them Uncle Buck is next on the list.

OH yes he is - Planes, Trains and Automobiles, The Great Outdoors, Stripes, Cool Runnings and SPACEBALLS!

[JDClapper]

Just now, PA road DAWG said:

This Nw shift needs to stop.  Have you seen the latest hrrr and euro.   Now shows lots of mixing up in NEPA 

Its to the point Kutchera is LESS than 10:1 even back here on HRRR. Albeit, tenths, but damn. 😮

[WeatherFlash]

Mby never does well with staying all snow. So i figured at somepoint the mixing would come into forecast/play here. 

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

This Nw shift needs to stop.  Have you seen the latest hrrr and euro.   Now shows lots of mixing up in NEPA 

Yep.. Haven't had an all snow event in some time. Still hopeful. 

[Harley8778]

Looking like slop down here. Hoping we can squeeze an inch or two out before the changeover but I'm not holding my breath. I just want an excuse to use the plow I bought for my ATV a couple of years ago on my freshly paved driveway. I think I jinxed snow down here permanently by buying it. 😂

[jbrumberg]

The NWS/B-N Office has issued a WWA for this area related to this pending storm(s);

Spoiler

Highlights

* Still have details to hash out, but impactful Winter Storm late
  Sat through Sun.

* Dry with seasonable temps on Mon.

* Another impactful system pushes in later on Tue into Wed. Strong
  to damaging winds possible along with heavy precipitation.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...

The main focus of the extended, but still uncertainty in the
forecast. There are two troughs that lift through our region during
this period. The first shortwave lifts from the Great Lakes/Mid
Atlantic late Sat and through southern New England by early Sun. A
deeper shortwave trough lifts from the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi River Valley late Sat into the TN/OH Valley by early
Sun. The trough lifts northeastward through New England by late Sun.
A Miller-A type coastal low will slide nearby/through the region.

Overall have not changed the forecast too much from the previous
shift. Guidance struggling on the degree of phasing and timeframe
this occurs between the 1st shortwave lifting out and the deeper
second shortwave moving in. Depending on the exact timing and
amplitude of things will influence the track and intensity of the
system impacting our region. The change in the latest update is
guidance has been trending a bit further to the southeast with a
later amplification of the surface low. Can clearly see this with
total QPF probs of AOA 1 inch shifting further to the SE. Due to
this opted to expand our Winter Storm Watch a tier of counties
further southeast.

The GEPS along with the GEM are the most amplified solution and our
phasing occurring right over us, which neg tilts the trough/cuts off
closer to our south coast. This results in  higher snow totals
across the interior. At the moment the GEPS/GEM appear to be the
outlier with essentially all of their members hitting at this
solution. The majority of GEFS/EPS members along with GFS/ECMWF have
trended to a less amplified wave with phasing occurring a bit late in
the game. This still results in an impactful snowfall, but the
highest totals shift further to the SE versus a mostly interior
event. Still would see snowfall across the interior, but less
realized than what the GEPS/GEM advertising. Stay tuned as many of
these details hinge on mesoscale factors, such as banding, which are
better forecast when we get into more convective allowing models
window.

Still have concerns along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with
the temps and exact ptypes. This is still clearly see this per
GEFS/EPS probs of 2m temps AOA 32 degrees with a tight probability
gradient. This will roughly be where the rain/snow line will be,
which will impact ptypes and where exactly heavy wet snow is
located. The heavy wet snow coupled with strong winds could result
in potential power outages. Further to the NW ptype will not be as
much of a concern with temps remaining cold enough for all snow. The
big question is how much QPF is realized as we`ve got two surges of
precip. Can clearly see this idea via the NAM in Bufkit soundings
with an initial lift within the DGZ late Sat/early Sun AM. This is
followed by dry air intrusion Sun AM and followed by another uptick
in moisture later on Sun as the system is deepening and decent lift
within the DBZ - depending on where you`re located.

The moisture remains high for this time of year with PWATs of 0.5 to
0.75 inches, which is around the 75th-90th percentile per SPC
sounding climo for CHH. Will also have strong winds, especially
along the coastal plain where Wind Advisories may be needed.
Guidance indicating a 30-50 kt E to NE jet sliding through late Sat
into Sun. Winds turn more NNE/N later on Sun as the system pivots
offshore. Have bumped up our wind speeds/gusts a bit from the
previous forecast. At this point gusts of 25-35 mph across the
interior are possible and for the coastal plain 35-50 mph. Best shot
for the 50 mph gusts is across the Cape/Islands.

 

The 🚜 will be pre-positioned just "in case."  We'll see.  I like the predicted storm track.

And some snow graphics:

[Penn State]

Also.. and I know it's just superficial.. but I really want the "Winter Storm Warning".. not an Advisory. Haven't had one of those in a long, long time. 

[clm]

I have not read every post in this thread but I don't recall seeing the normal usual video that is needed.

 

[telejunkie]

7 minutes ago, jbrumberg said:

The NWS/B-N Office has issued a WWA for this area related to this pending storm(s);

  Reveal hidden contents

Highlights

* Still have details to hash out, but impactful Winter Storm late
  Sat through Sun.

* Dry with seasonable temps on Mon.

* Another impactful system pushes in later on Tue into Wed. Strong
  to damaging winds possible along with heavy precipitation.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...

The main focus of the extended, but still uncertainty in the
forecast. There are two troughs that lift through our region during
this period. The first shortwave lifts from the Great Lakes/Mid
Atlantic late Sat and through southern New England by early Sun. A
deeper shortwave trough lifts from the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi River Valley late Sat into the TN/OH Valley by early
Sun. The trough lifts northeastward through New England by late Sun.
A Miller-A type coastal low will slide nearby/through the region.

Overall have not changed the forecast too much from the previous
shift. Guidance struggling on the degree of phasing and timeframe
this occurs between the 1st shortwave lifting out and the deeper
second shortwave moving in. Depending on the exact timing and
amplitude of things will influence the track and intensity of the
system impacting our region. The change in the latest update is
guidance has been trending a bit further to the southeast with a
later amplification of the surface low. Can clearly see this with
total QPF probs of AOA 1 inch shifting further to the SE. Due to
this opted to expand our Winter Storm Watch a tier of counties
further southeast.

The GEPS along with the GEM are the most amplified solution and our
phasing occurring right over us, which neg tilts the trough/cuts off
closer to our south coast. This results in  higher snow totals
across the interior. At the moment the GEPS/GEM appear to be the
outlier with essentially all of their members hitting at this
solution. The majority of GEFS/EPS members along with GFS/ECMWF have
trended to a less amplified wave with phasing occurring a bit late in
the game. This still results in an impactful snowfall, but the
highest totals shift further to the SE versus a mostly interior
event. Still would see snowfall across the interior, but less
realized than what the GEPS/GEM advertising. Stay tuned as many of
these details hinge on mesoscale factors, such as banding, which are
better forecast when we get into more convective allowing models
window.

Still have concerns along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with
the temps and exact ptypes. This is still clearly see this per
GEFS/EPS probs of 2m temps AOA 32 degrees with a tight probability
gradient. This will roughly be where the rain/snow line will be,
which will impact ptypes and where exactly heavy wet snow is
located. The heavy wet snow coupled with strong winds could result
in potential power outages. Further to the NW ptype will not be as
much of a concern with temps remaining cold enough for all snow. The
big question is how much QPF is realized as we`ve got two surges of
precip. Can clearly see this idea via the NAM in Bufkit soundings
with an initial lift within the DGZ late Sat/early Sun AM. This is
followed by dry air intrusion Sun AM and followed by another uptick
in moisture later on Sun as the system is deepening and decent lift
within the DBZ - depending on where you`re located.

The moisture remains high for this time of year with PWATs of 0.5 to
0.75 inches, which is around the 75th-90th percentile per SPC
sounding climo for CHH. Will also have strong winds, especially
along the coastal plain where Wind Advisories may be needed.
Guidance indicating a 30-50 kt E to NE jet sliding through late Sat
into Sun. Winds turn more NNE/N later on Sun as the system pivots
offshore. Have bumped up our wind speeds/gusts a bit from the
previous forecast. At this point gusts of 25-35 mph across the
interior are possible and for the coastal plain 35-50 mph. Best shot
for the 50 mph gusts is across the Cape/Islands.

 

 

Wait...what? You have to be under a watch, not an advisory. If anyone on this forum is best positioned to be in jackpot zone at this time, imo it's you. You're on the east side of the Berkshires, right? So you'll get some upslope effect too. When this thing wraps up, I'd be pretty surprised if you don't see a foot.(did I just jinx you?) I think the trailing vort will keep things going for a while across the region.

Edited January 5 by telejunkie

[Blizz]

13 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

This Nw shift needs to stop.  Have you seen the latest hrrr and euro.   Now shows lots of mixing up in NEPA 

It's ridiculous.... just want a pure snow event for once, it's been a while. 

[Penn State]

3K NAM is at 998MB in the Carolinas... then goes up to 1003, Lol.. 

Edited January 5 by Penn State

[PA road DAWG]

Hmm…I’m becoming concerned here folks.  Inland runner ?
 

Edited January 5 by PA road DAWG

[Wtkidz]

3 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Also.. and I know it's just superficial.. but I really want the "Winter Storm Warning".. not an Advisory. Haven't had one of those in a long, long time. 

Okay I will warn you .

there is a winter storm coming.   It is WINTER  and a  STORM is coming . This your WARNING.

[NEPAsnow]

slightly south of previous run

[clm]

1 minute ago, Wtkidz said:

Okay I will warn you .

there is a winter storm coming.   It is WINTER  and a  STORM is coming . This your WARNING.