January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Wtkidz]

A chance for 10 flakes

[Undertakerson2.0]

I saw mention of our boy Duff last evening during the overnight discussions. I hear from him from time to time.

Though it's been a coupla months since last, he's doing relatively well after a series of what most would consider "life changing" events (I'll say no more). I'll reach out to him and do a check - at the very least I'll ask if he has any well wishes to extend. 

[PA road DAWG]

7 hours ago, telejunkie said:

So if this thing comes together… @PA road DAWG is providing the steaks and you’ll cover the whiskey…? Don’t worry…i can being the bring the baked potatoes

Im down! 

[Undertakerson2.0]

9z SREF trimmed snow totals on the S/E side of the map. Not by a whole lot, yet noticeable. I no longer pay much attention to SREF - will start to care more about it with 21z output tonight - so I won't dive into details

[TLChip]

I’ll catch some rain and send the snow to PARD, steaks and booze sound good. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, TLChip said:

I’ll catch some rain and send the snow to PARD, steaks and booze sound good. 

Just be careful he doesn't over serve you. He might pull you over as soon as you leave his driveway - especially if the storm underperforms. 😁

[DanaEaves]

So the consensus in Southern Sussex county/northern Morris county NJ is like 6 inches? Give or take an inch or 2?

my 17 year old son works at shop rite. He works from 3-8 tonight and I’ve warned him it’s about to be a shitshow. You know all those people afraid they won’t get to the grocery store all weekend will be going this evening. He’s about to be initiated into the bread/milk/eggs snow crisis 🤣🤣🤣

[Psu1313]

34 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Im down! 

Lights and sirens all the way

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, DanaEaves said:

So the consensus in Southern Sussex county/northern Morris county NJ is like 6 inches? Give or take an inch or 2?

my 17 year old son works at shop rite. He works from 3-8 tonight and I’ve warned him it’s about to be a shitshow. You know all those people afraid they won’t get to the grocery store all weekend will be going this evening. He’s about to be initiated into the bread/milk/eggs snow crisis 🤣🤣🤣

Baptism by Fire. How I learned to be a bartender if I'm honest about it. I was an emergency lasts minute stand in for a regular tender who fell ill. 300 people golfer's stag at a country club. It was helter skelter - but I shined and earned my stripes (and that is how I ultimately met my wife - we celebrate 36 years in two weeks from now)

[RobB]

12 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Baptism by Fire. How I learned to be a bartender if I'm honest about it. I was an emergency lasts minute stand in for a regular tender who fell ill. 300 people golfer's stag at a country club. It was helter skelter - but I shined and earned my stripes (and that is how I ultimately met my wife - we celebrate 36 years in two weeks from now)

An early Happy Anniversary to ya!

[DanaEaves]

13 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Baptism by Fire. How I learned to be a bartender if I'm honest about it. I was an emergency lasts minute stand in for a regular tender who fell ill. 300 people golfer's stag at a country club. It was helter skelter - but I shined and earned my stripes (and that is how I ultimately met my wife - we celebrate 36 years in two weeks from now)

Happy anniversary!! 

[Penn State]

06z Euro trimmed totals a bit.. and doesn't seem as robust (particularly to the south) 

Edited January 5 by Penn State

[Wtkidz]

24 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Baptism by Fire. How I learned to be a bartender if I'm honest about it. I was an emergency lasts minute stand in for a regular tender who fell ill. 300 people golfer's stag at a country club. It was helter skelter - but I shined and earned my stripes (and that is how I ultimately met my wife - we celebrate 36 years in two weeks from now)

Congrats on finding someone who could stand you that long . KIDDING  of course.

Got you beat though as this Wednesday will be 37 years  for my wife and I.  She definitely deserves a medal for putting up with me . 

This storm is like my wedding day,  got married at a friends home  in Kilmarnock, VA  along the Chesapeake Bay and it  was pouring rain. Went on honeymoon in West Virginia  near Martinsburg and had 6” of snow .

same sharp cutoffs.

Edited January 5 by Wtkidz

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, Wtkidz said:

Congrats on finding someone who could stand you that long . KIDDING  of course.

Got you beat though as this Wednesday will be 37 years  for my wife and I.  She definitely deserves a medal for putting up with me . 

This storm is like my wedding day,  got married at a friends home  in Kilmarnock, VA  along the Chesapeake Bay and it  was pouring rain. Went on honeymoon in West Virginia  near Martinsbg and had 6” of snow .

same sharp cutoffs.

Who doesn't love a happy ending? 

Thanks and Congrats. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, Penn State said:

06z Euro trimmed totals a bit.. and doesn't seem as robust (particularly to the south) 

Not shocked tbh - this is definitely a last minute trend that my snow neighbors will not like one bit. First the SREF, then the HRRR, now the Euro all trimming within 24 -36 hours of event. Early morning jitters? Or sign of things to come.

This is exactly why I don't jump to new numbers based on just some model output. I pin down what I think is reasonable and ride that from start to end (nearly always). 

[Penn State]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Not shocked tbh - this is definitely a last minute trend that my snow neighbors will not like one bit. First the SREF, then the HRRR, now the Euro all trimming within 24 -36 hours of event. Early morning jitters? Or sign of things to come.

This is exactly why I don't jump to new numbers based on just some model output. I pin down what I think is reasonable and ride that from start to end (nearly always). 

It's a good strategy.. model to model variation can drive you crazy. I've been in the 4-6" camp from the beginning, but last night's runs had me thinking those number might have a chance to push 6-8". You mentioned the RGEM.. It's been very consistent this whole time. 

[MDBlueridge]

2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I think I'm still a loooong way off from ever trusting 3K NAM output. At least outside of 24 hours anyway. Far too erratic for my liking - seems to over do most every critical feature. 

I love the 3K. Not for precip output or strength. But since it came out it has nailed precip types and temps down here in central apps above 1500-2000'. It ramps up output everyday 12z/00z and dulls down off hour runs. euro/gfs/ukmet etc are terrible down here for any meso details even though euro is hi-rez it stinks here for precip output and temps. 

Old Pokety Poke has sold me on the RGEM and I am stunned how it staying stable run after run. They're definitely the two I use inside 60. What works here doesn't seem to work for others and I believe @telejunkie has said how bad the 3k stinks up his way in Canada. I believe its because the 3k doesn't like how he says the word "about" 

I also think kuchera and 10:1 snowmaps are complete hogwash. there I said it. hogwash. Take that mods. 

 

Edited January 5 by MDBlueridge

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

I love the 3K. Not for precip output or strength. But since it came out it has nailed precip types and temps down here in central apps above 1500-2000'. It ramps up output everyday 12z/00z and dulls down off hour runs. euro/gfs/ukmet etc are terrible down here for any meso details even though euro is hi-rez it stinks here for precip output and temps. 

Old Pokety Poke has sold me on the RGEM and I am stunned how it staying stable run after run. They're definitely the two I use inside 60. What works here doesn't seem to work for others and I believe @telejunkie has said how bad the 3k stinks up his way in Canada. I believe its because the 3k doesn't like how he says the word "about" 

 

"a-boat" LMAO

I was in Punta Cana last month and started to talk with a guy next to me. As soon as he said the word "out", I said - "you're from Canada". A smile came to his face, almost sheepish and he said, "that oh-bvious eh?" 

Edited January 5 by Undertakerson2.0

[Wtkidz]

06z  3K NAM FWIW 

 

[JDClapper]

40 minutes ago, DanaEaves said:

So the consensus in Southern Sussex county/northern Morris county NJ is like 6 inches? Give or take an inch or 2?

my 17 year old son works at shop rite. He works from 3-8 tonight and I’ve warned him it’s about to be a shitshow. You know all those people afraid they won’t get to the grocery store all weekend will be going this evening. He’s about to be initiated into the bread/milk/eggs snow crisis 🤣🤣🤣

This drives me nuts lol 

OK, I get it for rural people, it may be a day or three to be fully able to get out, but in town, even after our 25" we could get around by that afternoon. 

[MDBlueridge]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

This drives me nuts lol 

OK, I get it for rural people, it may be a day or three to be fully able to get out, but in town, even after our 25" we could get around by that afternoon. 

The people on the outskirts know how little the Port has in the way of snow equipment, 

Fire her up! 

[PA road DAWG]

19 minutes ago, Penn State said:

06z Euro trimmed totals a bit.. and doesn't seem as robust (particularly to the south) 

Trended much warmer.  Now showing some mixing even up near me.  Same for the 9z SREF’s 

[JDClapper]

Just now, MDBlueridge said:

The people on the outskirts know how little the Port has in the way of snow equipment, 

Fire her up! 

Haha, I KNEW you would show our Old Bessy! 

[Wtkidz]

15 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

I love the 3K. Not for precip output or strength. But since it came out it has nailed precip types and temps down here in central apps above 1500-2000'. It ramps up output everyday 12z/00z and dulls down off hour runs. euro/gfs/ukmet etc are terrible down here for any meso details even though euro is hi-rez it stinks here for precip output and temps. 

Old Pokety Poke has sold me on the RGEM and I am stunned how it staying stable run after run. They're definitely the two I use inside 60. What works here doesn't seem to work for others and I believe @telejunkie has said how bad the 3k stinks up his way in Canada. I believe its because the 3k doesn't like how he says the word "about" 

 

No too much.  A- boot. EH ?

[MaineJay]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

We have no thread for this next one - but we SHOULD... (Midwest does, of course)

Let's see. Snow melt + rain fall + easterly fetch up to 50mph = UGH

It's just buried, kind of a taboo subject those cutters are.