January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Wide shot, just because I love that ocean storm.  Azores getting smacked, must be a wild place. Not sure it's exactly a tourist destination, but I'd love to visit one day.  Seems like the temps must be 55°-65° all year long.

Anywho, our boy is chugging along

Our unicorn is what gave me full confidence in this event as soon as it showed up on the GFS 🙂

[MaineJay]

Kickoff for the Pats v Jets.  Two teams having a crap year, but this could be fun to watch.

[Undertakerson2.0]

I did not expect the GFS to go Xrated for the 1/19 storm 🤔😬

[TLChip]

Seems like the warm nose is coming a bit north on these overnights.

[MaineJay]

4 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Seems like the warm nose is coming a bit north on these overnights.

Things look a hair more amped at H8 and H7.  The 6z was particularly strong with any TROWAL.  interesting to see how 12z handles it. Trend or blip?

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

I think I'm still a loooong way off from ever trusting 3K NAM output. At least outside of 24 hours anyway. Far too erratic for my liking - seems to over do most every critical feature. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

My sister called me last night and cursed me out. Blamed me for her trips to the grocery store being a nightmare - people everywhere! 

[Wtkidz]

Strangest map I have seen for LWX.  counties below where I live have advisory and south east at least HWO. But then the  snow hole continues 

Edited January 5 by Wtkidz

[Undertakerson2.0]

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Entirely worth the read. RTC -- don't get too worked up over some of the language

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Entirely worth the read. RTC -- don't get too worked up over some of the language

Beautiful language

[MaineJay]

29 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I think I'm still a loooong way off from ever trusting 3K NAM output. At least outside of 24 hours anyway. Far too erratic for my liking - seems to over do most every critical feature. 

The high res models sure seem to have their quirks. FV3 struggles with temp quite often, even at initialization at times. Weird precip shields as well.

 I kinda prefer the coarser stuff often that forces one to extrapolate using the more general data available.

[Undertakerson2.0]

CTP put up a briefing - here's the key take aways

[Undertakerson2.0]

The greatest uncertainty in the rain-snow transition is from southeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey into southern New England. People in those areas should still be prepared for the possibility of snow, and changes to the forecast. North of those areas, confidence in heavy snow is higher. - WPC Short Range Discussion

Edited January 5 by Undertakerson2.0

[so_whats_happening]

I wonder if they will ever issue advisories/watches/warnings through half the counties on the edge of CTP like they do further east under mt holly's domain.

[Undertakerson2.0]

I gotta say it, Baby Gem sure has been rock steady with its portrayal of this event. Not sure it's right, but that's been impressive

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I wonder if they will ever issue advisories/watches/warnings through half the counties on the edge of CTP like they do further east under mt holly's domain.

My WFO will cut mine into 3 parts pretty regularly. Coastal Cumberland, interior Cumberland, and the "fish tail", basically 2 towns.  Kind of a necessity when you go from the ocean to the foothills.

[Undertakerson2.0]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I wonder if they will ever issue advisories/watches/warnings through half the counties on the edge of CTP like they do further east under mt holly's domain.

That's gotta be maddening for the folks that live over there. I know Tony L. (Powerstroke7.4 to some) is driven bonkers by them 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

My WFO will cut mine into 3 parts pretty regularly. Coastal Cumberland, interior Cumberland, and the "fish tail", basically 2 towns.  Kind of a necessity when you go from the ocean to the foothills.

Outside of elevation in the regions covered by Mt Holly, there is not really any such consideration so drastic. 

To answer the question about whether CTP will divide - their track record argues against it. Maybe in some localized summer tstorm situation, but I doubt they'll divide in winter (though they really should)

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

That's gotta be maddening for the folks that live over there. I know Tony L. (Powerstroke7.4 to some) is driven bonkers by them 

Yea my grandmother legit lives right on the line between the 2 sections in montgomery county. It is funny the one near philly goes 1-3" snow while the section to the west goes like 5-9" of snow.

[so_whats_happening]

I see York got a watch. Elizabethtown/ Mt. Joy and manheim have nothing up but guarantee they will get a more solid accumulation than I will in downtown Lancaster.

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I see York got a watch. Elizabethtown/ Mt. Joy and manheim have nothing up but guarantee they will get a more solid accumulation than I will in downtown Lancaster.

reminds me to go look at Millersville U is thinking. Our boy Kyle E. still there I believe. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Yep - he's still there https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

[Undertakerson2.0]

Not surprisingly, his map looks really well thought out. 

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

reminds me to go look at Millersville U is thinking. Our boy Kyle E. still there I believe. 

Lol yea... Ill just say good for him for now.