January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Rickrd]

He 69

[Rickrd]

Clown Map

[Rickrd]

Peace. I’m out. 1 more day of model runs. 

[tool483]

6 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Peace. I’m out. 1 more day of model runs. 

Thanks for posting the play by play with the euro, apprecaited! 

There's a storm a brewing

[SnowloverSid]

2 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

I luv watching local stations just to see what they say. Our local LV station has some new talent in weather . So the dude does a really good job, shows the least expected 2-4, call of 3-6 if any mixing, and 6-10 ( some of latest models) if none, and discussed whether or not ( it is weather or not?0, there is any mixing. All good. Then the dude shows the freakin GRAF simulated run, which totally crapped the bed on everything he just stated. Had mix line blowing all the way through Poc's , AND precip ending around 1 am. C'mon man!

Fun to watch.

If the Mix Line is going all the way to the Poconos, it will be too close 4 comfort for my vicarious Binghamton snow party. That reminds me: I need to go to the store and get some vodka in case the Mix Line hightails it to my old stomping grounds!

[Pghsnow]

SREFs took a huge jump, by 2 inches for me

Edited January 5 by Pghsnow

[Pghsnow]

NAM way more amped

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

Pgh getting NAMed

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

I've been NAMed. Looks like a fish.. The Fish that saved Pittsburgh...

Edited January 5 by Pghsnow

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

[Undertakerson2.0]

7 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I was in utero, lovely Lynn, MA. 

I was a Senior in HS, Skipped two entire days of classes to party with Nancy G while her parents were stuck at an airport in SC somewhere. We learned quite a bit they didn't teach in school over those two days 😉 

[Pghsnow]

Oh the model fun especially when you have a fight Saturday. Now RGEM which was the most west goes east. I hope for my flight sake that is the case and the NAM is wrong. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

In other news, since the NAMbino is finished running. I reached out to ST tonight and he said he will circle back , 

And for the record, I know why I asked back - use me to get to ST. I'm  OK with that, cuz as many of you know, I am quite shallow. 

It's your dashing good looks and charming personality. yeah,,,that's..the..ticket. 

6 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I have to okay new members, chances are I pass out soon.  If I wake up to pee (it's better than wetting the bed), I'll check for noobs.

Damn noobs - careful who you let in. I hear he's from Massachusetts ya know. 

6 hours ago, RobB said:

" If I wake up to pee (it's better than wetting the bed), I'll check for noobs."

 

I'm not sure what to do with this statement! 😁🙃

I know what I had to do with it - wipe coffee off of the laptop screen

6 hours ago, Lazman said:

Depends ...... I'll show myself out.....

Bud-um-boom. He'll be here all week folks - well at least all weekend, don't forget to tip the waitstaff.

5 hours ago, Lazman said:

Is WxDisco still a thing, or did most of us migrate here? Inquiring minds want to know. (Not really into paying for weather, ya know.) 

This just in - Disco still sucks. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

23f out  the old weather window this morning. Easily the coldest of the season. 

CTP going all in. They must have a new sheriff in the office. Have to check with SoWhat'sHappening perhaps 

 

 

Edited January 5 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

The storm looks to make at least one heavy snow band which may
pivot as it passes through the SErn half of the CWA. The fgen
forcing and possible CSI should lead to a few hrs of 1"/hr
rates. The most likely place to see the heavest rates for the
longest time is the Ridge and Valley Region (between UNV and
MDT). Harrisburg will break it`s snow drought. The sfc low will
likely pass over Central VA and then KSBY before heading out to
sea Sat evening. The sfc high does not put up much of a fight,
and the significant short wave rolls over fairly quickly.
However, the is very good moisture transport in the lowest 5kft
off the Atlantic. The deeply saturated atmosphere will be
conducive to generating a heavy, wet snowfall with the DGZ up
around 12-14kft and lots of sub-freezing, saturated air beneath
the DGZ. The temps aloft look very much below freezing to start
with across the S, but WAA should work up a very meager warm
nose around 2-3kft aloft over the far srn tier (S of the
Turnpike. The lack of a deeper warm nose should keep the threat
of ZR away. It would be mainly a snow to snow-rain mix late in
the aftn over the S. The far SE, esp SE of the city of Lancaster,
will see more warm air through the lowest 6-8kft where the temp
will dance around the 0C line and end up at a sfc where the
temps will be near 35-36F in the aftn. That will result in a
transition from snow to plain rain there, but the nrn/nern
parts of Lancaster Co could get near 5-6" of snow.

Main tweaks were to the SF grids/amounts. We did increase them
1-1.5" across the board in the expected sweet spot between UNV
and MDT. That puts a couple of 8" pixels on the map with a wide
swath of 6" in the current watch area.

[Pghsnow]

[MaineJay]

Rooster shift is the best.

GYX light on the details, basically punting to the short rangers.

Quote

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Snow will begin to overspread the region Saturday evening as a
shortwave trough arrives while surface low emerges off the Mid-
Atlantic coast and slowly moves to the ENE and deepens through
the course of the night. Snow will initially be confined across
southern NH during the evening but is expected to fill in for
most other areas through the course of Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Snow is then expected to continue for the better
part of Sunday for much of the region but should begin to taper
off from west to east in the late afternoon into the evening
hours as the low begins to pull away from the area, and we lose
forcing and gain some drier air.

I have not made too many changes to the overall forecast as
highest amounts are still expected for southern NH and SW ME,
but based on probabilities from the ECMWF ensemble for greater
than 6 inches of snow increasing, I did have enough confidence
to expand the Winter Storm Watch slightly farther north in NH to
include Sullivan and Merrimack counties. While amounts are
still expected to diminish with northward extent, there could be
a pretty decent gradient in amounts, and due to this
uncertainty, will let the day shift to see if any further
expansion is warranted. We will be getting into the window for
hi-res guidance today, and hopefully these will paint a better
picture of the northward extent of the higher snow totals. For
those in the watch area, snow could be heavy at times, and there
is a signal for banding which could certainly boost totals
further with hints of this being SE NH and SW ME. The hi-res
models should also help resolve this potential as well.

 

I do love the box and whiskers snow graphic though, really highlights the range and uncertainty.

[eddygeeme]

Here in Germantown off exit 16 Temps bottomed out at 24 w/DP 18. I still say this will be a temp watching game. Said 2 days ago watch your temps this afternoon and tonight. I will note the ground temps have been at or below freezing the past 2 days tonight will make it 3. 

 

I've seen this play out before. With current conditions I think we trend colder. This doesn't feel like IMBY we're playing catch up where we gotta get it cool enough or the ground is mush,  not cold enough to stick.   Our last changeover event called for  trace to  dusting and we got 2 in and conditions were more marginal here warmish ground temps warmer air mass.

 

In short look at the guidance hug your favorite model or bottle but it's gonna come down to good ole fashion near time/current observations.

Edited January 5 by eddygeeme

[Undertakerson2.0]

8 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Rooster shift is the best.

GYX light on the details, basically punting to the short rangers.

 

I do love the box and whiskers snow graphic though, really highlights the range and uncertainty.

We aren't legion yet the company is excellent 🙂 

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, eddygeeme said:

Here in Germantown off exit 16 Temps bottomed out at 26 w/DP 18. I still say this will be a temp watching game. Said 2 days ago watch your temps this afternoon and tonight. I will note the ground temps have been at or below freezing the past 2 days tonight will make it 3. 

 

I've seen this play out before. With current conditions I think we trend colder. This doesn't feel like IMBY we're playing catch up where we gotta get it cool enough or the ground is mush not cold enough to stick.  Our last changeover event called for  trace to  dusting and we got 2 in and conditions were more marginal here warmish ground temps warmer air mass.

 

In short look at the guidance hug your favorite model or bottle but it's gonna come down to good ole fashion near time/current observations.

It is well that some things never change. 

[MaineJay]

Wide shot, just because I love that ocean storm.  Azores getting smacked, must be a wild place. Not sure it's exactly a tourist destination, but I'd love to visit one day.  Seems like the temps must be 55°-65° all year long.

Anywho, our boy is chugging along

[eddygeeme]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

It is well that some things never change. 

I've always found these set ups more enjoyable to watch vs the ones where you know exactly what you're getting. There will be some surprises out there for sure.