January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Wrapping it up, looking at some of the later model runs, especially the NAM's , you can really see that confluence rolling over the top up north, causing what some were discussing today and why the models have gone higher tonight. 

[ionizer]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Wrapping it up, looking at some of the later model runs, especially the NAM's , you can really see that confluence rolling over the top up north, causing what some were discussing today and why the models have gone higher tonight. 

What is confluence in laymen's terms?

[clm]

Just now, ionizer said:

What is confluence in laymen's terms?

When two or more objects join together

[mikeysed]

GEFS looks cooler, helps marginal areas

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

 

2 minutes ago, ionizer said:

What is confluence in laymen's terms?

It was being discussed for the last couple of days that there was late blocking influencing the storm from up north . If you look at the "lines" there to the northeast , you can see them pressing down, slowing the storm progression. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

My GGG Grandson Jake

Lol I love how MU is highlighted

[so_whats_happening]

I always have mentioned this in the past but watch your dew points leading up to the storm. Would have loved to see the low teens and even single digits down this way to know that there was a solid cold airmass in place but upper teens aren't gonna cut it.

Just taking a look at the airmass over the Ohio valley now you can see it is rather marginal that typically comes into this area within about 24 hours time.

[mikeysed]

Ukie unfortunately has nothing for the city basically. Tight gradient and lesser than NAM/GFS

Edited January 5 by mikeysed

[LiveWire_13]

33 minutes ago, clm said:

 

 

Make it baked beans

 

Plenty of smoke around those butts. As much as I drooled over that bourbon collection, I'd hate to be snowed-in with the Blazing Saddles boys.

Then again, so many models are pushing rain on us across LI. After multiple soakers last few weeks, I'd be OK with dry weather to sit around the campfire and eating Heinz legumes.

[NJ Snowman]

My first thought when I see a huge snowfall in my yard:  Wow that is incredibly beautiful!!

My second thought:  Crap, who is going to shovel all the shit.

 

 

[ionizer]

8 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

My first thought when I see a huge snowfall in my yard:  Wow that is incredibly beautiful!!

My second thought:  Crap, who is going to shovel all the shit.

 

 

What good red blooded wxspherian doesnt have a snowblower?

 

Having only a shovel is like betting against your team.

[NJ Snowman]

3 minutes ago, ionizer said:

What good red blooded wxspherian doesnt have a snowblower?

 

Having only a shovel is like betting against your team.

That's why I had kids.  In hindsight, should of just got the snowblower, lol.

[clm]

So now weather.gov has pushed some of the snow for my area into Sunday night.  Was supposed to stop Sunday daytime.  So either it picked up extra precipitation or its slowing down.

Rain is back in the mix on Saturday and Sunday.  Figured no rain wouldn't last long.

[Organicforecasting]

1 hour ago, Rickrd said:

Not for me to say, but I get it. The other site was getting crazy. But that was then, this is now. Feels really great here and I, as well as many others, are standing by to learn, teach, laugh and share their wet or snowy pics. 
 

carry on. Leave the past in the past, unless it’s a really memorable snowstorm. 😜

Is it bad that whenever I see your handle I think about this???

 

 

[NJ Snowman]

Mt. Holly"s map still looks like a jigsaw puzzle with the white areas being the missing pieces.

[mikeysed]

1 hour until big Euro run. Who's staying up?

[StretchCT]

Nbm trend

[Organicforecasting]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Nbm trend

For those who don't know, here is a link as to everything that goes into the NBM.

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm

[Rickrd]

0z Euro coming up

[Rickrd]

[Rickrd]

Hmmm. Have some OH Vly energy popping up this run. Let’s see what this does. 

[Rickrd]

[Rickrd]

Hr 51

[Rickrd]

[Rickrd]

Hr 57. LP CTR on model dies as NAM did earlier today and jumps east to convection. 
there will be some correction to this in the end. Looks good up until hr 57 IMO.