January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Horsepants]

4 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

@MDBlueridge don't look now, but your boy HRRR is doing it's thing .. within long range for us MD/PA folk

It's telling us we'll get at least some accumulation at this time frame which is a great baseline. Better than the baseline of hoping to see a white flake in a rain storm

[LongIslanGurlllll]

3 minutes ago, TLChip said:

nightmare fuel, let me go to bed first. rain chances increasing...maybe.

@LongIslanGurlllll said it's coming south so I'm betting on it.

I’d bet on it, maybe not a lot but at least a bottle of Tito’s!

[ionizer]

3 minutes ago, LongIslanGurlllll said:

I’d bet on it, maybe not a lot but at least a bottle of Tito’s!

Mini or a handle

[WeatherFlash]

The energy is looking nice through hr26 on the 500. The trailing energy also significantly less than 18z. At least for now 

[Eaglesfan82]

44 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Ha, I'll chime in for the interior PA ... best storms in my life that I can remember: .. dang, March seems to be legit around here.

12/16/20

3/14/17

3/2/94

3/13/93

93 was def the goat here . There were other greats as well ( 3/14) I was only 11 in 93 but I remember it so well 

[JDClapper]

[MDBlueridge]

14 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

@MDBlueridge don't look now, but your boy HRRR is doing it's thing .. within long range for us MD/PA 

Is HRRR finally becoming almost slightly believable? 

 

[clm]

2 hours ago, TLChip said:

You have the smarties… yall know who you are the Mets & the others that bring great info to the forum.

@MaineJay  @Poco  @Undertakerson2.0 @Penn State  others I’m missing while I’m next to my stove.

 

And the rest of us, snow lovers, model riders(max snow), memers. We make a good bunch. 

Agree, its threads like this that make the watching of the storm that much better and more enjoyable.

[ionizer]

1 minute ago, clm said:

Agree, its threads like this that make the watching of the storm that much better and more enjoyable.

....and frustrating!

[LongIslanGurlllll]

3 minutes ago, ionizer said:

Mini or a handle

Make it a handle 

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

The energy is looking nice through hr26 on the 500. The trailing energy also significantly less than 18z. At least for now 

More 12z-ie, maybe a teensy bit more tucked than12z down the road .. speculating with H5 look

[MaineJay]

NAM is trying to consolidate things. That SW low has backed off a bit in the last 10 runs.

[mikeysed]

NAM is about to explode 💣

[clm]

1 minute ago, mikeysed said:

NAM is about to explode 💣

Not really.  Its taking forever to load the hours on pivotal weather.  By the time the full 0z run is completed, the storm will have already passed here.

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

NAM is about to explode 💣

 

[MaineJay]

Looking slightly more potent in the mid levels. We are talking small fractions here. And stronger can mean more warmth, so that has to be offset by more precip.

[Horsepants]

5 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Is HRRR finally becoming almost slightly believable? 

 

Since I commented on the hrrrr and I haven't posted before I want to be a bit clear. Lol. I realize it ain't the same output every 24 hrs but it will show short term trends and that is a strong signal inside the cone. I love all the models with their own quirks 😆

[JDClapper]

At hr 45 (4pm Saturday).. west edge of snow shield in WPA looks better than 12z (and obviously 18z) 

[WeatherFlash]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

At hr 45 (4pm Saturday).. west edge of snow shield in WPA looks better than 12z (and obviously 18z) 

Mid-level looks potent. She's so close to wanting to go deepening off the coast with some of that trailing energy 

[WeatherFlash]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

Mid-level looks potent. She's so close to wanting to go deepening off the coast with some of that trailing energy 

Actually best its looked midlevel in a few runs.. wouldn't surprise me to see a nice output for nyc here.. next few frames should tell if so.

[Penn State]

This is beautiful! NAM FTW! 

[Horsepants]

Classic low placement should make a lot happy. Whish it was a little colder for all to be snow. 

[JDClapper]

Backfill commencing at 4am Sunday ...

 

[clm]

Just now, Horsepants said:

Classic low placement should make a lot happy. Whish it was a little colder for all to be snow. 

I wish it were.  Then I wouldn't get the dreaded mix.

[clm]

So weather.gov changed its tune.  Previously Saturday and Sunday during the day I was supposed to get < 0.5" of snow and Saturday night and Sunday night were rain.

Now it has changed to Saturday rain and snow mix with Saturday night and Sunday being < 0.5" of snow each.