January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Undertakerson2.0]

Welp, enjoy the 00z mes amis. Le coq doit se percher. 🙂

[Organicforecasting]

On a side note...here is the link to see how many dropsonde's are going to be in the models.

 

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwprod/realtime/

[Burr]

36 minutes ago, Horsepants said:

Long time lurker since the AccuWeather days. Huge thanks to all the posters on here who provide me with endless information and entertainment. I'm a weather freak from way back back. My fascination began with the blizzard of 78 (still the biggest drifts and snow cave building storm I've ever seen). Loved taking the sled with my dad to get fuel oil from the neighbors when we were snowed in and ran out. Saw the great megalopolis  storm of 1983 mentioned in here. I've got some great stories from that one... Hardest I've ever seen it snow. Love the chaos, unpredictability, wonder and beauty of a storm. Anyway I leave the technical physics of it all to smart nerds and sit back and enjoy. Keep up the good work

I remember that one, too!!  That is my first snowstorm memory… had just turned 6, and we walked about a mile to play with my best friend at his house.  Then walked back.

 

[Organicforecasting]

CIPS Analogs...

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php?rundt=2024010412

[jbrumberg]

Spoiler

Saturday night and Sunday

All eyes on Saturday night as a strong low-pressure system is
forecast to pass off the south coast of southern New England
Saturday night through Sunday.

Latest suite of model guidance has come in much more aggressive than
prior runs with a rapidly intensifying low moving up the east coast
Saturday evening. High pressure building off the southeast US coast
on Saturday will set the stage for return flow from the south to
support an enhanced zone of baroclinicity off the coast of the
Carolinas. This will occur ahead of a wave of low-pressure lifting
out of The Gulf of Mexico. These ingredients are what will support
intense cyclogenesis Saturday and Saturday evening. As this system
lifts north Saturday evening, expect WAA driven snow showers to
overspread southern New England sometime after 7PM. Guidance is
supporting an occlusion of the system Saturday night into Sunday
morning which is when the storm would intensify. Ample moisture and
strong QG forcing for ascent should be enough to support at least an
inch of liquid precipitation for much of southern New England
through the duration of the storm. Where temperatures are cold
enough, this may translate to 8 to 12 inches of snow at the surface
for some locations in southern New England. Right now confidence is
highest north and west of the I-95 corridor where temperatures
should be cold enough to support snow accumulations in this range.
Consulting ensemble probability guidance, there is a 60 to 80
percent chance of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 8 inches for the ares
north and west of I95. These locations are where a winter storm
watch has been put into effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening.

Confidence drops off substantially to the south and east where
deterministic and ensemble model guidance is leaning toward 2 meter
surface temps along the coast and over the southeast coastal plain
to be somewhere in the 32 to 36 degree range through the duration of
the storm. This of course will make the snowfall accumulation
forecast sensitive at these locations. How cold temperatures get to
the south and east will be dependent on the storm track, which at
roughly 60 hours out still holds substantial uncertainty. If we
consider a plowable snow to be 3+ inches of the heavy wet variety,
there is anywhere from a 20 to 80 percent chance of a plowable snow
for the areas south and east of I95 including Providence and Boston.
Uncertainty is too high to include these areas in watch as this
time. We will continue to monitor the latest trends in forecast
guidance and may add these areas to the current winter storm watch
if confidence increases.

As far as impacts from the storm go, there is likely to be moderate
to major impacts in the watch area, particularly in Worcester county
where periods of heavy snow will create hazardous driving
conditions. Furthermore, locations near the rain/snow line that
experience heavy/wet snow will be at a risk for power outages from
snow loading issues. We`re also monitoring the potential for strong
winds over The Cape and Islands where some wind headlines will be
needed. Coastal flooding doesn`t look to be a huge concern at this
time, but some pockets of minor coastal flooding may be possible
along the east coast on Sunday. Look for more updates in tomorrow
morning`s forecast package.

Sunday night and Monday

Remaining snow should taper off late Sunday night into Monday

Looks interesting....  Maybe I should preposition the 🚜 a little better than I did last March.

Edited January 5 by jbrumberg

[PA road DAWG]

22 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’m working in Hometown PA and it’s a mix of SEPA workers and NEPA mostly. 1 from NEPA at a meeting today said “its when they call for a lot we sweep it off, when they call for a little…it tends to be a lot”

Trending in that direction for him.

He ain’t wrong lol except for March 2017

[MaineJay]

13 minutes ago, Burr said:

I remember that one, too!!  That is my first snowstorm memory… had just turned 6, and we walked about a mile to play with my best friend at his house.  Then walked back.

 

I was in utero, lovely Lynn, MA. 

[TLChip]

7 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

CIPS Analogs...

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php?rundt=2024010412

Some company in that group...

[Horsepants]

10 minutes ago, Burr said:

I remember that one, too!!  That is my first snowstorm memory… had just turned 6, and we walked about a mile to play with my best friend at his house.  Then walked back.

 

Yeah I think we got 18". Not the most but tons of wind. 83 was crazy snow rates for me. I believe there was a one our rate of 5" (maybe 7 but that sounds a bit crazy) in there with thunder and lightning. 96 was awesome to watch the forecast change as it came north. Never forget the Weather channel saying Harrisburg this is your storm too. Remember looking at the radar and thinking that thing ain't stopping. 2016 was awesome too. Sorry northern virga nightmare folks. We all have our own favorites depending on locale

[Horsepants]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

I was in utero, lovely Lynn, MA. 

You guys really got wacked up there. Not that I knew that at the time

[TLChip]

3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

He ain’t wrong lol except for March 2017

I experienced 2018 up there... what an unexpected blast.

[Poco]

22 minutes ago, bwala said:

I’m right down the road from you.  Sometimes those  skook mountains can be tricky!

down the road….. hmm, which way down the road 

Edited January 5 by Poco

[MDBlueridge]

46 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

Awww...come on now....why are you bringing me into this? 😉

Jeremiah David? Is that you? 🥲

You were mean to me in AccuWeather days which I deserved, then I made you laugh and you sent me a Christmas gift of your uncle in laws baked bean casserole. 

Ive missed you. 

Edited January 5 by MDBlueridge

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, Horsepants said:

You guys really got wacked up there. Not that I knew that at the time

Parents tell stores of drifts over one story houses. 

[ionizer]

[JDClapper]

1 minute ago, Horsepants said:

Yeah I think we got 18". Not the most but tons of wind. 83 was crazy snow rates for me. I believe there was a one our rate of 5" (maybe 7 but that sounds a bit crazy) in there with thunder and lightning. 96 was awesome to watch the forecast change as it came north. Never forget the Weather channel saying Harrisburg this is your storm too. Remember looking at the radar and thinking that thing ain't stopping. 2016 was awesome too. Sorry northern virga nightmare folks. We all have our own favorites depending on locale

Ha, I'll chime in for the interior PA ... best storms in my life that I can remember: .. dang, March seems to be legit around here.

12/16/20

3/14/17

3/2/94

3/13/93

[bwala]

Just now, Poco said:

down the road….. hmm, which way down the road 

Pottsville … but work right off exit 116 along 81…

 

1 minute ago, Poco said:

down the road….. hmm, which way down the road 

 

[mikeysed]

Steve D posted his "final" map. Not sure how you do a final map Thursday at 730pm. But here it is

Edited January 5 by mikeysed

[clm]

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

I’ll be darned if they didn’t up totals.. I would have expected the opposite! 
 

Edit: Said Snobal.. White flag in hand.. 😂 Page Topper! Boom! 💥 

Not mentioning Snobal during a winter storm potential is like not having a Christmas tree at Christmas.

[Poco]

Just now, MDBlueridge said:

Jeremiah David? Is that you? 🥲

You were mean to me in AccuWeather days which I deserved, then I made you laugh and you sent me a Christmas gift of you uncle in laws baked bean casserole. 

Ive missed you. 

God I’m dumb 

I saw the username and was like o neat someone new who likes organic forecasting 

 

[clm]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

See that’s educational.. I might share that to our Twitter feed. 

Don't forget to add it to the punch cards too.

[Poco]

2 minutes ago, bwala said:

Pottsville … but work right off exit 116 along 81…

 

 

Ok Yes still the skook, I’m the other way 

[LongIslanGurlllll]

Just now, clm said:

Don't forget to add it to the punch cards too.

Didn’t realize their was a twitter feed 🧐

[Horsepants]

3 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Parents tell stores of drifts over one story houses. 

We all would have loved that. Especially with the power out and being stranded. Ok maybe our child selves

[bwala]

Just now, Poco said:

Ok Yes still the skook, I’m the other way 

Got to love all that fog traveling 81.