January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[LongIslanGurlllll]

I’m not agreeing with this

Im trying to woo it down to the island 

[Penn State]

3 minutes ago, TLChip said:

You have the smarties… yall know who you are the Mets & the others that bring great info to the forum.

@MaineJay  @Poco  @Undertakerson2.0 @Penn State  others I’m missing while I’m next to my stove.

 

And the rest of us, snow lovers, model riders(max snow), memers. We make a good bunch. 

That’s some pretty special company right there.. but that’s like saying Montana, Brady, Manning, and Zach Wilson (I’m Wilson.. 😂)

[Penn State]

Just now, LongIslanGurlllll said:

I’m not agreeing with this

Im trying to woo it down to the island 

No.. No.. I’ll take my 10-16”. 

[LongIslanGurlllll]

1 minute ago, Penn State said:

No.. No.. I’ll take my 10-16”. 

🤫

lucky PA buggers 

[JDClapper]

Who is this Mike Masco fellow, and.... why?  😵‍💫

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, JDClapper said:

Who is this Mike Masco fellow, and.... why?  😵‍💫

IKR?? 

[JDClapper]

In fairness, that pink is 6-10" .. the 10-16" is for the dark pink bullseye.  Still... while I'd love it, skeptical haha

[JDClapper]

For additional fairness:

Zone 2 (White 4-6")- This is a general range that factors in moderate snow and a mixing of sleet/rain esp over coastal CT/RI/MA. The bust area for this zone is mostly over interior New England and along I-84 in CT where we can go higher-end totals vs lower end. The area for busting on the low range is over eastern PA should mixing become an issue OR heavy snow rates are never reached. This would mean the snow stays wet very long and limits the accumulation

 

Zone 3 (Pink 6-10") assumes a pure snow event. The 6" will be reached easily but could hit 10" if your area is under enhanced bandings (which are mostly reserved for New England

 

Zone 4 (Purple 10-16") is purely higher elevations over 1500'. This is why my initial call had 6-16" of snow to factor in the elevation and where the heaviest snowfall would occur. I am still not convinced on snow ratios "Fluff" factor and how that could impact this area

Edited January 5 by JDClapper

[TLChip]

10 minutes ago, Penn State said:

That’s some pretty special company right there.. but that’s like saying Montana, Brady, Manning, and Zach Wilson (I’m Wilson.. 😂)

You sold yourself short, you already forgot you opened this threat… I don’t have to quote your opener 👍

[LongIslanGurlllll]

4 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Who is this Mike Masco fellow, and.... why?  😵‍💫

Browsing twitter and his map popped up lol 

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active pattern emerges for the long range portion of the forecast.
With the weekend system, 12Z models and ensemble solutions remain in
relatively good agreement bringing low pressure up the Mid Atlantic
coastline on Saturday. This system will organize and intensify
Saturday night into Sunday as it tracks poleward, then east,
northeast on Sunday. As the system never reaches the latitude of
southern portions of the forecast area before heading out to
sea, any drying, northwesterly, downslope winds will be delayed.
Therefore, a few snow showers may last into Sunday evening. The
surface low tucked in close to the coast on the Canadian model
appears to be the outlier solutions at this time. It will be
sufficiently cold at the surface and aloft as we are forecasting
an all snow event for our region. Northern areas may be too far
north to receive much in the way of snowfall with the highest
amounts focused on southeast New Hampshire and southwest,
coastal Maine.

Models do allow for the upper level low to cutoff and capturing
the surface low. This will allow the snow to continue into
Sunday afternoon and possibly the early evening hours as it
diminishes in intensity. In terms of climatology, this system
will represent the second latest event of at least one inch of
snow or more in Portland on record.

These look extremely bullish to me.

The high end is just a straight crack map. 

I'll have the snowblower ready in any event. Ay least the ground is frozen this time.

[mikeysed]

Euro rolling

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, mikeysed said:

Euro rolling

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Euro is my hero.. and watching 21z SREF come in, the mean is looking better in the interior than 15z so far through 0z Sunday at least

[JDClapper]

DAng, that's 10:1 ratios, I assume is Kutchera!  holy smokes Euro!

[MDBlueridge]

Just now, JDClapper said:

DAng, that's 10:1 ratios, I assume is Kutchera!  holy smokes Euro!

3k will go gangbusters tonite 

[JDClapper]

Mike Masco FTW yall

[mikeysed]

Thanks UT.

 

Sorry for IMBY rant but every model has Morris County 6 to 12 inches and NWS has most of it in 1 to 3... crazy. Yet has a WSW for it.

[Horsepants]

Long time lurker since the AccuWeather days. Huge thanks to all the posters on here who provide me with endless information and entertainment. I'm a weather freak from way back back. My fascination began with the blizzard of 78 (still the biggest drifts and snow cave building storm I've ever seen). Loved taking the sled with my dad to get fuel oil from the neighbors when we were snowed in and ran out. Saw the great megalopolis  storm of 1983 mentioned in here. I've got some great stories from that one... Hardest I've ever seen it snow. Love the chaos, unpredictability, wonder and beauty of a storm. Anyway I leave the technical physics of it all to smart nerds and sit back and enjoy. Keep up the good work

Edited January 5 by Horsepants

[TheComet]

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Thanks UT.

 

Sorry for IMBY rant but every model has Morris County 6 to 12 inches and NWS has most of it in 1 to 3... crazy. Yet has a WSW for it.

NWS plays it convservative.

[Jon Snow]

38 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Sometimes I wonder what regular folks reading this forum are thinking.. You know, like guests. Are they like.. wow.. these people are smart. Or is it.. these people are complete whackadoodles? 😂

Here in Virginia, DT is still one of the best for our area so I have followed him for years.  It can be quite painful sometimes, but I can still glean the useful meteorology from him.  After years of following him, this forum is cool and calm.

[1816]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Off topic but extended range GFS drops te freakin cold hammer in the third week. Temps not higher than TEENS? 

I hate winter. 

If there's anything we can take to the bank it's this. Maybe we get some snow, maybe not. But one thing is guaranteed before all is said and done. We will be put into an icebox at some point. Its been way too long.  Odds are a thing.

 

Stealing from clapper? maybe

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, Horsepants said:

Long time lurker since the AccuWeather days. Huge thanks to all the posters on here who provide me with endless information and entertainment. I'm a weather freak from way back back. My fascination began with the blizzard of 78 (still the biggest drifts and snow cave building storm I've ever seen). Loved taking the sled with my dad to get fuel oil from the neighbors when we were snowed in and ran out. Saw the great magalipilis storm of 1983 mentioned in here. I've got some great stories from that one... Hardest I've ever seen it snow. Love the chaos, unpredictability, wonder and beauty of a storm. Anyway I leave the technical physics of it all to smart nerds and sit back and enjoy. Keep up the good work

Speaking of SLEDS (another segue) I have a chance to own this snowmobile which is the original one my dad bought us in 1970. Some guy dug it out of a pile and restored it to this. It was a Piece O Crap even when new. But man I'd fly down memory lane if I can get it somehow (no that is not me - restoration dude has a sense of humor though)

[Jon Snow]

10 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

That snow line won't be IMBY, but it will be so close I will be able to see it

[LongIslanGurlllll]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

That snow line won't be IMBY, but it will be so close I will be able to see it

It’s going a little more south, mark my words! 🙂