January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Poco]

12z eps mean mslp and members 

 

18z gefs at hr174 looks nothing like it 

so yea, I get the feeling if that southern wave dampens too much and allows itself to be pushed you will see runs like what 18z gefs perturbed.  

Wouldn’t throw anything out, just parse out the info available and keep trying to draw the conclusion 

Edited January 1 by Poco

[Wtkidz]

Sterlings words based on 12z from this afternoon,

 

Quote

Flow aloft will turn zonal, and high pressure will build in from the
west at the surface on Friday. Mostly sunny skies and light winds
are expected, along with slightly below normal temperatures. Highs
will be in the upper 30s to low 40s for most, with upper 20s to low
30s in the mountains.

As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system
approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system
will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper
low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and
potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward
toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there
could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface,
with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would
expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with
respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster
somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the
coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial
QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable
track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as
snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most
solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the
northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass
in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create
a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll
continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has
the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season
(and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains.

 

 

[Pghsnow]

18z EPS

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: Western ridge is forecast to gradually transition to a
broad trof across much of the CONUS. The pattern will also be
evolving to a much more active one...with several chances for
precip within the next 10 days. Perhaps a much anticipated
return of...start of?...winter.

Impacts: Not anticipating significant weather impacts until late
in the period. If storm track can remain near the
coast...accumulating snow and associated hazards are possible.

Forecast Details: The period kicks off with a trof axis passing
out to sea...and laying down a baroclinic zone offshore. S/WV
trof undercutting the western ridge is forecast to emerge off
the Southeast coast and try to phase with the northern stream.
At this time guidance is heavily favoring a late phase and out
to sea solution. Still have some PoP in there to cover any
potential western trends but mostly any precip that occurs in
the inverted trof if it remains out to sea.

Things get interesting beyond that near miss. What it will
provide is a fresh shot of cold air ahead of the next S/WV of
note. A more classic -PNA pattern emerges with a developing
western trof spiting out waves towards the northeast. Right now
ensembles have a very strong signal for two QPF events centered
roughly around the 7th and the 10th. The first event has a
confluent flow modeled north of New England...supporting surface
high pressure nearby. Ensembles even have a cold air damming
signature despite their typically washed out nature...especially
at that long a range. There is still uncertainty however...as
model camps have developed. GEFS being father east and more
prone to out to sea misses than the ECMWF EPS...which is more
solidly a near southern New England track. Beyond the forecast
period despite strong QPF signal...there remains uncertainty in
ptype. The -PNA will leave room for storms to cut inland if the
timing of Quebec high pressure is not right. However given how
active it looks coming up...it would appear the delayed but not
denied winter weather becoming more likely over the next week to
10 days.

 

[Pghsnow]

My local weather had no mention of snow.for Saturday or Sunday when every major model has us with snow. Maybe they are riding the ICON...

Edited January 1 by Pghsnow

[StretchCT]

Trend @144, right about at transfer

500mb isn't as locked in as I had thought. Confluence should keep it from cutting, right? 

Edited January 1 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

trend @162 Great place for a High.

[Penn State]

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

trend @162 Great place for a High.

The final GFS run of 2023 didn’t disappoint! 

[StretchCT]

Kind of a longer duration event, surprisingly.  The snow shows up in NJ at 144, still snowing in NENJ at 174.  This pans out, NYC sets the record for less than an inch of snow with a bang. 

[Pghsnow]

[PA road DAWG]

I hate being in the bullseye this far out 

[Pghsnow]

[Rickrd]

26 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I hate being in the bullseye this far out 

Totally agree! 
hello all! Happy New Year!

[Rickrd]

Long ways to go. But man,  has it been boring. 
January and February should be good times.

[Pghsnow]

[Penn State]

Happy New Year everyone!!! 🎉🥳

[Rickrd]

Blizzard for all!!!

[Wtkidz]

Happy New Year one and All.  May your days be filled with dreams of Snow at least til April. 

[StretchCT]

17 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Totally agree! 
hello all! Happy New Year!

[Rickrd]

11 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

10,14,15,16

lock it in

[Rickrd]

To 1/17/24. 😊

[TLChip]

Happy New Year all! Hopefully the snowy trends continue!

[TheRex]

Happy New year!  We had light snow falling at midnight which I'm hoping is a good sign for what is a about to come. 

[MaineJay]

11 hours ago, MaineJay said:

EFI

My backyard

Comparing. SW jog with this suite.

My backyard, more zeros than previous.

[MaineJay]

6 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Trend @144, right about at transfer

500mb isn't as locked in as I had thought. Confluence should keep it from cutting, right? 

If that confluence scoots east it can, only a few GEFS members that do, but there is a "pocket" between the northern shortwaves that leave the door slightly ajar.

A lot of time to go, questionable if the deterministic models can resolve the stream interaction with much skill for another 48 hours.