January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

We seriously need to talk

Paging Doctor Tom, Doctor Tom -  paging Doctor Tom

[Rickrd]

Lets see what Regie does

[TLChip]

20 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I'm not, it's clearly chasing convection to me when it does that

Even with H7 looking so flat, not a pro at these but I just get that feeling from past storms. Slides away and goes boom later. 

Edit: always appreciate some constructive critism 🤣

Saturday

Sunday evening 

Edited January 4 by TLChip

[Penn State]

RGEM was better.. for me at least. 

Edited January 4 by Penn State

[Undertakerson2.0]

Baby Gem is coming in potent and tucked in Delmarva. It does not jump so far, to chase convection, stays warm as a result 

I, unfortunately, get buried in this scenario. 

[Penn State]

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Even with H7 looking so flat, not a pro at these but I just get that feeling from past storms. Slides away and goes boom later. 
 

Saturday

Sunday evening 

I'd agree but it then reflects more strongly at the coast. Remember, we have a 50/50 downstream - it can't shoot directly east as a result

[Rickrd]

3 minutes ago, Penn State said:

RGEM was better.. for me at least. 

Canadian has been pretty consistent, no? 
I think Rayno said it handles these type of systems better. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Rickrd said:

Canadian has been pretty consistent, no? 
I think Rayno said it handles these type of systems better. 

Baby Gem has done well over the past couple years

[Penn State]

Just now, Rickrd said:

Canadian has been pretty consistent, no? 
I think Rayno said it handles these type of systems better. 

I think so.. no major swings, its precip field has grown, added some mixing back my way in CTP, but on track.. it’s been the same for days. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

This NAM run is prime example of why Jesse (WeatherMatrix) says we need to scrap it and just expand the HRRR

[clm]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

This NAM run is prime example of why Jesse (WeatherMatrix) says we need to scrap it and just expand the HRRR

Yeah that run was wacko.  In a short period of time I went from under 5 inches to double digits.  Not saying that could never happen, I just don't see it happening with this storm.

If I were not on the rain/snow line, then it would hold more weight.

[Rickrd]

4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Baby Gem has done well over the past couple years

Ya, until Saturday afternoon....😬

[TLChip]

7 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Canadian has been pretty consistent, no? 
I think Rayno said it handles these type of systems better. 

Seems to be pretty steady. No huge swings either way.

Edited January 4 by TLChip

[clm]

1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Ya, until Saturday afternoon....😬

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, clm said:

 

He just saw the latest NAM?

[clm]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

He just saw the latest NAM?

He did and he's in the Riverhead section and not happy about it.

[Rickrd]

WWA Summary by Location for 40.76N 75.32W with PAZ062/PAC095/PAZ062 emphasis Winter Storm Watch (weather.gov)

NWS going with 4-8 here in Lehigh Valley.

Edited January 4 by Rickrd

[Undertakerson2.0]

[TLChip]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Just waiting for a WWA 😅

[Phillyfan]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Still haven't had a winter storm watch in, I can't remember when.

[clm]

[Wtkidz]

Warning this movie contains images that unsuitable for many snow lovers.

 

 

[SquallBall]

10 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

WWA Summary by Location for 40.76N 75.32W with PAZ062/PAC095/PAZ062 emphasis Winter Storm Watch (weather.gov)

NWS going with 4-8 here in Lehigh Valley.

surprised Lehigh is not on here.... are they lumping them in with berks? 

[clm]

So they are not too careful here.  They mention in "WHERE" - southeast NY, which also includes Long Island.  If you don't pay attention to the counties listed, then you start creating unnecessary panic by listing 5 to 8 inches possible.  Northern Westchester is the southeast NY they are speaking of.  

 

000
WWUS41 KOKX 042019
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
319 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-050430-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.240106T2300Z-240107T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
319 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$