January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Rickrd]

SREF for Bethlehem is at 4.3 so I’m looking for 6. 

[clm]

14 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

There must be some posts that got hidden, so staff page toppers are different from everyone else (we still see the hidden posts). Just so everyone understands why this doesn't look like a page topper to them.

You took down the post of you in speedos? 🤪

[Undertakerson2.0]

What's this? 4-7"??

Seems as if I heard that somewhere before...

[clm]

2 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

SREF for Bethlehem is at 4.3 so I’m looking for 6. 

Its calling for 2.2 total for me.  If you're talking about all (rain/snow/sleet) then maybe.  But if snow only, no, < 1 inch of actual snow if that.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Et Tu? Bouncer? 

[TheRex]

18 minutes ago, LUCC said:

How much can I expect in Philly? 

I miss the Philly guy.  He was always so excited before the storm and so let down after the storm.  10% of posts after a storm that may be close to Philly was him asking how much for Philly.  I hope he moved to the snowbelt somewhere.

[mikeysed]

NAM coming very soon. Does anyone have the JMA that starts at 3pm ET I believe.

[Rickrd]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 041910
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
210 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the midwest early this afternoon will build
across our region through tonight. The high will pass offshore
Friday keeping a cold and dry airmass in place. A coastal system
passing just south of the area will bring widespread
precipitation to the region Saturday through Saturday night. The
coastal system will move to the east of our region Sunday
morning, followed by high pressure and seasonable conditions
later Sunday into Monday. A much stronger system system will
bring rain and strong winds to the region Tuesday through
Wednesday as low pressure passes across the southern Great Lakes
and toward New England.

 

Synoptic Overview: A closed mid-level low across the southern
Plains will open into a shortwave trough and deamplify as it
eject northeastward. It is forecast to cross our region Saturday
night. By Sunday morning, a sub-tropical jet will be centered
across the Southeast, placing the northern-most areas of the
forecast area and southern New England in the left exit region
of the jet as it shifts eastward and eventually offshore. At the
surface, A broad surface high will shift offshore and weaken on
Friday. Its initially cold and dry airmass will begin to modify
as thicknesses and heights rise and low level flow turns
southwest ahead of the approaching trough. By Saturday morning,
less than impressive cyclogenesis will be ongoing with the
surface low lifting quickly northeastward from the Carolinas.
The latest trend in the 00Z guidance is for this low to take a
more northerly track, keeping it closer to our coast as it lifts
north Saturday night. Furthermore, the greatest diffluence
aloft will likely continue to support a northerly trend with the
surface low (unless a significant shift in the placement of the
jet streak forecast occurs), which would result in a warmer
solution. An arctic airmass associated with a high will be
located well to our north across southeast Canada, and our area
will not be able to tap into its airmass. The surface low will
push eastward south of New England on Sunday.

the resulting snowfall forecast is for little to no snowfall
accumulation near the immediate I-95 corridor and southeast
across the coastal plain, although precipitation may initially
begin as wet snow that is not able to accumulate. Between the
I-95 and I-78 corridors, we have roughly 1-4" of snow in the
initial forecast. North of I-78, we have included amounts of
4-6". A Winter Storm Watch was considered for Carbon, Monroe,
and Sussex (NJ) Counties, however given the marginal nature of
reaching warning criteria and lower confidence of this occurring
(less than 50%), we will allow the day shift to make another
assessment as to whether any watches will be needed. Please note
that a further northwest trend in the surface low in the
guidance will result in a reduced snowfall forecast, so continue
to monitor for updates.

[Rickrd]

Just now, Rickrd said:

000
FXUS61 KPHI 041910
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
210 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the midwest early this afternoon will build
across our region through tonight. The high will pass offshore
Friday keeping a cold and dry airmass in place. A coastal system
passing just south of the area will bring widespread
precipitation to the region Saturday through Saturday night. The
coastal system will move to the east of our region Sunday
morning, followed by high pressure and seasonable conditions
later Sunday into Monday. A much stronger system system will
bring rain and strong winds to the region Tuesday through
Wednesday as low pressure passes across the southern Great Lakes
and toward New England.

 

Synoptic Overview: A closed mid-level low across the southern
Plains will open into a shortwave trough and deamplify as it
eject northeastward. It is forecast to cross our region Saturday
night. By Sunday morning, a sub-tropical jet will be centered
across the Southeast, placing the northern-most areas of the
forecast area and southern New England in the left exit region
of the jet as it shifts eastward and eventually offshore. At the
surface, A broad surface high will shift offshore and weaken on
Friday. Its initially cold and dry airmass will begin to modify
as thicknesses and heights rise and low level flow turns
southwest ahead of the approaching trough. By Saturday morning,
less than impressive cyclogenesis will be ongoing with the
surface low lifting quickly northeastward from the Carolinas.
The latest trend in the 00Z guidance is for this low to take a
more northerly track, keeping it closer to our coast as it lifts
north Saturday night. Furthermore, the greatest diffluence
aloft will likely continue to support a northerly trend with the
surface low (unless a significant shift in the placement of the
jet streak forecast occurs), which would result in a warmer
solution. An arctic airmass associated with a high will be
located well to our north across southeast Canada, and our area
will not be able to tap into its airmass. The surface low will
push eastward south of New England on Sunday.

the resulting snowfall forecast is for little to no snowfall
accumulation near the immediate I-95 corridor and southeast
across the coastal plain, although precipitation may initially
begin as wet snow that is not able to accumulate. Between the
I-95 and I-78 corridors, we have roughly 1-4" of snow in the
initial forecast. North of I-78, we have included amounts of
4-6". A Winter Storm Watch was considered for Carbon, Monroe,
and Sussex (NJ) Counties, however given the marginal nature of
reaching warning criteria and lower confidence of this occurring
(less than 50%), we will allow the day shift to make another
assessment as to whether any watches will be needed. Please note
that a further northwest trend in the surface low in the
guidance will result in a reduced snowfall forecast, so continue
to monitor for updates.

Not sure why at 2 pm today they are using 0Z Guidance????

[Chris2333]

Just now, TheRex said:

I miss the Philly guy.  He was always so excited before the storm and so let down after the storm.  10% of posts after a storm that may be close to Philly was him asking how much for Philly.  I hope he moved to the snowbelt somewhere.

Well I’m 20 minutes outside of Philly to the east I can take up the reins and say it, the answer is…

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Not sure why at 2 pm today they are using 0Z Guidance????

I am shocked tht CTP went up with Watches already,. Then I remembered it's PA Farm Show Week and that's the Opening Saturday the largest by shear numbers. So that may be involved. 

I've seen the AFDs afternoon, still have 00z reference. Sometimes they post an update a few hours after the main product and give the important updates within - then say "Previous Discussion follows" - or something like that. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Thread that needle baby. The 50/50 low holds the confluence in just long enough, I'm thinking. 

[WeatherFlash]

22 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Im definitely not use to my area getting the first winter storm watch going of the region. A rarity for sure.  

[TheComet]

1 hour ago, Rickrd said:

Here’s some hr 84 select areas 

Yikes, that 15.5" is right over my house in NEPA off of exit 3 I380 in Monroe county

[Wtkidz]

22 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Et Tu? Bouncer? 

Yup we might have 5 flakes the rain. 

[LongIslanGurlllll]

44 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Careful, I still burn laps on the daily and have a new suit. I said I no longer pose it in, but I might make an exception

Oh my 

[bigben89]

39 minutes ago, LUCC said:

How much can I expect in Philly? 

 

[Squepp]

Frederick county md just put out a watch for 5+ inches....

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

12 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I am shocked tht CTP went up with Watches already,. Then I remembered it's PA Farm Show Week and that's the Opening Saturday the largest by shear numbers. So that may be involved. 

I've seen the AFDs afternoon, still have 00z reference. Sometimes they post an update a few hours after the main product and give the important updates within - then say "Previous Discussion follows" - or something like that. 

Yes, and many times it is the dude doing the write ups, noting that different ones do different parts of the AFD. I noted the guy that did the excellent early evening long term write up last night. His name was not the one in the one Rick just posted. Let’s see if he does the one later.

[LUCC]

18 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I am shocked tht CTP went up with Watches already,. Then I remembered it's PA Farm Show Week and that's the Opening Saturday the largest by shear numbers. So that may be involved. 

I've seen the AFDs afternoon, still have 00z reference. Sometimes they post an update a few hours after the main product and give the important updates within - then say "Previous Discussion follows" - or something like that. 

He was like a 13 or 14 year old kid who just got super excited about snow, I think he was planning on going to met school. I forget his username. 

[Snowadelphia]

Just now, LUCC said:

He was like a 13 or 14 year old kid who just got super excited about snow, I think he was planning on going to met school. I forget his username. 

Wasn’t it StormTracker? Something of that nature? Good grief. Gave Philly a bad name.

[Inferno]

Just now, Snowadelphia said:

Wasn’t it StormTracker? Something of that nature? Good grief. Gave Philly a bad name.

For sure, I was just sitting here trying to remember and I came up with "stormchaser" or something. StormTracker sounds more familiar 

[Wtkidz]

You can tell you are snow starved when this amount makes you smile.  Only 47% chance of a tenth of an inch of snow.

Edited January 4 by Wtkidz

[LUCC]

Had some flurries flying around 2p in Robbinsville, NJ when picking up kid #2 from school.  #truestory

Edited January 4 by LUCC