January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

6 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Those that would stay snow though.. right on the fringe in that situation.. Jackpot. 

Might also be power outage central for them, verbatim.

 

[JDClapper]

Hmm.. the level of near agreement at this range is very sus... 😮 

[Pghsnow]

[StretchCT]

12z Experimental machine learning

Pangu takes it further inland.

Graphcast is off the coast a little more, still pretty tucked in 

Fourcast sliding it out and weaker

Fuxi not the strongest either, between Fourcast and Graphcast

AIFS is pretty tucked in too.

Despite the AIFS placement, the 850 temps are still favorable N+W of Philly, NYC, etc. That green line is 0.

 

[StretchCT]

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Despite the AIFS placement, the 850 temps are still favorable N+W of Philly, NYC, etc. That green line is 0.

 

Not so much for the 1000mb temps though. Light blue is 0c

[Poco]

A lil something something to work with 

12z eps Mean MSLP & 850mb temps 

 

[Poco]

This was 0z placement still waiting to see what 12z did comparatively 

 

 

it appears from above spread will remain closely tucked with marginal boundary temps along I95 to I78ish?

Edited December 31, 2023 by Poco

[Penn State]

58 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Hmm.. the level of near agreement at this range is very sus... 😮 

The Clapper Tracker is back! 

[Poco]

not really the 500mb 8 run delta you would want to see from this type of setup 

[MaineJay]

EFI

My backyard

[JDClapper]

Adding to MJ.. interior PA EPS accumulating snow signal is VERY strong. Also looks decent for the followup a couple days later.

23" max axis, woah.

 

[Penn State]

CTP at least taking a look.. 

[Penn State]

[MDBlueridge]

Wife: why are you looking at your phone so much today?

Me: weather

Wife: you hate dealing with the snow anymore

Me: I hate dealing with your mother as well but it's something I can't avoid

Wife: touche dick 

Me: I'll make sure your moms driveway gets cleared 

Wife: I love you and you're amazing and handsome (I may have made this part up) 

[Penn State]

[Cdfarabaugh]

My untrained weather weenie question here is what will keep this thing from driving further north before transferring to the coast?  Seen this scenario too many times evolve into a low driving up to Erie giving us a slopfest to rain.  

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

My untrained weather weenie question here is what will keep this thing from driving further north before transferring to the coast?  Seen this scenario too many times evolve into a low driving up to Erie giving us a slopfest to rain.  

I think.. it’s the low from the 4th. It creates a 50/50 low.. which essentially locks the cold in for the Northeast. A lot hinges on that first system and how it evolves. 

[JDClapper]

I feel you on that CD, just looks way too good for us PA folks, 7 days away, which in reality is kind of a bummer. But, its not relentless +15 temps and zero hope of winter.. so, theres that I guess 🤷‍♂️

 

[JDClapper]

JMA and NAVGEM for fun

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

9 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

I feel you on that CD, just looks way too good for us PA folks, 7 days away, which in reality is kind of a bummer. But, its not relentless +15 temps and zero hope of winter.. so, theres that I guess 🤷‍♂️

 

Your concern should be about suppression than it running inland. This storm is not cutting. The 50/50 is legit and there is good cold air press. Suppression/ de-amplification is the risk here and it scooting due East. At least for anyone Near the NY/PA border and on north or east from there.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

JMA and NAVGEM for fun

 

Exactly where you'd expect them at the moment given the gfs and Euro placement.

[Cdfarabaugh]

Good thing we're not heavily moderated then with me giving my gut "usually the way it works out" feeling lol

26 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

I feel you on that CD, just looks way too good for us PA folks, 7 days away, which in reality is kind of a bummer. But, its not relentless +15 temps and zero hope of winter.. so, theres that I guess 🤷‍♂️

 

To give my evidence for this theory I have never, EVER rebuilt one carbuerator successfully without some stupid issue afterwards.  This weekend I tried one last time on a simple motorcraft 2100.  Took extra care, made sure I read instructions, kept things clean, watched videos and really zen'ed out to keep concentration.  Installed today and ran 1 minute before pouring gas out the bowl vent %$#@.......it's just the way it goes being cursed doing that like central PA is with all.snow events 😁🤣

[Wtkidz]

Well I am forever in the rain / snow down here in central Virginia.  Sometime we thread a needle and get good one others it is all rain.  Just say I am used to it 

[MaineJay]

GEFS

[Poco]

Looking at the setup from afar, the energy that’s spawning the srfc low has come in extremely strong on modeling today 

18z latest look 

 

at that frame it’s neutral and closed over eastern TX,  there is strong confluence at the same hour over the northeast US. 
 

the quick pulse in the PNA from  negative to + to negative again is just enough to squeeze that southern wave through and then push it hard into the confluence which creates a pretty robust area of surface high pressure above the Great Lakes causing the wave to open and transfer a surface low over the top of Delmarva 

As synoptic setups go it s definitely not a slam dunk nor does it scream monster. 

however there is still enough to work with especially for the areas that can stay all snow. 

Def going to temper expectations with this, it’s a good chance someone sees some good snow somewhere near my immediate area but how that southern energy modulates into the convergence will determine what kind of transfer, how much cold and how much pwat can be rung outta this