January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[ionizer]

Minus this last minute change by GFS,

Looks like Monmouth county NJ gets f'd over again.  Cold wet rain for us!

Edited January 4 by ionizer

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Almost forgot how wild the model ride is. I know all the models had upgrades, but still seems like the old days where 3 days out they get lost and chaos rules, then 2 days out they go- eh, sorry about yesterday, was suffering from random thought syndrome. Now time to get back to business.

Yep - the old Mid-range model crisis mode. 

[clm]

1 minute ago, ionizer said:

Minus this last minute change by GFS,

Looks like Monmouth county NJ gets f'd over again.  Cold wet rain for us!

Very common for you and LI to be on that snow/rain line.  Frustrating for sure.

[Undertakerson2.0]

[NotInKansasAnymore]

Been a long time lurker since the Accu days, dating back to pre-Sandy. I don’t contribute a lot but love learning from everyone. I love to see so many familiar faces all back together again!! 

[clm]

Just now, NotInKansasAnymore said:

Been a long time lurker since the Accu days, dating back to pre-Sandy. I don’t contribute a lot but love learning from everyone. I love to see so many familiar faces all back together again!! 

Welcome.  

[Burr]

2 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Younger posters should do a search for that 2/10/83 storm. Legendary n’ easter. Some of longest, sustained heavy snowfall rates in memory. 81, 83, 93, 96, 2003, 2016, 2021 are the gold standards for moi for my location. The 2016 one was the Poc, RickRd, and me all nighter- you joined back in early that Saturday, back near the end of old Accu. Yes, the one that created deep scars for PARD 😀

This storm is the basis of one of my favorite snowstorm (ice-fort!!!) memories… In case nobody has posted a recap:

 

[Penn State]

It’s amazing to me that we’re almost in range of the long-range HRRR. For fun.. at this point. 

[mikeysed]

Anyone have the Ukie snow map?

[clm]

1 minute ago, mikeysed said:

Anyone have the Ukie snow map?

[Rickrd]

24 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

So if I put on my Magnifying glasses, the Ensemble Means of the GFS and Euro ar leading the way. Interesting. Thanks, I was wondering about it this morning.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Rickrd said:

So if I put on my Magnifying glasses, the Ensemble Means of the GFS and Euro ar leading the way. Interesting. Thanks, I was wondering about it this morning.

I'm also looking at that huge dip going on RN - with it going low ATM, whose to say its done bottoming. IOW - the models may still adjust and in a big way. ??

[TLChip]

Not exactly sure of my feelings this morning…. I feel the rug being pulled out. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

To me, the GEFS say "our Op run is still hung over on some cheap whiskey"  - ignore. 

Then again, the individual member spread increased noticeably 

 

[PA road DAWG]

1 minute ago, TLChip said:

Not exactly sure of my feelings this morning…. I feel the rug being pulled out. 

Ehhh yea me too..sort of.   Seems like it’s starting to zero in on sne 

[Miller A]

2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Remember MJ mentioning to not trust the analogues? I peeped them the other day (2 days ago) and it had a murderer's row of NESIS blockbusters. Including Snowmagedon (pt1 2/6/2010), Bliz 96, NA Bliz Feb 1983, - just to name a few...

Wait, what? Is this legit?

[TLChip]

6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Ehhh yea me too..sort of.   Seems like it’s starting to zero in on sne

It be nice to see the trailing energy get pulled in quickly, it’s trying to play catchup as the costal is leaving. Takes too long to catch before it leaves PA. 

12z RDPS is still nice at 12z NAM is too late for big goods. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, Miller A said:

Wait, what? Is this legit?

It WAS legit, it didn't last - the next cycle removed all of them except 1983, I stopped looking afterwards/ There was no way this was EVER going to be any of those history makers (I forgot to add that Jonas was also on that list) They archive their ouput, so if I revisit I'll try to remember to pull it up as a screen shot. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

It WAS legit, it didn't last - the next cycle removed all of them except 1983, I stopped looking afterwards/ There was no way this was EVER going to be any of those history makers (I forgot to add that Jonas was also on that list) They archive their ouput, so if I revisit I'll try to remember to pull it up as a screen shot. 

 

Didn't take me long... only it was 3 days ago, not two

Edited January 4 by Undertakerson2.0

[clm]

3 minutes ago, TLChip said:

It be nice to see the trailing energy get pulled in quickly, it’s trying to play catchup as the costal is leaving. Takes too long to catch before it leaves PA. 

12z RDPS is still nice at 12z NAM is too late for big goods. 

[TheComet]

1 hour ago, Wtkidz said:

Movie time. Again.. 12Z GFS . 
 

 

Is it just me or did it do a mini loop off the coast of central jersey south of LI before heading out?

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, TheComet said:

Is it just me or did it do a mini loop off the coast of central jersey south of LI before heading out?

we've mentioned that in real time as the model came out. It actually pulled its act together and started bombing out just off Delmarva - gathered in the trailer ULL and exploded

[WeatherFlash]

Just now, TheComet said:

Is it just me or did it do a mini loop off the coast of central jersey south of LI before heading out?

Yeah it got a late capture from the trailing vort. Something to watch i guess

[clm]

3 minutes ago, TheComet said:

Is it just me or did it do a mini loop off the coast of central jersey south of LI before heading out?

Its not you.  It drifted for a split second.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Upcoming Euro run -48 hours away, should, cough- cough, should start painting the picture. Seemed a bit too far north, then corrected some. So does that continue, or hold?