January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Rickrd]

A tad east of 06Z

[Penn State]

Something's different about this 12z GFS.. It's a little late for the lower mid-atlantic, but it deepens and stalls a bit

[Undertakerson2.0]

12GFS a bit slower and a tad stronger. Really delivers at the R/S line. I jump from little to moderate in under 6 hrs. The culprit there was a growing area of H7 fronto that reignites just at a good time. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

https://share.newsbreak.com/5tg07m55

[Rickrd]

1 minute ago, Penn State said:

Something's different about this 12z GFS.. It's a little late for the lower mid-atlantic, but it deepens and stalls a bit

Sure does. Then Explodes!

[Penn State]

Just now, Rickrd said:

Sure does. Then Explodes!

So.. I think the legitimate question is.. Can this feature that's driving the explosive development arrive earlier? And.. Does that mean this thing really changes for a large part of the area in a good way? 

[Rickrd]

Other was 12Z 10:1 Here is Kuchera

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Penn State said:

Something's different about this 12z GFS.. It's a little late for the lower mid-atlantic, but it deepens and stalls a bit

It actually starts to bomb out a bit earlier this go around. So it does appear to consolidate. Gives credence to Clapper thought of why the shunt of moisture at one point 

[Rickrd]

Just now, Penn State said:

So.. I think the legitimate question is.. Can this feature that's driving the explosive development arrive earlier? And.. Does that mean this thing really changes for a large part of the area in a good way? 

Absolutley it can change. So won't know until tomorrow IMHO

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Rickrd said:

Absolutley it can change. So won't know until tomorrow IMHO

Great stuff guys. Really nice to step back in after hiatus and find the deep dives. 

I have to concur that we're not at end solution yet. 

[PA road DAWG]

Hmm well the gfs sure got interesting 

[kdskidoo]

49 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

What’s with the qpf nearly shutting off as it tries to go over central pa then picks back up as it gets near sne.  

I've been noticing that on several model runs, big hole or much lesser amounts right over where the 2 branches of the Susquehanna meet.  of course that close to where I live so no surprise.

[PA road DAWG]

Setup seems very similar to Dec 2020 storm.  Just a matter where that CCB band sets up 

[LUCC]

11 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Sure does. Then Explodes!

Actually puts Monmouth country, NJ and surrounding areas in play for CNJ. Still 48 hrs out, any minor changes will have an impact for those on the cusp of the R/S line, as always.

[PA road DAWG]

[Rickrd]

Off to 1-9 storm threat CYA

[telejunkie]

6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Setup seems very similar to Dec 2020 storm.  Just a matter where that CCB band sets up 

Huh...it does kinda have that feeling, doesn't it...

CMC sends SLP from Atlantic City to Smiths Point to Plymouth before shunting east....great track for the interior.

[PA road DAWG]

2 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Huh...it does kinda have that feeling, doesn't it...

CMC sends SLP from Atlantic City to Smiths Point to Plymouth before shunting east....great track for the interior.

Yea. The most recent model runs def have that CCB look of 12/2020

[PA road DAWG]

Albeit different locations 

[Wtkidz]

Movie time. Again.. 12Z GFS . 
 

 

[clm]

1 minute ago, Wtkidz said:

Movie time. Again.. 12Z GFS . 
 

 

 

Good thing you don't charge for these movies.

[KingTer]

31 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Sure does. Then Explodes!

So after about the last 12 hours of a more NW movement we get this!  Wouldn't mind at all if this snow map was accurate.

[mikeysed]

GEFS colder. Should be a good snow map - I only have precip type, can't pull Kuchera map

[clm]

While I want the GFS here to be true for me, realistically the Euro/NAM are going to be the ones for Long Island.

 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

1 minute ago, KingTer said:

So after about the last 12 hours of a more NW movement we get this!  Wouldn't mind at all if this snow map was accurate.

Almost forgot how wild the model ride is. I know all the models had upgrades, but still seems like the old days where 3 days out they get lost and chaos rules, then 2 days out they go- eh, sorry about yesterday, was suffering from random thought syndrome. Now time to get back to business.