January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

What’s with the qpf nearly shutting off as it tries to go over central pa then picks back up as it gets near sne.  

noticed that in a model run yesterday, seemed glitchy so didn't pay attention. Did think that reminded me of a mini NEMO move

[PA road DAWG]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

noticed that in a model run yesterday, seemed glitchy so didn't pay attention. Did think that reminded me of a mini NEMO move

I was thinking qpf fizzles out as it traverses the apps then re-energizes w the late capture.  

[telejunkie]

@TheRex RGEM making a statement saying you're in the game. I think a northern meso band makes sense in the scenario with a possible inverted trough. But as MJ likes to talk about, those can be fleeting....

[telejunkie]

5 minutes ago, SnowloverSid said:

I remember that the winter of 2006-07 ( also El Niño if I remember correctly) was awfully mild and almost snowless from November through mid- January.  Around January 16, we went into a cold pattern, but snow was scarce until the big Feb. 13-14 storm. February ended up being the coldest and snowiest in 14 years.

Year of the Saints storms....Valentines, Patricks, and Easter...all pretty legendary in these parts.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

As Poc mentioned the other day, not a great setup, but doable. Baby steps thing. That being said, wouldn’t take much of a shift 48 hours out for the LV to do well snow - wise. 
If I could sub out one player on the board, it would be that high. Little bit stronger, little more west, little  more south, and dig its fingers in the dirt and hold its ground. But this ain’t virtual weather.

[PA road DAWG]

4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

noticed that in a model run yesterday, seemed glitchy so didn't pay attention. Did think that reminded me of a mini NEMO move

Almost hits a wall then seaps east 

[Blizz]

So awesome seeing this thread so active!! Don't know if this will be the storm all of us south of SNE are looking for but it's great seeing posters that I looked up to for years from the accuwx boards back! 

Edited January 4 by Blizz

[JDClapper]

1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Almost hits a wall then seaps east 

Contraction due to coastal low strengthening?

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

8 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Rgem 

Yes, that has been a head scratcher with every run of that model. Almost doing a minny  Miller B.

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

@TheRex RGEM making a statement saying you're in the game. I think a northern meso band makes sense in the scenario with a possible inverted trough. But as MJ likes to talk about, those can be fleeting....

I concur with this. Attending that also seems to be a nose of dry air at H7 (700mb). Interesting, but is that signal real or is it just RDPS?

[MDBlueridge]

3k NAM/RGEM look quite similar down here in the hills. Sure seems like the snow axis is getting nailed down.  Down this way starting to look quite elevation dependent, but with enough rates and cold clash may be some surprises. Pretty well matching NWS current thinking. 

 

Edited January 4 by MDBlueridge

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Contraction due to coastal low strengthening?

 

6 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

3k NAM/RGEM look quite similar down here in the hills. Sure seems like the snow axis is getting nailed down.  Down this way starting to look quite elevation dependent, but with enough rates and cold clash may be some surprises. 

 

I noticed in the AFD for CTP they mentioned timing of a mega strong jet streak being coincidental with lapse rates that support enhanced precipitation for some time. I'd estimate that to be around 5-9 p.m. (give or take).

[TheRex]

16 minutes ago, SnowloverSid said:

I remember that the winter of 2006-07 ( also El Niño if I remember correctly) was awfully mild and almost snowless from November through mid- January.  Around January 16, we went into a cold pattern, but snow was scarce until the big Feb. 13-14 storm. February ended up being the coldest and snowiest in 14 years.

I skied on April 15 of that year (I remember the date because it was tax day) at Killington and it was cold and snowing heavily.  It was like being on the mountain in January, except there was much more daylight at the end of the day.  That was a great spring for skiing.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

I noticed in the AFD for CTP they mentioned timing of a mega strong jet streak being coincidental with lapse rates that support enhanced precipitation for some time. I'd estimate that to be around 5-9 p.m. (give or take).

Even after all these years, i still get stimulated when you talk all dirty 😀😀

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Even after all these years, i still get stimulated when you talk all dirty 😀😀

Now don't go making me need a cold shower...

[TheRex]

15 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

@TheRex RGEM making a statement saying you're in the game. I think a northern meso band makes sense in the scenario with a possible inverted trough. But as MJ likes to talk about, those can be fleeting....

Wow!!  Thanks for pointing this out.  I wasn't expecting more than an inch or two.  I would guess ratios will be high up this way, which may help us out. 

I bought a new to me car yesterday, I'll see about getting the snow tires on it asap.

[Wtkidz]

Please note  for you health and the safety of  others.

snow events can cause see below

Cure is simple. Look at a global  long range model and there will be a new storm . 

Edited January 4 by Wtkidz

[Weathertop]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Hi

So happy to see my Early Morning Weather Guru has returned. I missed reading your weather updates as I woke up each morning. York, PA seems to be right on the edge of this event, which has been typical for a few winters. A small shift one way or another(30-50 miles) is the difference between a nuisance(nickel and dime event) and a moderate event for us.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Now don't go making me need a cold shower...

Ya had me at lapse rate 😀

[Rush]

14 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

3k NAM/RGEM look quite similar down here in the hills. Sure seems like the snow axis is getting nailed down.  Down this way starting to look quite elevation dependent, but with enough rates and cold clash may be some surprises. Pretty well matching NWS current thinking. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Irrespective of what the models show as snow output, we'd do well to bear in mind MJ's analogy about the brick in the mud (or was it the yard) 

If my increasingly feeble mind recalls correctly, it is along the lines of (heavily paraphrasing)- Before the storm, if you can't kick a brick up out of the mud - you'll get accumulation at best levels - if you can kick the brick along easily - you'll probably lose a good deal of qpf to melting. 

[RobB]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Irrespective of what the models show as snow output, we'd do well to bear in mind MJ's analogy about the brick in the mud (or was it the yard) 

If my increasingly feeble mind recalls correctly, it is along the lines of (heavily paraphrasing)- Before the storm, if you can't kick a brick up out of the mud - you'll get accumulation at best levels - if you can kick the brick along easily - you'll probably lose a good deal of qpf to melting. 

Seems risking hurting your toe to me 😜

[Undertakerson2.0]

8 minutes ago, Weathertop said:

So happy to see my Early Morning Weather Guru has returned. I missed reading your weather updates as I woke up each morning. York, PA seems to be right on the edge of this event, which has been typical for a few winters. A small shift one way or another(30-50 miles) is the difference between a nuisance(nickel and dime event) and a moderate event for us.

Awww shucks (looks down dragging toe side to side trying to hide blushing cheeks) 

The R/S line creeps closely, at the same time the best dynamics are also overhead. It will thump from the N MD region, up to LV for a few great hours me thinks. 

[Jon Snow]

7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Irrespective of what the models show as snow output, we'd do well to bear in mind MJ's analogy about the brick in the mud (or was it the yard) 

If my increasingly feeble mind recalls correctly, it is along the lines of (heavily paraphrasing)- Before the storm, if you can't kick a brick up out of the mud - you'll get accumulation at best levels - if you can kick the brick along easily - you'll probably lose a good deal of qpf to melting. 

Or just have your kids run through the mud in crocs, see if they lose the crocs in the mud.

[Rickrd]

12Z GFS. LP Hugging coast