January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Rickrd]

2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Sorry , but just brings back too many GFS memories.. Too many mood swings. Gets with the huge kick west today, more amplification. Then goes flatter , less amped till late. So was the 18z just a blip  in GFS headspace.

You dance with the model you brought dude. Give her time. 
 

What do you call two idiots in a blizzard?

Numb and Number.

Edited January 4 by Rickrd

[Rickrd]

4 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Cmc snowmap? I can't load it

 

4 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Cmc snowmap? I can't load it

 

[SnowloverSid]

1 hour ago, clm said:

Make sure Snobal has some popcorn too!!

[mikeysed]

GFS Ens looks better

[Penn State]

4 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

GFS Ens looks better

True.. more hits, less total misses. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

From the Blizzard of ‘96 post analysis by NOAA.. What’s today? January 3rd? @JDClapper

huh isn't that something. I wasn't even 5 yet...

[Burr]

14 minutes ago, Penn State said:

True.. more hits, less total misses. 

BREAKING NEWS: The GEFS runs outta ink at the NJ border.  It’s white in all these variations, run after run, due to a simple printer malfunction.  

[so_whats_happening]

Looking at CMC and RGEM you see the changes in orientation and consolidation of the energy packet. You can also see a much more different look over SE Canada with the energy for the 50/50. Unfortunately can't go NA mode for RGEM so kept em both in similar appearance.

 

[so_whats_happening]

33 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looking at CMC and RGEM you see the changes in orientation and consolidation of the energy packet. You can also see a much more different look over SE Canada with the energy for the 50/50. Unfortunately can't go NA mode for RGEM so kept em both in similar appearance.

 

GFS at hr 54 shows a closed low over northern MO and Iowa region and actually digs the energy in the SW much more than the CMC or RGEM, but it is less overall from previous runs. Has a similar placement and strength for the energy near SE Canada.

Overall we are just abut locked in track wise with some minor wiggles and changes. The one thing about the change in orientation of the energy in the Mississippi valley region is it could slow the exit of the system just a bit more than expected so maybe the GFS with the extended light precip after the main bulk may not be all too wrong.

I would also expect if the trend in SE Canada is slower and more influence from the energy in Canada that this would get a further south tick in time. Just something to keep eyes on in the next 2 days.

Edited January 4 by so_whats_happening
change up some wording

[Rickrd]

Ahhhh. Remembering these hours of waiting between GFS and Euro 0z runs. The eyes would get heavy.
saving grace is as the days got closer to the event, the output would come sooner.  

[Penn State]

5 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Ahhhh. Remembering these hours of waiting between GFS and Euro 0z runs. The eyes would get heavy.
saving grace is as the days got closer to the event, the output would come sooner.  

I’m staying up.. but this Euro run better be worth it. I’m about asleep lol

[Rickrd]

2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I’m staying up.. but this Euro run better be worth it. I’m about asleep lol

lol. None of it is worth it. Addiction is tough to overcome. 

Edited January 4 by Rickrd

[tool483]

12 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Ahhhh. Remembering these hours of waiting between GFS and Euro 0z runs. The eyes would get heavy.
saving grace is as the days got closer to the event, the output would come sooner.  

Yes! It kind of feels like the old accu days to be honest...and we're all that snow starved. . good to see familiar names 

This storm is looking better on the 0z runs, that snowblower is buried man, I hope it still works, looking forward to tomorrows runs, good luck all

Edited January 4 by tool483

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

lol. None of it is worth it. Addiction is tough to overcome. 

I’ll tell you what’s been fun though.. I’ve enjoyed the discussion. In the January 2016 storm, I requested to be part of the AccuWeather Forums, but was never approved. I had to sit on the sidelines, but I learned a lot from you all. It’s really been a lot of fun the last couple days. 

[Rickrd]

5 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I’ll tell you what’s been fun though.. I’ve enjoyed the discussion. In the January 2016 storm, I requested to be part of the AccuWeather Forums, but was never approved. I had to sit on the sidelines, but I learned a lot from you all. It’s really been a lot of fun the last couple days. 

Damn straight. I learned so freaken much back then. If you remember ATown? He was great and him and I talked a lot on the sidelines. He had issues, but knew his stuff. Loved to combat why others were wrong. Sadly he passed a few years back. But I remember a lot he showed me. 

Edited January 4 by Rickrd

[Penn State]

6 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Damn straight. I learned so freaken much back then. If you remember ATown? He was great and him and I talked a lot on the sidelines. He had issues, but knew his stuff. Sadly he passed a few years back. But I remember a lot he showed me. 

That’s one I don’t remember.. but there was a Super Typhoon.. or ST. Honestly though, I remember you, MDBR, Poc, Clapper, PARD, and MJ the most. It’s also a bit amazing to me the story of the forum, being on the ropes twice and coming back. That temporary merger, and then the split.. it’s thriving again, and good to see. 

Edited January 4 by Penn State

[eddygeeme]

I found my group of weather weenies and degenerates lol. We'll see what this storm brings. Forecast is for 2-4 in here IMBY in Germantown we've only had 2 in so far this year. 

Edited January 4 by eddygeeme

[Rickrd]

1 minute ago, Penn State said:

That’s one I don’t remember.. but there was a Super Typhoon.. or ST. Honestly though, I remember you, MDBR, Poc, Clapper, and MJ the most. It’s also a bit amazing to me the story of the forum, being on the ropes twice and coming back. That temporary merger, and then the split.. it’s thriving again, and good to see. 

Yup. All good dudes. Knowledgeable too. Glad RTC is back. ST was the bomb. Really knew his shit. This forum is great. Low key, informative, fun. Perfect. 

[eddygeeme]

6 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Damn straight. I learned so freaken much back then. If you remember ATown? He was great and him and I talked a lot on the sidelines. He had issues, but knew his stuff. Loved to combat why others were wrong. Sadly he passed a few years back. But I remember a lot he showed me. 

Aww man that sucks I remembered ATown from Allentown I remembered him and PARD and the NE PA crew talking about their dreaded snow hole.😆

[Rickrd]

0z Euro rolling. 
so far energy at Hr 48 a bit more wrapped. 

Edited January 4 by Rickrd

[Rickrd]

1 minute ago, eddygeeme said:

Aww man that sucks I remembered ATown from Allentown I remembered him and PARD and the NE PA crew talking about their dreaded snow hole.😆

He was a good guy. He loved going over into American forum and roughed those guys up. They ended up banning him. 

[Penn State]

Looks good at 60

Edited January 4 by Penn State

[Rickrd]

SW energy holding back/seperated  this run. Let’s see where she goes

Edited January 4 by Rickrd

[tool483]

Just now, Penn State said:

Looks good at 60

 

[Penn State]

Definitely NW..