January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Burr]

2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

We now have an Instagram Page as well! 

Followed

[ionizer]

3 minutes ago, Burr said:

Followed

do tiktok next

[Rickrd]

5 minutes ago, Burr said:

Followed

Same. Followed. Instagram, FB and X. 
and nice job! Only know how to use 1 out of 3 but it is what it is. 

Edited January 4 by Rickrd

[JDClapper]

Just filling the gap .. 21z SREF, now goes through 7am Sunday.

 

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, Poco said:

This might get weird the next day or so lol.  That Midwest energy could slow down a transfer and ring out the moisture.  Nam should fill in if trend continues 

Yea thinking what you are thinking here. Lets see what happens.

[JDClapper]

[MaineJay]

[Rickrd]

10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Very cool

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on
 

[Penn State]

25 minutes ago, ionizer said:

do tiktok next

Oh good lord.. No. Though a snowbal TikTok would be glorious. 

[JDClapper]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on
 

They included "windshield wipering"!!!! 

 

The exact track of this surface low will determine what specific impacts there will be. 12z deterministic guidance has shifted back toward the northwest, which is not unexpected given the normal `windshield wipering` that occurs within this timeframe. The thinking of previous forecasts remains relatively the same with this update. The most likely outcome appears to be the surface low tracking off the Delmarva coast and hugging the NJ coastline. With strong easterly winds aloft, and sea surface temperatures near 50 degrees, it will be tough for any impactful snow within Delmarva and the NJ Coastal Plain as warm marine air will be funneled in. This track appears favorable for mainly snow in the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern NJ north of I-78. In this setup, the I-95 corridor will be right on the line of rain/snow, however it is becoming increasingly more likely that the Philadelphia area sees mainly rain and only minor snow accumulations at most. We have gotten into the QPF period for the first half of the storm, with snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos up until Saturday evening. Areas in northern NJ are around an inch, though the onset of precipitation will be later up there, hence the smaller amounts up until 00z Sunday. Full storm totals will come with tonight`s update as a majority of the storm will be encompassed within the QPF period by then. In terms of winds with this system, they have trended down slightly. Thinking it will mainly be 20-30 MPH for most spots on land and gusts 30-40 MPH at the immediate coast. Given the saturated ground, this could cause some tree damage and scattered power outages. QPF in total has also trended down, though some spots that stay mainly rain could see an inch, that could be heavy at times. The Weather Prediction Center has locations that will be mainly rain with this system in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. Again, given the saturated surface, there could be rises in creeks and small streams.

[Penn State]

25 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Same. Followed. Instagram, FB and X. 
and nice job! Only know how to use 1 out of 3 but it is what it is. 

Hey.. I’m not the best either. I’m trying to balance accurate reporting and not just posting for likes. I feel like some folks.. like Mark Margavage (if anyone recognizes that name).. does that, and it hurts his credibility. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Great write  - up by Holly. I shall remember this Hoeflich cat. I gotta get his number 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

They included "windshield wipering"!!!! 

 

The exact track of this surface low will determine what specific impacts there will be. 12z deterministic guidance has shifted back toward the northwest, which is not unexpected given the normal `windshield wipering` that occurs within this timeframe. The thinking of previous forecasts remains relatively the same with this update. The most likely outcome appears to be the surface low tracking off the Delmarva coast and hugging the NJ coastline. With strong easterly winds aloft, and sea surface temperatures near 50 degrees, it will be tough for any impactful snow within Delmarva and the NJ Coastal Plain as warm marine air will be funneled in. This track appears favorable for mainly snow in the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern NJ north of I-78. In this setup, the I-95 corridor will be right on the line of rain/snow, however it is becoming increasingly more likely that the Philadelphia area sees mainly rain and only minor snow accumulations at most. We have gotten into the QPF period for the first half of the storm, with snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos up until Saturday evening. Areas in northern NJ are around an inch, though the onset of precipitation will be later up there, hence the smaller amounts up until 00z Sunday. Full storm totals will come with tonight`s update as a majority of the storm will be encompassed within the QPF period by then. In terms of winds with this system, they have trended down slightly. Thinking it will mainly be 20-30 MPH for most spots on land and gusts 30-40 MPH at the immediate coast. Given the saturated ground, this could cause some tree damage and scattered power outages. QPF in total has also trended down, though some spots that stay mainly rain could see an inch, that could be heavy at times. The Weather Prediction Center has locations that will be mainly rain with this system in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. Again, given the saturated surface, there could be rises in creeks and small streams.

How are ya Clap? Hope all is well. I took a few years off to work on self - improvement stuff. As you can see from the posts, the process is still on going. 

[JDClapper]

Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

How are ya Clap? Hope all is well. I took a few years off to work on self - improvement stuff. As you can see from the posts, the process is still on going. 

lol Baby steps man, you'll get there someday.  All is well in the Port!

[Chris2333]

39 minutes ago, Penn State said:

We now have an Instagram Page as well! 

What a loser zero followers….

[LongIslanGurlllll]

So who is going to push the snow towards Long Island? 🫣

[Penn State]

2 minutes ago, LongIslanGurlllll said:

So who is going to push the snow towards Long Island? 🫣

Since @LongIslanGurlllll posted.. time to break out the Titos for the 00z suite. 

[LongIslanGurlllll]

Just now, Penn State said:

Since @LongIslanGurlllll posted.. time to break out the Titos for the 00z suite. 

I bought a new bottle with a new sweater 

[MaineJay]

10 minutes ago, LongIslanGurlllll said:

I bought a new bottle with a new sweater 

It's like a voodoo doll.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Will be curious to see if later model runs up the precip amounts. Really been a long term theme for months. And the long remembered, roughly 7 day pattern. Lot of people round these parts have been complaining for months about the  non - stop weekend events, and my PSU friends that tailgate with RV's said it was the worst 'gating season in years - cold and rainy.  Tried to tell them the 7 day pattern thang, and they just said shut up geek - is it gonna rain or not. 

[LongIslanGurlllll]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

It's like a voodoo doll.

Yes!!!! That what I got too!

[NJ Snowman]

19 minutes ago, LongIslanGurlllll said:

So who is going to push the snow towards Long Island? 🫣

Titos!!!

[TLChip]

I think surface maps can be a bit deceiving sometimes.

 

 

When you look at the 500 vort you can get a much better picture. The difference around WV is impressive.

 

 

[Miller A]

4 hours ago, TLChip said:

Snobal said.. the NAM is out of range, give it another day. Someone’s got the pic somewhere 🤣

 

 

Edited January 4 by Miller A