January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[telejunkie]

41 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

RGEM and Euro temps. The battleground is setting up. 

NWS Sterling seems to have a pretty good take

Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast
starting late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night
are forecast to be below freezing for most of the area. However,
there is considerable uncertainty to the east of US-15 as easterly
winds advect in a warmer marine airmass and strong WAA ahead of the
surface low help to increase temps along/east of I-95. All that
being said, precipitation is likely to start out as snow west of US-
15 and a rain/snow mix along/east of US-15. As the morning
progresses, areas east of I-95 are most likely to transition to a
cold rain, with steady snow west of US-15, and a mix in between.

Having the surface high well to the north and weak onshore flow
preceding the surface low are not generally favorable for
accumulating snow along I-95. Any chance to see higher snow
totals there will be dependent on higher precip rates and wet
bulb effects overcoming the marginal temperature profile.

Still, p-type is going to be highly sensitive to the track of the
low, with a tight rain-snow gradient likely. Significant snow
accumulations are most likely along/west of the Blue Ridge and
Catoctins. Where precip is more likely to be in the form of rain,
near and east of I-95, there is the potential for instances of
flooding. Continue to monitor the progress of this storm as the
weekend approaches.

Yeah....for Mainiac, it's the difference between +3F and -3F....

Seriously though, you'd hope higher rez model would do better...but feel like Euro usually leans on the colder side and Canadian leans warmer, so kinda surprised.

[MDBlueridge]

Just now, telejunkie said:

Yeah....for Mainiac, it's the difference between +3F and -3F....

Seriously though, you'd hope higher rez model would do better...but feel like Euro usually leans on the colder side and Canadian leans warmer, so kinda surprised.

3k NAM usually nails Temps down here. Euro/rgem always seem to warm for ridges. GFS/ukmet are terrible for temps

[Wtkidz]

Just an FYI.  Maybe things will change . 

[RobB]

 

[tool483]

Good to see alot of people here, happy new year!

Bernie did post another video today if anyones interested, located here

 

[Chris2333]

6 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

Just an FYI.  Maybe things will change . 

[Sentinel]

Glad to see everyone here! As a staff we are excited for this threat as well. That withstanding - and I have said this before - meteorology is the recognition of weather patterns and using of models to help make forecasts. Models are not the end all be all, as we all know. So, I issue this word of caution:

The overall weather pattern is not conducive for snow for the I-95 corridor from Southern Connecticut on Southward. Now, just because weather patterns are not conducive does not always mean the areas outlined will do poorly. That withstanding, as has been mentioned by myself and others, there is a high likelihood of either rain or a prolonged period of white rain for the I-95 corridor. The reasons for this is mainly due to the lack of cold air. The high pressure setup is not truly funneling cold air into the I-95 corridor. The high pressure extends from Southern Canada and into the Western Atlantic. This, in turn, will allow for easterly winds off of the Atlantic for the coastal areas. Therefore, as the storm is developing, it is likely to bring the relatively warm boundary layer air from the ocean and into the coastal regions. This setup is normally conducive for a coastal front setup, which - while enhancing snowfall rates to the northwest of the front-  those on the opposing side are relatively warm and wet not white.

Of course, sometimes mesoscale features can and will trump the macro scale features. However, what I believe the models are seeing is this area of intense lift that will be generated, yet I do not believe they have accurately reflected boundary layer Temps for the coastal regions.

Just something to keep in mind and to keep your expectations tempered. Of course, there are other potential flies in the ointment, however this is the largest threat I see to the coastal regions at this time. 

[lvnbraves]

I know you're right about 95..but it's been so long since we've seen snow around Baltimore.  It's easy to get excited and crushed.  My youngest turns 9 on Tuesday and desperately wanted snow on her birthday, I was hoping this would be a little early surprise.  Boo.

[Chris2333]

4 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Glad to see everyone here! As a staff we are excited for this threat as well. That withstanding - and I have said this before - meteorology is the recognition of weather patterns and using of models to help make forecasts. Models are not the end all be all, as we all know. So, I issue this word of caution:

The overall weather pattern is not conducive for snow for the I-95 corridor from Southern Connecticut on Southward. Now, just because weather patterns are not conducive does not always mean the areas outlined will do poorly. That withstanding, as has been mentioned by myself and others, there is a high likelihood of either rain or a prolonged period of white rain for the I-95 corridor. The reasons for this is mainly due to the lack of cold air. The high pressure setup is not truly funneling cold air into the I-95 corridor. The high pressure extends from Southern Canada and into the Western Atlantic. This, in turn, will allow for easterly winds off of the Atlantic for the coastal areas. Therefore, as the storm is developing, it is likely to bring the relatively warm boundary layer air from the ocean and into the coastal regions. This setup is normally conducive for a coastal front setup, which - while enhancing snowfall rates to the northwest of the front-  those on the opposing side are relatively warm and wet not white.

Of course, sometimes mesoscale features can and will trump the macro scale features. However, what I believe the models are seeing is this area of intense lift that will be generated, yet I do not believe they have accurately reflected boundary layer Temps for the coastal regions.

Just something to keep in mind and to keep your expectations tempered. Of course, there are other potential flies in the ointment, however this is the largest threat I see to the coastal regions at this time. 

If I could only speak like this haha. I just say to people “look the rain snow line is always near us because that’s how it is historically.” Great breakdown as always. I think we are (as one in that eastern side of the line) just so starved for snow we are trying to be optimistic for anything at this point. 

[telejunkie]

Well after looking at 12z roundup...think I'm starting to move into the the camp that I want this system on the weaker side and the trailing energy to be deeper/stronger. A stronger trailing s/w suppresses heights for the mid-week system, forcing it to the coast further south....the thought may not make me popular right now, but fby, that seems like a best-case scenario.

Edited January 3 by telejunkie

[ionizer]

18 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Glad to see everyone here! As a staff we are excited for this threat as well. That withstanding - and I have said this before - meteorology is the recognition of weather patterns and using of models to help make forecasts. Models are not the end all be all, as we all know. So, I issue this word of caution:

The overall weather pattern is not conducive for snow for the I-95 corridor from Southern Connecticut on Southward. Now, just because weather patterns are not conducive does not always mean the areas outlined will do poorly. That withstanding, as has been mentioned by myself and others, there is a high likelihood of either rain or a prolonged period of white rain for the I-95 corridor. The reasons for this is mainly due to the lack of cold air. The high pressure setup is not truly funneling cold air into the I-95 corridor. The high pressure extends from Southern Canada and into the Western Atlantic. This, in turn, will allow for easterly winds off of the Atlantic for the coastal areas. Therefore, as the storm is developing, it is likely to bring the relatively warm boundary layer air from the ocean and into the coastal regions. This setup is normally conducive for a coastal front setup, which - while enhancing snowfall rates to the northwest of the front-  those on the opposing side are relatively warm and wet not white.

Of course, sometimes mesoscale features can and will trump the macro scale features. However, what I believe the models are seeing is this area of intense lift that will be generated, yet I do not believe they have accurately reflected boundary layer Temps for the coastal regions.

Just something to keep in mind and to keep your expectations tempered. Of course, there are other potential flies in the ointment, however this is the largest threat I see to the coastal regions at this time. 

How dare you come here and bring logic to our fantasies!  😉

[Penn State]

3 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Well after looking at 12z roundup...think I'm starting to move into the the camp that I want this system on the weaker side and the trailing energy to be deeper/stronger. A stronger trailing s/w suppresses heights for the midweek system, forcing it to the coast further south....the thought may not make me popular right now, but fby, that seems like a best-case scenario.

It's not a bad thought.. that one has higher end potential if it were to track in the right direction. At least IMO. There's also that one on the 14th.. but that's too far out to think about with so much going on over the next 5-7 days. Though.. it feels like tanking for a higher draft pick lol

Edited January 3 by Penn State

[Penn State]

The old Nambino is running.. Maybe it will join the party this time. 

[Rickrd]

7 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Well after looking at 12z roundup...think I'm starting to move into the the camp that I want this system on the weaker side and the trailing energy to be deeper/stronger. A stronger trailing s/w suppresses heights for the mid-week system, forcing it to the coast further south....the thought may not make me popular right now, but fby, that seems like a best-case scenario.

Totally agree with you!

[Miller A]

1 hour ago, MDBlueridge said:

That was a "smell the rain" run

smells like ass

[MDBlueridge]

16 minutes ago, Penn State said:

The old Nambino is running.. Maybe it will join the party this time. 

The NAM is the only one that hasn't been grabbing juice as it rides up the coast and then gets sheared out. Only 3rd run inside 84 hours so even at 18z I'm interested to see what it does. 

Edited January 3 by MDBlueridge

[Wtkidz]

27 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Well after looking at 12z roundup...think I'm starting to move into the the camp that I want this system on the weaker side and the trailing energy to be deeper/stronger. A stronger trailing s/w suppresses heights for the mid-week system, forcing it to the coast further south....the thought may not make me popular right now, but fby, that seems like a best-case scenario.

I got chastised on another forum suggesting that very thoughts . You had above. .  I said the way I the trend is the people in sweet spot may not get any snow when it stops. Who knows ?

Edited January 3 by Wtkidz

[jbrumberg]

The NWS/B-N office has updated their discussion of this pending weather system

Spoiler

Saturday night into Sunday

Considerable uncertainty remains with respect to potential
impacts from a coastal low pressure system that is expected to
pass south of southern New England Saturday night into Sunday.
What we know at this time is that there will be enough moisture
over the region to produce precipitation and there will be
enough cold air to support snowfall for much of interior
southern New England. A plowable snow (3-4+ inches), looks to be
likely for areas along and west of the I- 95 corridor from
Providence to Boston where ensemble probabilities of 24-hour
snowfall exceeding 3 inches are to 50 to 60 percent. If we
double that amount to 6 inches, probabilities come down to 30 to
40 percent, where the highest probs are generally across
Worcester county and portions of western Middlesex county in MA.

An important note with respect to this guidance is that the
probabilities assume a uniform 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. SLRs
may be a bit higher across the interior where colder
temperatures will reside and may be substantially lower along
the coastal plain and east of I-95 where milder temperatures
will reside. At this point, confidence is highest in at least
minor impacts to travel across the interior zones of southern
New England. The greatest area of uncertainty is east of I-495
where the storm track will dictate how cold the air gets and how
much accumulating snow will be possible. We will have more
confidence in the storm track and how that will affect overall
impacts across southern New England hopefully by the end of the
week. Until then, continue to monitor updates to the forecast
and prepare for potential impacts to travel across southern New
England on Sunday.

 

And 2 related Snow Graphics:

Edited January 3 by jbrumberg

[JDClapper]

54 minutes ago, Penn State said:

The old Nambino is running.. Maybe it will join the party this time. 

Nope 😅

BUT, improved, I guess

[Wtkidz]

For giggles and grins… 

 

[Squepp]

Good to see familiar names here. I was an AccuWeather member as well and had that whole weird situation with the other board. Anyways glad to be here. Thanks

[Rickrd]

Just now, Wtkidz said:

For giggles and grins… 

 

NAM says "SHE GONE"

Wouldn't pay much attention to long range NAM better 24-36 hrs prior.

[TLChip]

Snobal said.. the NAM is out of range, give it another day. Someone’s got the pic somewhere 🤣

[Miller A]

1 hour ago, tool483 said:

Good to see alot of people here, happy new year!

Bernie did post another video today if anyones interested, located here

 

And Bernie disrespecting me in Toms River by plastering his mug over my locale.  I guess no chance at all for the Jersey coast.  

[MaineJay]