January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Shipwreck]

I just wanted to jump on and thank everyone here for all the insight and model tracking.  It is exciting to finally have a potential snow event to watch out for after so long here in the Philly area without snow, and very cool to see so much activity from everyone here.  Thank you. 

I don't have much to add - but I am fascinated by the ability of the various weather models to predict such chaotic/turbulent atmospheric physics so far out.  Thanks to all who are interpreting the output of these models as this thing progresses.  Depending on how things come together, I may see some snow here in Bucks County PA, or maybe a good dump on Elk Mountain where I am traveling to Sunday morning.  Fingers crossed    

[Rickrd]

Oh boy Euro

[JDClapper]

5 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Oh boy Euro

My hero.

[Rickrd]

Euro 12z shift n and w this run. 
I now get slop

north and west get the goods. 

Edited January 3 by Rickrd

[mikeysed]

Rick do you have the Ukie Kuchera snow map that ran before the Euro?

[MDBlueridge]

1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Euro 12z shift n and w this run. 
I now get slop

That was a "smell the rain" run

[Rickrd]

Just now, mikeysed said:

Rick do you have the Ukie Kuchera snow map that ran before the Euro?

I do not

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

High escaping east on that run.

[Snowadelphia]

What happens when your progressive corollary is the least progressive of the bunch?

 

[clm]

10 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Oh boy Euro

Yuck, I get rain or mix.

[Rickrd]

2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

High escaping east on that run.

Dealing with just the right amount of cold so the HP staying put is key. Too much, she goes south and east. To little, she goes more N and W. Thread the needle time. 

[TLChip]

If it rains in berks, PARDs getting the goods. 

[Rickrd]

12z Euro clown map. 

[Rickrd]

Euro last 3 run comps

[MDBlueridge]

RGEM and Euro temps. The battleground is setting up. 

NWS Sterling seems to have a pretty good take

Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast
starting late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night
are forecast to be below freezing for most of the area. However,
there is considerable uncertainty to the east of US-15 as easterly
winds advect in a warmer marine airmass and strong WAA ahead of the
surface low help to increase temps along/east of I-95. All that
being said, precipitation is likely to start out as snow west of US-
15 and a rain/snow mix along/east of US-15. As the morning
progresses, areas east of I-95 are most likely to transition to a
cold rain, with steady snow west of US-15, and a mix in between.

Having the surface high well to the north and weak onshore flow
preceding the surface low are not generally favorable for
accumulating snow along I-95. Any chance to see higher snow
totals there will be dependent on higher precip rates and wet
bulb effects overcoming the marginal temperature profile.

Still, p-type is going to be highly sensitive to the track of the
low, with a tight rain-snow gradient likely. Significant snow
accumulations are most likely along/west of the Blue Ridge and
Catoctins. Where precip is more likely to be in the form of rain,
near and east of I-95, there is the potential for instances of
flooding. Continue to monitor the progress of this storm as the
weekend approaches.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

3 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Dealing with just the right amount of cold so the HP staying put is key. Too much, she goes south and east. To little, she goes more N and W. Thread the needle time. 

Pretty significant jump in one run. Lets see how it plays out.

[Rickrd]

Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Pretty significant jump in one run. Lets see how it plays out.

Keep saying we have to wait until she clears the Rockies. 

[Chris2333]

2 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

12z Euro clown map. 

It’s time for this…

 

going to have to pull it back now…

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

3 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Keep saying we have to wait until she clears the Rockies. 

And i think i am going back into retirement.

[Wtkidz]

16 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

What happens when your progressive corollary is the least progressive of the bunch?

 

The end of the world ..///

[Wtkidz]

 

26 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Dealing with just the right amount of cold so the HP staying put is key. Too much, she goes south and east. To little, she goes more N and W. Thread the needle time. 

 I deal with that on every storm. Literally on the R/S line on 95 %5 of storms. 

Edited January 3 by Wtkidz

[Hiramite]

Time for this season's first "Guess the Snowfall" contest.  Deadline is Friday midnight. Eight locations to guess. For any new members, don't be shy, give it try.  Hopefully its self explanatory, but post any questions in the "Games and Contests" thread or PM me.

Thx and good luck.

Here's a link to the contest...

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/476-january-6-7-2024-guess-the-snowfall-contest/#comment-61892

 

[LUCC]

[Jon Snow]

4 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Come on man, surely you are not throwing the towel before Snobal.

[Rickrd]

Euro Ensemble mean and control. Not bad at this point.