January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Pghsnow]

UKie doesn't go out far enough...

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Pghsnow said:

UKie doesn't go out far enough...

Unfortunately.. it does not. Sometimes I look at a combination of the surface, precip, and temps to get an idea. Seems in-line through 144.. thought a bit warm. Still cold enough.. it would appear. 

[Pghsnow]

So glad this looks like a Sunday storm. I get in Saturday evening from San Diego. 

[Penn State]

Just now, Pghsnow said:

So glad this looks like a Sunday storm. I get in Saturday evening from San Diego. 

I’ll take a weekend storm.. the only reservation for me is that my daughter’s birthday party is scheduled for the 7th.. and this could throw a wrench, but we can reschedule if need be. 

[JDClapper]

We just might have a storm on our hands folks! 0z EPS for Interior PA. Look at that glorius ensemble signal. Euro op went bonkers too.

[JDClapper]

Seems like models went from 0 to hero real quick these past 24-36 hours.. storms every few days coming up, with wintry potential in each them.

Hero to zero in the next 24-36? 🤷‍♂️

[JDClapper]

6z GFS off the chain. Wth is happening?

I'm scared guys.

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Gfs and Euro are very similar for this lead time.

 

[JDClapper]

WPC Day 7. Granted this is before all 0z had come in.

 

[PA road DAWG]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

WPC Day 7. Granted this is before all 0z had come in.

 

Pretty good look!

[JDClapper]

Interesting that Euro goes all Nor'easter track, love from VA to Maine, while GFS and CMC slide it east, not bothering too many north of PA. SCPA region sitting in a good spot as it is modelled now. Unfortunately, a week out. 😭

Edited December 31, 2023 by JDClapper

[HVSNOWSTORM]

[PA road DAWG]

12 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Interesting that Euro goes all Nor'easter track, love from VA to Maine, while GFS and CMC slide it east, not bothering too many north of PA. SCPA region sitting in a good spot as it is modelled now. Unfortunately, a week out. 😭

Gfs ops seems to want to slide it east.  Gefs minics the eps and euro 

[PA road DAWG]

This far out the eps is gospel to me (h5, track, etc).   Then as we near 3-4 days out I concentrate on the ops for intensity.  

[Wtkidz]

6 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Even this is the best digital I have seen in 2 years… of course this will change. Darn it.

[Cdfarabaugh]

Did someone perform a ritual sacrifice to make this happen?  🤣🤣

How often do you see the goofs and euro both show a storm a week out? 

[bigben89]

11 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Did someone perform a ritual sacrifice to make this happen?  🤣🤣

How often do you see the goofs and euro both show a storm a week out? 

Don’t take the bait! We’ve all been here before….

[MaineJay]

I can see this threads dopamine levels spiked this morning.

Flow looks very fast and progressive, definitely lots of opportunities, but I'd stay away from the snowfall mapamphetamines for a little while.

There's still ample timing, phasing, and eager spacing discrepancies within the respective suites. Not trying to pee on anyone's parade, just presenting the challenges.

 That said, we do have great potentially here, but it's might be a "snow breeds snow" pattern with some getting multiple storms, and others just missing out.

The long weekend means more time burning out our retinas watching the model runs trickle in.

 

GEFS individual members.

[Rush]

11 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I can see this threads dopamine levels spiked this morning.

Flow looks very fast and progressive, definitely lots of opportunities, but I'd stay away from the snowfall mapamphetamines for a little while.

There's still ample timing, phasing, and eager spacing discrepancies within the respective suites. Not trying to pee on anyone's parade, just presenting the challenges.

 That said, we do have great potentially here, but it's might be a "snow breeds snow" pattern with some getting multiple storms, and others just missing out.

The long weekend means more time burning out our retinas watching the model runs trickle in.

 

GEFS individual members.

I haven't had this much digital snow in two years.  Let me enjoy it.

[MaineJay]

Other folks having issues editing their posts?  I'm trying to find the issue, but not sure if everyone is affected.

Test.. seems to be okay now 

[MaineJay]

Always funny when you see an ensemble member at 955mb almost next to a 1037mb one.

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

UKie doesn't go out far enough...

At this time, I think it can be considered "on board".

[StretchCT]

NBM trend

[Wtkidz]

We are  screwed and not in a good way,.

Sterling has it mentioned in their AFD.

Quote

As the high pressure moves east, a quick return flow will develop
ahead of a low pressure system that could bring wintry precipitation
to many locations by midday Saturday and into Saturday night. High
temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the 40s. Models are
beginning to show some agreement with next weekend`s low pressure
system in which the track of the low could be to our south and
intensify as it approaches the mid-Atlantic Coast. The consensus low
pressure system track has the low moving from central North
Carolina, across the Tidewater of southeastern Virginia and just
offshore of the Delmarva. It is too early to tell how much rainfall,
how much snowfall, locations of these types of weather, and the
timing of impact. We will need to monitor next weekend`s low
pressure system over the early part of this week.

 

 

[Wtkidz]

So when does it now require us to do a puzzle before posting. Or is I just me….. am I on a naughty list ?