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January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

Penn State

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Posted by Sentinel,

To everyone who has been/is posting, you guys have all been great. Thank you for making the first major storm thread in quite some time easy to read and moderate.  Staff/moderators - You guys rock. 
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Posted by Hiramite,

The results are in for the Guess the Snowfall contest!!!  A really close contest. Congratulations @mikered30 More details found in the Game and Contest thread. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/476-january-6-7-2024-guess-the-snowfall-contest/page/2/#comment-65652 Thx for playing!   
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jbrumberg Veteran

jbrumberg

Posted
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I was surprised to see a snow graphic posted this far out, but here it is:

And the related weather discussion from the NWS/B-N Office.

18 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

This one is bringing the codgers out of the woodwork.

😎

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

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MaineJay
MaineJay

I'm not sure it's worth rehashing the who what why where and how we all came to be here.  If you all knew how stressful it really was for us, you'd understand how we prefer to move on and let others b

Undertakerson2.0
Undertakerson2.0

Hi

MaineJay
MaineJay

ECMWF trend. It is pretty remarkable to see how the models missed the shortwave in the 4 corners area, seemed to be a blind spot for all the centers.  We've also introduced a number of smaller, northe

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

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10 minutes ago, Penn State said:

So.. I'm back at work today. I've already had a few people ask me about this storm. I like being the resident weather "expert", but I always feel like a nerd when I describe what's happening. Like, I want to say.. well, this model and this model, blah, blah.. but I'm better off keeping it elementary. But.. I hate it when I get a response like, well.. it'll probably just turn to rain. Or! The dreaded.. well, MY APP says.. 😑

Same here. Lol

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clm Grand Master

clm

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1 minute ago, MDBlueridge said:

RGEM takes a healthy sip from the gulf

 

Screenshot_20240103_101346_Chrome.jpg

Looks like the person on the advertisement is happy about that too.

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TLChip Grand Master

TLChip

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34 minutes ago, Penn State said:

The dreaded.. well, MY APP says.. 😑

I stopped telling people how nerdy I am with the weather for that reason 🤣.

 

not saying we’re pro Mets but a lot of us put time and look at the many outcomes of different models and of course we have some bias. I still think were above the “my app said” folks 👍

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WeatherFlash Rising Star

WeatherFlash

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37 minutes ago, Penn State said:

So.. I'm back at work today. I've already had a few people ask me about this storm. I like being the resident weather "expert", but I always feel like a nerd when I describe what's happening. Like, I want to say.. well, this model and this model, blah, blah.. but I'm better off keeping it elementary. But.. I hate it when I get a response like, well.. it'll probably just turn to rain. Or! The dreaded.. well, MY APP says.. 😑

Or when they start throwing out totals lol..

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Penn State Veteran

Penn State

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Just now, WeatherFlash said:

Or when they start throwing out totals lol..

Lol.. Yes. I had a guy say.. well, with those "Northeasters" you get 2 feet. 

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Chris2333 Community Regular

Chris2333

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10 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Lol.. Yes. I had a guy say.. well, with those "Northeasters" you get 2 feet. 

Or the well we didn’t get 1/2 foot yet an area literally 45 miles away gets 18 inches. Aka it the only exists in my backyard type (my SJ brethren will know what I’m talking about)

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Penn State Veteran

Penn State

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At hours 51 and 54.. it starts 2MB weaker than 06z (1007 vs 1005).. but then ends 1MB stronger at 54 at 1006..

And now it's weaker at hour 60.. I guess that doesn't mean too much. Probably fluctuates. 

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WeatherFlash Rising Star

WeatherFlash

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2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

At hours 51 and 54.. it starts 2MB weaker than 06z (1007 vs 1005).. but then ends 1MB stronger at 54 at 1006..

And now it's weaker at hour 60.. I guess that doesn't mean too much. Probably fluctuates. 

The four corners vort isn't as strong nor digging as much as it has been trending the last several runs. Still early to see if this reverses effects downstream 

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Veteran

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

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Holly being non -committal at this point. Said latest guidance shifted slightly further offshore and leaning towards weaker?? That was their 10 am update, so out of practice but they seem to be hugging a certain model. Seems to contradict the overnight trends.

as i remember with Mt. Holly from the past, it all depends on who is doing the write up.

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ionizer Collaborator

ionizer

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1 hour ago, Snowadelphia said:

It was a suspicious business model to say the least. 

Yeah, I feel like he was either

(A) taking a cut

(B) just super bad at managing server utilization or bandwidth

(C) cra-cra.  Some of those rants made me think this person has never socialized in real life

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jbrumberg Veteran

jbrumberg

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10 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

Or the well we didn’t get 1/2 foot yet an area literally 45 miles away gets 18 inches. Aka it the only exists in my backyard type (my SJ brethren will know what I’m talking about)

Elevation dependent snow events confuse some lowlander-types here in Western MA

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Penn State Veteran

Penn State

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Just now, Rickrd said:

GFS is 3 MB Stonger this run. Another step up I guess

It's just weak sauce in terms of precip and speed.. I get maybe 6 good hours. 

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PA road DAWG Mentor

PA road DAWG

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Just now, Penn State said:

It's just weak sauce in terms of precip and speed.. I get maybe 6 good hours. 

Qpf always been a gfs issue.  At this stage I’m just worried about storm formation and location on the gfs.  It’s always been terrible w qpf

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

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Just now, Penn State said:

It's just weak sauce in terms of precip and speed.. I get maybe 6 good hours. 

Ya, been pretty steady last several runs on track

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Poco Mentor

Poco

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44 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

RGEM takes a healthy sip from the gulf. Sorry for screenshots and people staring at you from ads lol

 

Screenshot_20240103_101346_Chrome.jpg


MDBR slowly working up to promoting his only fans.  

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