January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[clm]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

and no one wants to touch the I95 corridor.

Have you ever driven that?  It's insane.  🤪

[JDClapper]

Long range SREF plumes show optimism. But man, those things can tank hard within 24 hours lol just another tool.. a tool from the 1950s which is rusted and duct taped together, but it helps, sometimes

[PA road DAWG]

1 hour ago, bigben89 said:

Warmer?

Stronger more consolidated 

[DanaEaves]

Hi all! Glad to have found this site! I’m a long time follower of most of you, back from the accuweather forums that I joined in like 2006-2007, to the other site which I’m incredibly annoyed asked for subscribers, then went down and is asking for MORE money (when I already paid $50 for nothing) so I’m grateful for you all here.

My husband owns a contracting company that works in Morris/sussex/warren/passaic counties of NJ, so knowing what might be ahead in a more clear way than what the TV news tells you is priceless for us! Thanks again! 

[Rickrd]

1 minute ago, DanaEaves said:

Hi all! Glad to have found this site! I’m a long time follower of most of you, back from the accuweather forums that I joined in like 2006-2007, to the other site which I’m incredibly annoyed asked for subscribers, then went down and is asking for MORE money (when I already paid $50 for nothing) so I’m grateful for you all here.

My husband owns a contracting company that works in Morris/sussex/warren/passaic counties of NJ, so knowing what might be ahead in a more clear way than what the TV news tells you is priceless for us! Thanks again! 

welcome aboard! good bunch here. A lot of good posters here and offer great insight. 

[clm]

6 minutes ago, DanaEaves said:

Hi all! Glad to have found this site! I’m a long time follower of most of you, back from the accuweather forums that I joined in like 2006-2007, to the other site which I’m incredibly annoyed asked for subscribers, then went down and is asking for MORE money (when I already paid $50 for nothing) so I’m grateful for you all here.

My husband owns a contracting company that works in Morris/sussex/warren/passaic counties of NJ, so knowing what might be ahead in a more clear way than what the TV news tells you is priceless for us! Thanks again! 

Welcome aboard.  Keep in mind most (not all) of those tv weather people are reading a script.  No theory like back in the old days.  I don't mind hearing I will get 6 to 12 inches of snow, but give me some more theory, i.e. @MaineJay is going to hog all the snow for himself so I get nothing, or @Mainiac is feeling the Christmas spirit so he'll donate all of his snow to me.  😁

Edited January 3 by clm

[MaineJay]

13 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Long range SREF plumes show optimism. But man, those things can tank hard within 24 hours lol just another tool.. a tool from the 1950s which is rusted and duct taped together, but it helps, sometimes

They aways seem too moist on the N and NW of these types of systems.

[bwala]

9 minutes ago, DanaEaves said:

Hi all! Glad to have found this site! I’m a long time follower of most of you, back from the accuweather forums that I joined in like 2006-2007, to the other site which I’m incredibly annoyed asked for subscribers, then went down and is asking for MORE money (when I already paid $50 for nothing) so I’m grateful for you all here.

My husband owns a contracting company that works in Morris/sussex/warren/passaic counties of NJ, so knowing what might be ahead in a more clear way than what the TV news tells you is priceless for us! Thanks again! 

Same for me with that other site. So glad i found this site!!!!

[Snowadelphia]

11 minutes ago, DanaEaves said:

Hi all! Glad to have found this site! I’m a long time follower of most of you, back from the accuweather forums that I joined in like 2006-2007, to the other site which I’m incredibly annoyed asked for subscribers, then went down and is asking for MORE money (when I already paid $50 for nothing) so I’m grateful for you all here.

My husband owns a contracting company that works in Morris/sussex/warren/passaic counties of NJ, so knowing what might be ahead in a more clear way than what the TV news tells you is priceless for us! Thanks again! 

It was a suspicious business model to say the least. 

[DanaEaves]

5 minutes ago, clm said:

Welcome aboard.  Keep in mind most (not all) of those tv weather people are reading a script.  No theory like back in the old days.  I don't mind hearing I will get 6 to 12 inches of snow, but give me some more theory, i.e. @MaineJay is going to hog all the snow for himself so I get nothing, or @Mainiac is feeling the Christmas spirit so he'll donate all of his snow to me.  😁

That’s why this site is so great!!! Thanks for all you all do here!

[TheComet]

1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

6z euro looks good. Better than 00z

Who will come out on top after all is said and done, euro or gfs? 

[Rush]

12 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

They aways seem too moist on the N and NW of these types of systems.

Love me some SREF plumes in the run up to an event.  No other model likes to punch you in the gut with digital snow vs reality quite like them.

 

Surprised no one posted that awesome looking 84 hour nam this morning 😄

Edited January 3 by Rush

[MDBlueridge]

18 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

They aways seem too moist on the N and NW of these types of systems.

 

Edited January 3 by MDBlueridge

[Penn State]

8 minutes ago, Rush said:

Love me some SREF plumes in the run up to an event.  No other model likes to punch you in the gut with digital snow vs reality quite like them.

 

Surprised no one posted that awesome looking 84 hour nam this morning 😄

I think the NAM was looking for a laugh.. The RDPS looked decent. 

[MDBlueridge]

24 minutes ago, Rush said:

Love me some SREF plumes in the run up to an event.  No other model likes to punch you in the gut with digital snow vs reality quite like them.

 

Surprised no one posted that awesome looking 84 hour nam this morning 😄

Its trying to grab trailing energy this time we'll see if it makes i

Edited January 3 by MDBlueridge

[Penn State]

Well.. the NAM was uninspiring lol 

[telejunkie]

10 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Texted you that this never ending 7 day weekend pattern has produced lots of blow up  , slow movers. Does it get caught in the block in time?? Let her hit her toes on land first.

RTC in the house! This one is bringing the codgers out of the woodwork. See if UT stops by. 

This one is starting to feel real. Now I’ll sound like a Harvard president without proper citations…lots of vorts traversing the region and how they end up interacting will make or break it for many. Still lots of detail changes to come…

[MaineJay]

Not one to trust the long range NAM, but it's trying to completely deamplify the wave, and phase some northern energy in the follow up. Not sure even in this scenario if there world be sufficient moisture return. It would probably have to siphon it off the first storm.

 

[clm]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Not one to trust the long range NAM. it's trying to completely deamplify the wave, and phase some northern energy in the follow up. Not sure even in this scenario of there world be sufficient moisture return. It would probably have to siphon it off the first storm.

 

So in other words, the NAM is using Bounty, the Quicker Picker Upper, to absorb most of the storm and not give us much snow.

[Penn State]

So.. I'm back at work today. I've already had a few people ask me about this storm. I like being the resident weather "expert", but I always feel like a nerd when I describe what's happening. Like, I want to say.. well, this model and this model, blah, blah.. but I'm better off keeping it elementary. But.. I hate it when I get a response like, well.. it'll probably just turn to rain. Or! The dreaded.. well, MY APP says.. 😑

[Rush]

2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

So.. I'm back at work today. I've already had a few people ask me about this storm. I like being the resident weather "expert", but I always feel like a nerd when I describe what's happening. Like, I want to say.. well, this model and this model, blah, blah.. but I'm better off keeping it elementary. But.. I hate it when I get a response like, well.. it'll probably just turn to rain. Or! The dreaded.. well, MY APP says.. 😑

My app says 100% chance of snow.  

ONE HUNDRED PERCENT!

[MDBlueridge]

This is cool. Warning level snow chances. 

[clm]

5 minutes ago, Penn State said:

So.. I'm back at work today. I've already had a few people ask me about this storm. I like being the resident weather "expert", but I always feel like a nerd when I describe what's happening. Like, I want to say.. well, this model and this model, blah, blah.. but I'm better off keeping it elementary. But.. I hate it when I get a response like, well.. it'll probably just turn to rain. Or! The dreaded.. well, MY APP says.. 😑

I know all too well the "my app says.....".  Because for some, if it doesn't come from an app, it didn't happen.  🤦‍♂️

[BuckeyeGal]

14 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Not one to trust the long range NAM, but it's trying to completely deamplify the wave, and phase some northern energy in the follow up. Not sure even in this scenario if there would be sufficient moisture return. It would probably have to siphon it off the first storm.

 

I'm glad you can decipher what it was doing, because to me it was just crapping all over everyone's party. Lol.

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

This is cool. Warning level snow chances. 

Ooo, red!