January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[1816]

6 minutes ago, RobB said:

 

Page Topper: 

If everybody in the world held hands around the equator, most of them would drown.

Edited January 3 by 1816

[PA road DAWG]

Just now, 1816 said:

Hahaha I was just going to post this.  

[RobB]

2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Hahaha I was just going to post this.  

Too funny... 😁

[Wtkidz]

At least I had my digital snow on Sunday and Monday 😜

[PA road DAWG]

14 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

At least I had my digital snow on Sunday and Monday 😜

Haha digital snow vs real snow is like looking at Elon musk bank account (digital) and mine (real) 

[ionizer]

6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Haha digital snow vs real snow is like looking at Elon musk bank account (digital) and mine (real) 

I'll take digital Elon money any day as that leverage buys more than anyone's actual account

[MaineJay]

It felt like we were having a good party, now it feels like

 

[1816]

14 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It felt like we were having a good party, now it feels like

 

[MaineJay]

There's still something to track, there's still changes that will happen. I know that it doesn't look as sexy, and chasing the big one is quite fun. But, chatting weather with fellow geeks, studying the models, and comparing, looking for the clues to what's driving the solutions, there's value in that.  

 So let's not get too down.  The best storms aren't always forecasted with pin point accuracy from D8. They tormented us, zagging when you thought they would zig, only to zag at the last minute, a sneaky northern stream shortwave that "gets it done".

  I know we aren't always the funniest, and some of us could probably use a shower, but I hope folks stick around no matter where the models go from here, and "talk shop".

[1816]

Just now, MaineJay said:

There's still something to track, there's still changes that will happen. I know that it doesn't look as sexy, and chasing the big one is quite fun. But, chatting weather with fellow geeks, studying the models, and comparing, looking for the clues to what's driving the solutions, there's value in that.  

 So let's not get too down.  The best storms aren't always forecasted with pin point accuracy from D8. They tormented us, zagging when you thought they would zig, only to zag at the last minute, a sneaky northern stream shortwave that "gets it done".

  I know we aren't always the funniest, and some of us could probably use a shower, but I hope folks stick around no matter where the models go from here, and "talk shop".

Also, if everyone could just wait about a week and a half things will start looking up. 

 

Probably. 

[MaineJay]

3 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Also, if everyone could just wait about a week and a half things will start looking up. 

 

Probably. 

Definitely maybe.

[Penn State]

4 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Smokey and the Bandit.. probably one of my all-time favorite movies. 

[Penn State]

Well.. Maybe the ECMWF can mount a charge at 00z. Doesn’t look so bleak at 18z. 

[TheRex]

2 hours ago, 1816 said:

Slowly draining snow hopes over the course of 4 or 5 runs is just not dramatic enough. More of an emotional quarter operated mall rocking horse than a Rollercoaster. We need an epic naming for 2 or 3 runs then pull the rug out all at once to restore balance to the force. 

 

1 hour ago, Rickrd said:

This is so f’d up. We go thru this time and again. 7 days out, huge storm. 4 days out it dwindles, I’m insane. 
Will wait until Friday. 
but….   Better to have seen potential then to have no potential. {Socrates}

 

1 hour ago, RobB said:

 

I couldn't resist

[1816]

2 minutes ago, TheRex said:

 

 

I couldn't resist

[JDClapper]

24 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Well.. Maybe the ECMWF can mount a charge at 00z. Doesn’t look so bleak at 18z. 

I dunno, I'm kind of in the camp that models are having a small hiccup with that SW piece. Watch how that thing gets there, its not clear cut.

Hey, models could also be near 100% close to the final solution 4 days out, happens all the time. 😬

 

[StretchCT]

NBM trend

[Penn State]

11 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

I dunno, I'm kind of in the camp that models are having a small hiccup with that SW piece. Watch how that thing gets there, its not clear cut.

Hey, models could also be near 100% close to the final solution 4 days out, happens all the time. 😬

 

I hope that’s the case.. The comments by Tomer Burg on X have me a little worried. 

[MDBlueridge]

1 minute ago, Penn State said:

I hope that’s the case.. The comments by Tomer Burg on X have me a little worried. 

Just enjoy the ride my friend. The solution is never as exciting. Best part is we just don't know yet. I always hope to be surprised at the end and get drunk along the way. 

Edited January 3 by MDBlueridge

[TLChip]

Holding my breath for tomorrows runs, still in the decent axis but we’ll see what happens. 
 

Most storms over-preformed so far, but it’s been all rain. 
 

Always interesting as we come into NAM long range. 💣

Edited January 3 by TLChip

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

There's still something to track, there's still changes that will happen. I know that it doesn't look as sexy, and chasing the big one is quite fun. But, chatting weather with fellow geeks, studying the models, and comparing, looking for the clues to what's driving the solutions, there's value in that.  

 So let's not get too down.  The best storms aren't always forecasted with pin point accuracy from D8. They tormented us, zagging when you thought they would zig, only to zag at the last minute, a sneaky northern stream shortwave that "gets it done".

  I know we aren't always the funniest, and some of us could probably use a shower, but I hope folks stick around no matter where the models go from here, and "talk shop".

I will say the CMC did have this type of solution last night which is very surprising. We will keep hopping around but still do think there is a swath of snow that develops with this. It may be rough along 95 but it does look like just NW of 95 may be able to get just enough cold air versus just being in interior regions for snowfall. We should tame snow total expectations but if anything so far this year has been common is that systems have been much more precip abundant than models had shown so that is a positive.

Today it went to a more intact system so I wouldn't be surprised if models do come back for 00z runs but will continue to hold off that thought for now.

Edited January 3 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

SREFs are quite a bit slower, maybe a little deeper with the main trof, less emphasis on that SW shortwave compared to the GFS.

[Sentinel]

4 hours ago, MDBlueridge said:

Looks just like 12z. 

*ducks thrown shoes* 

Umm... Can you still duck at your... Nvm... Of course you can fall down. But can you get back up?? 

2 hours ago, Rickrd said:

This is so f’d up. We go thru this time and again. 7 days out, huge storm. 4 days out it dwindles, I’m insane. 
Will wait until Friday. 
but….   Better to have seen potential then to have no potential. {Socrates}

Sometimes I feel like we need to go to group therapy or something 😅😅

2 hours ago, 1816 said:

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Definitely maybe.

[Sentinel]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will say the CMC did have this type of solution last night which is very surprising. We will keep hopping around but still do think there is a swath of snow that develops with this. It may be rough along 95 but it does look like just NW of 95 may be able to get just enough cold air versus just being in interior regions for snowfall. We should tame snow total expectations but if anything so far this year has been systems have been much more precip abundant than models had shown so that is a positive.

Today it went to a more intact system so I wouldn't be surprised if models do come back for 00z runs but will continue to hold off that thought for now.

Personally... I'm still going with NW of 95..

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Personally... I'm still going with NW of 95..

I still think ill be threading the needle down here in Lancaster, ill be in gettysburg on saturday anyway so that should be interesting!