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January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

Penn State

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Posted by Sentinel,

To everyone who has been/is posting, you guys have all been great. Thank you for making the first major storm thread in quite some time easy to read and moderate.  Staff/moderators - You guys rock. 
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Posted by Hiramite,

The results are in for the Guess the Snowfall contest!!!  A really close contest. Congratulations @mikered30 More details found in the Game and Contest thread. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/476-january-6-7-2024-guess-the-snowfall-contest/page/2/#comment-65652 Thx for playing!   
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MaineJay
MaineJay

I'm not sure it's worth rehashing the who what why where and how we all came to be here.  If you all knew how stressful it really was for us, you'd understand how we prefer to move on and let others b

Undertakerson2.0
Undertakerson2.0

Hi

MaineJay
MaineJay

ECMWF trend. It is pretty remarkable to see how the models missed the shortwave in the 4 corners area, seemed to be a blind spot for all the centers.  We've also introduced a number of smaller, northe

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Poco Mentor

Poco

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Poco said:

Don’t be suprised if you see that trailer piece dropping further down in coming runs causing Storm to tuck and turn north 

 

IMG_3634.thumb.png.295b14158734a1f9d6032cc7f9cfcf6c.png

06z gefs h5 8 run delta 

that trailer is dropping its badonkadonk the last several runs, 


to be clear this isn’t good nor bad but it’s going to be the interaction between those pieces that determines exactly what occurs. 
 

the more it holds back and drops down the weaker and quicker the front wave will rise, the faster it pushes east the faster the front runner will be pushed.  
 

I believe some runs yesterday even had it partially combining with the front runner adding some extra energy and keeping the storm pretty flat in trajectory 

Trend right now is to seperate them, drop the trailer and weaken and rise the front wave.  There’s no exact if A does this then B does that cause we’ve seen runs where the changes in these pieces didn’t matter much.  However keep trending in that certain way and the setup will reach a tipping point where the wave can’t amplify properly or it’s weak and can’t get all the moisture available.  Gut says we need to stop trending that trailer piece and hope it holds serve for now, doesn’t feel like it’s done with it though. 

 

 

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Chris2333 Community Regular

Chris2333

Posted
Posted (edited)

The one thing that seems to be consistent so far is that SNJ from Philly east is looking to be left out on the fun (which others have already said the reasoning behind this)

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MDBlueridge Experienced

MDBlueridge

Posted
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CMC SE and more robust GFS NW but has been a flopping between suppression and a phasin' 

Euro has been back and fourth as well

As @Poco mentioned tons of moisture and I'd have to guess SE ridge throws it on the NW side of the envelope

 

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telejunkie Grand Master

telejunkie

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10 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

The northern creep continues.  Darn thermals will be the death of the storm for snow in my area. 

Different angles of approach...CMC comes in more SE pushing secondary towards the coast down towards SC and hammers WV and western Virginia. GFS push primary further north, all the way to the Ohio River, before jumping to the coast. Still very early and hopefully we'll get some more clarity when the higher rez models start to come into play. 

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ChescoDude Calm

ChescoDude

Posted
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40 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

More so that we were all lurking and I’ll be real the other site went full on subscription only and I was out. 

I paid the subscription! aaaaaand the site has been down for over a week. I searched for a new forum and found you guys. So many names from the past. I am only around weather boards in the winter and a few(?) years ago when I went to Accu at the start of winter it had disappeared. So glad the other site was down and I found you guys. I think my name back then was oldSalter, I mainly just lurked. I apologize for junking up the thread.

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MDBlueridge Experienced

MDBlueridge

Posted
Posted
Just now, ChescoDude said:

I paid the subscription! aaaaaand the site has been down for over a week. I searched for a new forum and found you guys. So many names from the past. I am only around weather boards in the winter and a few(?) years ago when I went to Accu at the start of winter it had disappeared. So glad the other site was down and I found you guys. I think my name back then was oldSalter, I mainly just lurked. I apologize for junking up the thread.

Welcome aboard! 

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Chris2333 Community Regular

Chris2333

Posted
Posted
Just now, ChescoDude said:

I paid the subscription! aaaaaand the site has been down for over a week. I searched for a new forum and found you guys. So many names from the past. I am only around weather boards in the winter and a few(?) years ago when I went to Accu at the start of winter it had disappeared. So glad the other site was down and I found you guys. I think my name back then was oldSalter, I mainly just lurked. I apologize for junking up the thread.

image.gif.1d5b19eb9d4b41134bd0206a6248448c.gif

 

nah welcome back!

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mikeysed Community Regular

mikeysed

Posted
Posted

I think a lot of the local mets in the tri-state haven't had much to call the last 1.5 winters - other than ABC 7, most are very hesitant to use the word accumulating.

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Wtkidz Mentor

Wtkidz

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just throwing out something… the temps on the Atlantic are supposed to be higher than normal. Yes I know that can make it warmer but would it be possible that in makes the coastal stronger and it will take  over as primary faster ? Just my uneducated  thought. 

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SquallBall Explorer

SquallBall

Posted
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59 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

I agree. Subscription pushed me away.  I don’t mind donating.  Just don’t like to be commanded. 

i donated a bunch also, but it did go to full on subscription. i was happy to see so many familiar names in here form the accu days.... 

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telejunkie Grand Master

telejunkie

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13 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Get ready for Ukie - looks colder

Ukie looks like a good middle ground regarding primary between further SE CMC and further NW GFS to my amateur eye...

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TLChip Grand Master

TLChip

Posted
Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I know this.. I’d like to see this NW trend pause. I’m sure it’s good for some folks though! 

Yes please, more back and forth. 

Edited by TLChip
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MDBlueridge Experienced

MDBlueridge

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Ukie looks like a good middle ground regarding primary between further SE CMC and further NW GFS to my amateur eye...

closing in on euroish. But euro has been back and fourth as well. Not even to meso country yet...

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted
Just now, Penn State said:

You can see the difference here.. 

IMG_0650.thumb.png.0ef1f9c0ca20656b39a8b3ddccd10151.png

Could very well be seeing that "tipping point" Poc mentioned earlier. Ensembles seeing it before the Op runs? /shrugs

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Seems like amounts are down across the board on the 12z GFS. General impact area looks pretty uniform though.. 
IMG_0649.thumb.png.d7ad4a9e5db39de4277cb6e371226ef2.png

e14 FTW! 😂

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Penn State Veteran

Penn State

Posted
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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

e14 FTW! 😂

Oh man.. the despair that would cause. Oof. 
 

Also.. next one is a page topper, make it a good one! 

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