January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Penn State]

06z GEFS Members.. 

[Wtkidz]

Please replace the word contents  with storm tracking .

 

 

[Penn State]

06z GEFS mean.. 

[LUCC]

06z NAM pre-game:

[Penn State]

Just now, LUCC said:

06z NAM pre-game:

I really hope the NAM does its thing when the time comes.. just for the digital snow impact alone. 

[LUCC]

Just now, Penn State said:

06z GEFS mean.. 

These are always screwed up for the Delmarva/NJ/NYC and northern coastal areas, you can see the contours in those areas are boxy and straight lines, everywhere else on the map is normal

[JDClapper]

6 minutes ago, Penn State said:

06z GEFS mean.. 

GEFS reading MJs thoughts and spitting out those results as to say "I gotchu bro". Haha 🙂

[RPHSnamwolp]

4 minutes ago, Penn State said:

06z GEFS mean.. 

Can someone explain why on these gefs mean maps why the majority of NJ and the tri state area has been “cut out”- the pretty colors just don’t cover these areas? I have noticed it a few times last model runs? 

[LUCC]

2 minutes ago, RPHSnamwolp said:

Can someone explain why on these gefs mean maps why the majority of NJ and the tri state area has been “cut out”- the pretty colors just don’t cover these areas? I have noticed it a few times last model runs? 

See my post, it's the entire immediate eastcoast and basically all of NJ. 

[Snowadelphia]

10 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I really hope the NAM does its thing when the time comes.. just for the digital snow impact alone. 

 

[telejunkie]

Burlington's disco yesterday mentioned full sampling on Wednesday so hopefully better consensus tomorrow....but we all know that models don't always work that way.

Nice to see a crowd gathering! And definitely nice to see the ClapperTracker™ is back in service

Edited January 2 by telejunkie

[Penn State]

WPC Day 5 Forecast.. Solid Look. 

[Penn State]

CTP upping their percentages along with the WPC.

[Sentinel]

13 minutes ago, RPHSnamwolp said:

Can someone explain why on these gefs mean maps why the majority of NJ and the tri state area has been “cut out”- the pretty colors just don’t cover these areas? I have noticed it a few times last model runs? 

The resolution on the GFS is much larger.

So, every model has a resolution, or a grid spacing. This grid sizing averages out an area with regard to its grid. So, for example, the NAM is 12km, which means each grid space is 12x12. This, in turn, allows for higher resolution than the GFS which is 32km (32x32). As stated, the NAM resolution is therefore much more refined. So each grid space of the NAM is therefore much higher resolution and much smaller with regard to area (12x12 vs 32x32). As such, the temperature variations within this grid spacing is drastically different as each model averages the temperatures (as well as the forecast preschool type, wind, etc) in their respective grids. As such, the GFS basically looks at LI (and sometimes surrounding areas) as the Atlantic Ocean, especially in marginal temperature situations. Likewise, the GFS does tend to run warm. Therefore, the GFS lives the tri - state snow hole. 

At the end of the day, each model has their quirks due to how they are designed and therefore each model had their useful and non useful forecasting bias'. 

[Sentinel]

I know it's been said before, but it bears reiterating:

 

Cautionary note: The models have consistently exhibited significant forecast discrepancies, even within a 12-hour window of the event, sometimes resulting in boundary layer variations of approximately ±7 degrees or more. The current atmospheric conditions pose a concern for areas in and around I-95. While it doesn't rule out the possibility, it's worth noting that the high-pressure system extends into the Western Atlantic, making it less favorable for channeling cold air toward the I-95 region. In fact, the setup is conducive to the opposite effect, allowing eastward winds into the coastal areas and bringing uncharacteristically warm air from the ocean onto land. This presents a challenging scenario, particularly for the coastal sections. Just a point to bear in mind.

[MDBlueridge]

8 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

The resolution on the GFS is much larger.

So, every model has a resolution, or a grid spacing. This grid sizing averages out an area with regard to its grid. So, for example, the NAM is 12km, which means each grid space is 12x12. This, in turn, allows for higher resolution than the GFS which is 32km (32x32). As stated, the NAM resolution is therefore much more refined. So each grid space of the NAM is therefore much higher resolution and much smaller with regard to area (12x12 vs 32x32). As such, the temperature variations within this grid spacing is drastically different as each model averages the temperatures (as well as the forecast preschool type, wind, etc) in their respective grids. As such, the GFS basically looks at LI (and sometimes surrounding areas) as the Atlantic Ocean, especially in marginal temperature situations. Likewise, the GFS does tend to run warm. Therefore, the GFS lives the tri - state snow hole. 

At the end of the day, each model has their quirks due to how they are designed and therefore each model had their useful and non useful forecasting bias'. 

 

[MDBlueridge]

10 minutes ago, Penn State said:

CTP upping their percentages along with the WPC.

[Psu1313]

One thing I noticed on the NAM at 06z at hour 84 was that the 2nd energy batch was more defined and had wave spacing similar to the GFS and Euro. Normal caveats apply. We'll see if the 12z continues to show that. 

[Penn State]

CTP’s forecast discussion much improved today lol 

[RPHSnamwolp]

20 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

The resolution on the GFS is much larger.

So, every model has a resolution, or a grid spacing. This grid sizing averages out an area with regard to its grid. So, for example, the NAM is 12km, which means each grid space is 12x12. This, in turn, allows for higher resolution than the GFS which is 32km (32x32). As stated, the NAM resolution is therefore much more refined. So each grid space of the NAM is therefore much higher resolution and much smaller with regard to area (12x12 vs 32x32). As such, the temperature variations within this grid spacing is drastically different as each model averages the temperatures (as well as the forecast preschool type, wind, etc) in their respective grids. As such, the GFS basically looks at LI (and sometimes surrounding areas) as the Atlantic Ocean, especially in marginal temperature situations. Likewise, the GFS does tend to run warm. Therefore, the GFS lives the tri - state snow hole. 

At the end of the day, each model has their quirks due to how they are designed and therefore each model had their useful and non useful forecasting bias'. 

Appreciate the feedback!!

[Penn State]

Little long-range NAM action.. 

Edited January 2 by Penn State

[Penn State]

Is it just me.. or does the NAM look a bit better organized. All similar. 

[Psu1313]

Just now, Penn State said:

Is it just me.. or does the NAM look a bit better organized. All similar. 

I was thinking the same thing. Timing is a bit slower which has me intrigued/concerned about interaction with the trailing wave and what that means but that ridging out front is pretty. 

[Greenjacket]

30 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

I know it's been said before, but it bears reiterating:

 

Cautionary note: The models have consistently exhibited significant forecast discrepancies, even within a 12-hour window of the event, sometimes resulting in boundary layer variations of approximately ±7 degrees or more. The current atmospheric conditions pose a concern for areas in and around I-95. While it doesn't rule out the possibility, it's worth noting that the high-pressure system extends into the Western Atlantic, making it less favorable for channeling cold air toward the I-95 region. In fact, the setup is conducive to the opposite effect, allowing eastward winds into the coastal areas and bringing uncharacteristically warm air from the ocean onto land. This presents a challenging scenario, particularly for the coastal sections. Just a point to bear in mind.

 

I95 be like:

 

 

[Penn State]

Remember way back when.. we did the “page toppers”.. we should do that again lol 

Page Topper: Boom 💥