January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Rush]

5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I'm sure it's going to be a busy day. It's nice to see so many folks coming out of hibernation!  We are getting a decent amount of traffic considering our relatively small, but slowly growing membership.   

 Welcome to any new members, some names I recognize, and I hope the guests that are viewing are enjoying and considering joining into the conversation.

  Let's keep it friendly and light, I know many are wanting for this to happen, but with 5 days to go, we know the drill.

Keep up the good work everyone.

[Chris2333]

7 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I'm sure it's going to be a busy day. It's nice to see so many folks coming out of hibernation!  We are getting a decent amount of traffic considering our relatively small, but slowly growing membership.   

 Welcome to any new members, some names I recognize, and I hope the guests that are viewing are enjoying and considering joining into the conversation.

  Let's keep it friendly and light, I know many are wanting for this to happen, but with 5 days to go, we know the drill.

Keep up the good work everyone.

It isn’t a storm until snobal says it isn’t happening…. Waiting for the hammer to drop 

[MaineJay]

WPC  my bold for this threat.

Quote

Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

159 AM EST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024 - 12Z Tue Jan 09 2024

...Major storm system to bring hazardous weather from the Gulf Coast northeastward Friday-Sunday...

...Overview...

The medium range period features a rather progressive flow pattern as a parade of storm systems traverses the country from West to East. The first will be move from the Southern Plains on Friday into the Eastern U.S. by this weekend, with increasing potential for heavy precipitation (rain to the south, snow to the north) from the Gulf Coast northeastward. The next trough drops into the West this weekend as well bringing another round of valley rain and mountain snows progressing from California into the Four Corners region. Cyclogenesis appears likely across the south-central Plains by Monday, bringing another round of heavy rainfall to parts of the South/Tennessee Valley region Monday-Tuesday, with increasing snow potential to the north and west of the low.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The guidance continues to show above average agreement on the overall synoptic scale flow pattern, but plenty of uncertainty in the details. For the initial system out of the Southern Plains on Friday, guidance agrees that a surface low will develop along the central Gulf Coast and track through the Southeast, deepening further as it exits the Mid-Atlantic early Sunday. There continues to be some key differences regarding timing and exact track of the low, which has huge implications for precipitation type, especially for more eastern areas (including major cities in the DC to NYC corridor). Generally, there seems to be an overall trend towards a faster surface low, though the UKMET remains the quickest. There are also lots of uncertainty with the exact northward extent of the track too, and the medium to smaller scale shortwave details with lower probability may have a significant effect on surface evolution, so additional adjustments in the guidance appears likely. The WPC forecast tonight relied on a non-UKMET blend for this system.

The next trough enters the Pacific Northwest late Friday/early Saturday and the guidance shows generally good agreement that it will amplify over the West before ejecting into the Plains around Monday. Guidance shows good agreement that a surface low spins up near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle early Monday generally tracking east-northeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. There is significant uncertainty though on the exact track, with the CMC being north of the overall better consensus. Given the late period timing, the WPC forecast generally stuck close to the ensemble means, with a track farther south closer to the deterministic GFS and ECMWF.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Upper low/trough into the Southern Plains on Friday should tap plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture to fuel a round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast states and perhaps nearby areas on Friday. The Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Marginal Risk area extending from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle. There is some question about how far northward instability may extend, but anomalous moisture and a leading front forming near the Gulf Coast to provide a focus, plus fairly wet antecedent conditions from short-term rainfall, seem to suggest some flash flooding potential. Heavy precipitation will spread across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and possibly the Northeast this coming weekend, with increasing potential for heavy snow to the north and west of the low. Exact amounts and precipitation type for some of the major East Coast cities remains highly uncertain at this point, but does need to be watched. The WPC winter weather outlook probabilities highlight the best potential for at least 0.25" liquid in the form of snow over the central Appalachians/interior Mid-Atlantic. Just to the east, guidance trends do show somewhat higher probabilities for accumulating snowfall near the DC-NYC corridor but highly dependent on the exact track of the low as sufficiently cold temperatures in this particular region remain marginal at best. It will continue to take some time to resolve important details given the current spread for surface low timing/track.

A smaller-scale system may bring a brief focus of enhanced rain/mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest around Friday. Then expect broader coverage of moderate to locally heavy precipitation from the West Coast/California and into the interior West by next Monday. There is a decent signal for meaningful mountain snows across parts of the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and interior mountain ranges/southern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the south-central Plains early next week should allow precipitation to move into the central U.S., with potential for moderate to heavy snow to the north of the low track.

Above normal temperatures for this weekend should be mostly confined to the far northern tier with anomalies generally plus 5-15F for highs, and perhaps as high as plus 15-25F for morning lows over parts of Minnesota/Wisconsin. Above normal temperatures also look to return to the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and eventually the East early next week. The southern two-thirds of the West should see below normal temperatures late this week, with some cooler anomalies at least 10F below normal for highs spreading across the West into the High Plains by Sunday-Tuesday as upper troughing moves over the region. Northern parts of the West should trend below normal as well.

Santorelli

 

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, Chris2333 said:

It isn’t a storm until snobal says it isn’t happening…. Waiting for the hammer to drop 

Fortunately, or unfortunately, snobal never joined up, not to say they aren't going to find us, but it's a wish we can't currently grant.

[Chris2333]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Fortunately, or unfortunately, snobal never joined up, not to say they aren't going to find us, but it's a wish we can't currently grant.

Well that changes things… wonder if that’s why we haven’t had storms in the last couple of seasons….

[JDClapper]

0z and past 4 suites.  Has sped up a little bit.. a couple days ago looking more like a SunDAYish event.. now it's up to Saturday night down this way.  Do we speed it up even more in the next 48 hours? /shrugs

 

[StretchCT]

20 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

It isn’t a storm until snobal says it isn’t happening…

Unfortunately I’m traveling all week and Snobal messages are left on the home computer. I’ll also be pretty much in missing mode unless I get a break sometime.  
Snobal can find us if they want to. 

[Cdfarabaugh]

23 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Fortunately, or unfortunately, snobal never joined up, not to say they aren't going to find us, but it's a wish we can't currently grant.

I always thought Snobal was someone with a 2nd account for comic relief......guess I'm wrong lol

[MaineJay]

10 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

0z and past 4 suites.  Has sped up a little bit.. a couple days ago looking more like a SunDAYish event.. now it's up to Saturday night down this way.  Do we speed it up even more in the next 48 hours? /shrugs

 

Wondering how faster plays out in regards to snowfall. Might blunt any warming,a modest TROWAL might be more snow than sleet, but it's less hours of snow.  

[MaineJay]

Just now, Cdfarabaugh said:

I always thought Snobal was someone with a 2nd account for comic relief......guess I'm wrong lol

Yeah, real person, not sure if it was schtick or not though, or just some degree.

 On that note, I'll try to keep an eye on new registrations, I do have a day job that limits my ability to "tune in", but I assure you I'm checking, so if someone hasn't been approved, we appreciate the patience.

[bigben89]

8 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

All 3 stations? I never watch local news unless my wife puts it on and when she does I tell her to change the station. I'll tell her the weather 10x per day but she says I just want to see what the local guys say 

Dude from Channel 11. Had 3 model run snow totals. Basically said the Euro was crap and not to believe it (highest amount).

Just thought it was funny considering how many times it will change this week.

I'm a Ray Petlin fan.

[bigben89]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

Yeah, real person, not sure if it was schtick or not though, or just some degree.

 On that note, I'll try to keep an eye on new registrations, I do have a day job that limits my ability to "tune in", but I assure you I'm checking, so if someone hasn't been approved, we appreciate the patience.

Is that "other place" even up and running?

[Chris2333]

16 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Yeah, real person, not sure if it was schtick or not though, or just some degree.

 On that note, I'll try to keep an eye on new registrations, I do have a day job that limits my ability to "tune in", but I assure you I'm checking, so if someone hasn't been approved, we appreciate the patience.

“13 pending registrations strangely enough they are all named snobal…”

[HVSNOWSTORM]

T - 4/4.5 Days

[NJ Snowman]

Well starting to look interesting.  Wish I could be here for the next model run but I'm off to jury duty to make my $5.00 for the day.  😠

[Hail_On_Me]

47 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Unfortunately I’m traveling all week and Snobal messages are left on the home computer. I’ll also be pretty much in missing mode unless I get a break sometime.  
Snobal can find us if they want to. 

I almost used SnoBall as my username when joining the other day, just to mess with people.   But then I realized I probably couldn't pull it off.   

[MaineJay]

11 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

Well starting to look interesting.  Wish I could be here for the next model run but I'm off to jury duty to make my $5.00 for the day.  😠

I can see the deliberation," whatcha think Mr Snowman?"

Mr Snowman: Euro runs in 15. Guilty.

[metsfan78]

Hey guys. Thanks for getting this going again. Gonna be fun to have something to track. We are well over due

[unluckystars13]

1 hour ago, bigben89 said:

Is that "other place" even up and running?

Nope. Longgg time lurker since the AccuWeather days. Apparently it's been so long since we got anything interesting here in NJ that I missed what happened 😬. Site is gone so I went looking for a new place to lurk and read storm banter. Only took a few minutes to find this place and recognize everyone. 

[Snowadelphia]

1 minute ago, unluckystars13 said:

Nope. Longgg time lurker since the AccuWeather days. Apparently it's been so long since we got anything interesting here in NJ that I missed what happened 😬. Site is gone so I went looking for a new place to lurk and read storm banter. Only took a few minutes to find this place and recognize everyone. 

Welcome! It has been awhile here in Philly too. 8 years since the last “big” storm (10”+) and 2 years since any measurable snowfall. 

[Hiramite]

This system looks like it might give us our first opportunity of the season for a "Guess the Snowfall" contest.  My plan is to have it ready tomorrow (1/3) morning.  Stayed tuned!!

For those that may not be familiar, here's an EXAMPLE from last year in the "WX Games and Contests" section.

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/315-march-3-4-2023-guess-the-snowfall-contest/#comment-44057

 

[MDBlueridge]

8 hours ago, Penn State said:

Also.. I’ve seen way too little of @MDBlueridge ..What say ‘ye? 

I'm no long range forecaster like @MaineJay.

Just a simple country boy who is pretty good at knowing the hills. 

Definitely becoming a believer here. Every event this season has been packed with moisture and I see no reason this one won't be as well. Big single player riding coast? Will be very interested to see what the NAM has to say. I see room NW (depending on strength) or SE, HP placement. 

[Sentinel]

Welcome to all who have found their way here. 

It is nice to see some old and new faces. 😁

[Penn State]

06z GFS overall.. Looking good!

[JDClapper]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Wondering how faster plays out in regards to snowfall. Might blunt any warming,a modest TROWAL might be more snow than sleet, but it's less hours of snow.  

Yeah, thinking faster = puts us into very typical 2-5" range, which would be no surprise but I would still be ecstatic, relative to iur current snow history. 😄