January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[clm]

50 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Actually.. Great breakdown of ‘96 here

Ah memories.  The old weather channel maps.

[Rickrd]

Euro incoming…. Please stand by….

[Penn State]

3 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Euro incoming…. Please stand by….

I feel like my expectations are higher now after the GFS.. but, like you mentioned earlier, there’s a north trend now. If we could get something in the middle, even with less qpf, that should be a good thing. 

[Rickrd]

Heights a bit higher out west so far on euro. Should be interesting run. 

[Rickrd]

Euro at hr108 looks pretty damn good for many. Moisture gathering in GOM.  

[Rickrd]

Euro a bit south and East this tun at 108

[Penn State]

Looks great at 108…

[Rickrd]

He 123 0z euro. 

[Rickrd]

126

[Hassaywx1223]

Just now, Rickrd said:

He 123 0z euro. 

Mostly everyone is asleep in the Midwest Great Lakes section can I get looks into Ohio if you don’t mind 

[Rickrd]

Game on

[Rickrd]

Just now, Hassaywx1223 said:

Mostly everyone is asleep in the Midwest Great Lakes section can I get looks into Ohio if you don’t mind 

 

[Hassaywx1223]

Just now, Rickrd said:

 

I’m in the most eastern Ohio counties in eastern Ohio I’d love to see that snow map sure looks like game on

[Rickrd]

Ahhh. Duh

[Rickrd]

Well that’s a smack in the mouth. 

[Penn State]

Overall 00z Euro..

[Rickrd]

Just now, Penn State said:

Overall 00z Euro..

Been pretty steady run to run

[Rickrd]

Night folks. Only 12-16 more model runs to hone in on this puppy. 

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, Rickrd said:

Lifetime great storm for me. 

I just okayed @RTC3-LAST CHANCE. I wasn't awake when he must've tried registering, as there were 2 attempts.  I think he had an account as @Rtc2but might've forgot the password.

But it appears...

[MaineJay]

Some consistency showing up the the GEFS.

[so_whats_happening]

Surprisingly some really close solutions between the Euro and GFS, not sure whether to believe that is a good thing or not yet. At hr 108 you can see slight negative tilt in the trough across the SE this should help ramp up the storm. The CMC doesn't quite have that look which is kind of surprising since that is the model I feel does tend to over amplify things a bit so will have to see if that is something of note in future runs from the GFS and Euro. You can see what a weaker wave will do, CMC, we have a slightly further NW track versus Euro and GFS and slightly warmer conditions as the 850mb low doesn't close off.

We do now have 2 waves in the flow as compared to having one more consolidated piece of energy from prior runs over the weekend I wonder if the models will try to do anything with this for sunday into monday. Looking at these same timeframes you can see the Euro and CMC have stronger cold push east of the Appalachians versus the GFS, fairly typical of the GFS to not show a stronger 50/50 look, but we have great placement of the high pressure in SE Canada. 

With a track like the Euro/GFS I 95 still may struggle and just NW of 95 could see a better potential of accumulation. Still think areas much further west of 95 get the best snowfalls and north of the mason dixon line. Can not rule out northern VA and western MD as the cold always sneaks in better for them. Lets hope this continues to hold for the next 3 days.

[MaineJay]

Watching the trend in the GFS. The main trof has evolved a bit, energy that was paying in early is now separate, doesn't seem to affect the solution as of now, but we'll want to watch how that changes further.  Guy reaction is that it might keep it moving west to east, but again, have to watch the evolution.

 Second is the piece of energy north of lake Superior. It's looks to modulate the college l confluence. The nightmare scenario is if it tries to phase, and makes this thing cut inland. I haven't looked close enough to see if that's a real possibility, or just me being overly cautious.

Back to sleep for a few more ZZZZZs 

 

[Wtkidz]

Well the trend as of now not friend. Definitely on the  borderline and leaning wet.due to thermal issues.
 

Sterling latest thoughts.  Good thing is there is a storm.

Quote

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be over the area Friday before moving east Friday
night, promoting dry conditions. Clouds will begin to increase ahead
of the next system however. Temperatures will be slightly below
normal.

Southern stream trough and strengthening low pressure system will
lift out of the Gulf Coast states Friday, drawing abundant moisture
into the area. Other than wobbles that can be expected in guidance
at this time range, the overall message of the forecast remains
consistent. The primary surface low will likely track just to our
southeast around Saturday night. The highest probabilities for snow,
potentially significant, remain from the Appalachians to the Blue
Ridge. Thermal issues will be likely to the east, with mostly-rain
solutions possible, especially along and east of I-95. In fact, with
over an inch of rain possible where precipitation remains liquid,
some localized flooding could occur. Given what could be a large
gradient in snow across the area, it will be important to monitor
forecast trends through the remainder of the week.

Precipitation will exit the area Sunday, although a period of
upslope snow may continue into Sunday night. High pressure will
build into the area Monday with seasonable temperatures
expected.

 

Edited January 2 by Wtkidz

[MaineJay]

EFI.  I like these because it doesn't give amounts, just how anomalous the snow in the EPS is. Values above 0.95 would be close to record for the time of year and location.

[MaineJay]

I'm sure it's going to be a busy day. It's nice to see so many folks coming out of hibernation!  We are getting a decent amount of traffic considering our relatively small, but slowly growing membership.   

 Welcome to any new members, some names I recognize, and I hope the guests that are viewing are enjoying and considering joining into the conversation.

  Let's keep it friendly and light, I know many are wanting for this to happen, but with 5 days to go, we know the drill.

Keep up the good work everyone.