January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Rickrd]

lol. Shades of 1996. 
Blizzard of 1996, 1/6/96-1/8/96. 
Then all washed away within 2 weeks. 
Actually, this year very close match to 1995/1996 weather pattern. Warm December then boom, all hell breaks lose. 
Note: drinking WOODFORD double oaked at this hour and its drink #2. 😜

[ionizer]

2 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

lol. Shades of 1996. 
Blizzard of 1996, 1/6/96-1/8/96. 
Then all washed away within 2 weeks. 
Actually, this year very close match to 1995/1996 weather pattern. Warm December then boom, all hell breaks lose. 
Note: drinking WOODFORD double oaked at this hour and its drink #2. 😜

damn, drinking on new years day - and a week before a storm?  the B4LLS on this one!! 🙂

[Penn State]

3 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

lol. Shades of 1996. 
Blizzard of 1996, 1/6/96-1/8/96. 
Then all washed away within 2 weeks. 
Actually, this year very close match to 1995/1996 weather pattern. Warm December then boom, all hell breaks lose. 
Note: drinking WOODFORD double oaked at this hour and its drink #2. 😜

NESIS #2

[Pghsnow]

[Rickrd]

4 minutes ago, ionizer said:

damn, drinking on new years day - and a week before a storm?  the B4LLS on this one!! 🙂

Ya. Off tomorrow. So figured I might as well kill the bottle I was working on last night. 

[Penn State]

Actually.. Great breakdown of ‘96 here

[Penn State]

GEFS Members.. Still some misses in there. 

Edited January 2 by Penn State

[Rickrd]

Just now, Penn State said:

Actually.. Great breakdown of ‘96 here

Ya. Remember it well. 38” here. 
was working in my basement on woodworking project and started hearing thunder. Went out side and was like holy shit!

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Ya. Remember it well. 38” here. 
was working in my basement on woodworking project and started hearing thunder. Went out side and was like holy shit!

I was about 8 years old.. favorite storm. Got me hooked on weather stuff for life. 

[Penn State]

GEFS Mean Snowfall

[so_whats_happening]

Well then! Go away from forums and models for a couple days and see this. Would be something if we approached our biggest snowstorm of the last 2 years. ~4"

[Rickrd]

2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I was about 8 years old.. favorite storm. Got me hooked on weather stuff for life. 

Easter Storm 3/29/70 did it for me. Total surprise. Got me hooked on snow for life! I was 6 years old. Yikes. 

[Rickrd]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Well then! Go away from forums and models for a couple days and see this. Would be something if we approached our biggest snowstorm of the last 2 years. ~4"

Hey. What’s happening!

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, Rickrd said:

Hey. What’s happening!

Good evening and happy new year!

[Penn State]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well then! Go away from forums and models for a couple days and see this. Would be something if we approached our biggest snowstorm of the last 2 years. ~4"

Glad you’re back! We need some meteorologist analysis around here. Is this thing going to happen, or no? 

[Rickrd]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Good evening and happy new year!

Happy New Year. 

[Sentinel]

Nice to see everyone coming out 

 

[Penn State]

Also.. I’ve seen way too little of @MDBlueridge ..What say ‘ye? 

[Rickrd]

Just an FYI. Gfs has been trending north last 3 runs. Fun to track but need to realize that. 

[Rickrd]

1 minute ago, Uscg Ast said:

Nice to see everyone coming out 

 

It is. Been boring. Hope you’ve been doing well. 

[Psu1313]

We're technically only 4 1/2 days out on this one with snow breaking out in WV, VA, and OH potentially Saturday morning. Looked at what the GFS is doing now vs at 12z and how it compared with the other models. Please note that the Euro is at 132 since the 0z hasn't come out yet. Still, the GFS seems to have come in line with better wave definition and spacing with the 2nd batch of energy over northern Texas, Our storm is able to come north earlier and the confluence to the north is pushed even further north. It's a much cleaner look. 

The CMC is notably different at 00z with the 2 pieces of energy connected. This leads to more of a Miller A look vs the Miller B look that the GFS and Euro are showing. Icon sort of splits the difference with less dig out of wave 2. I'm feeling really good about snows in the mountains of WV, VA, MD, and PA. Beyond that, still a lot of sweating to be done in the I95 and out west toward Pittsburgh. 

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Glad you’re back! We need some meteorologist analysis around here. Is this thing going to happen, or no? 

I don't see why it won't be a solid storm across the area. As for snow it really depends on just how much cold air can sneak in to areas south of the mason-dixon line, north of there seems to have a nice amount of cold to work with for now. We have a developing 50/50 low and a pretty blocked up Atlantic forming even without a decent +PNA or Greenland block just yet. This thing should still move through steadily though no real reason to slow this down considerably.

One thing we probably should watch is just how moisture laden the system gets. We have had plenty of storms come through that dropped a bit more rain/precip than models had suggested, just something to keep in mind for now. 5 days is quite a long way still so some shifting around is expected.

If I was a betting man I would say there is a solid chance at 4-8" snowstorm for interior locations coming up iffy for areas near I95 as of now, chance for more is we can actually get the cold entrenched properly. This is how you want your snowstorms fresh cold to come in ahead of moisture streaming in. Jet at 250mb has us in the mid Atlantic to SNE in the left exit region which is about as good of a chance as you get with upper level dynamics thinking thump snows is the way to go with this one for now.

Something to watch too is the energy being left behind around TX. GFS and CMC have it being held back means a weaker storm and more of a WAA push. Ill wait to see if the 00z Euro is of similar fashion.

[Rickrd]

8 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

We're technically only 4 1/2 days out on this one with snow breaking out in WV, VA, and OH potentially Saturday morning. Looked at what the GFS is doing now vs at 12z and how it compared with the other models. Please note that the Euro is at 132 since the 0z hasn't come out yet. Still, the GFS seems to have come in line with better wave definition and spacing with the 2nd batch of energy over northern Texas, Our storm is able to come north earlier and the confluence to the north is pushed even further north. It's a much cleaner look. 

The CMC is notably different at 00z with the 2 pieces of energy connected. This leads to more of a Miller A look vs the Miller B look that the GFS and Euro are showing. Icon sort of splits the difference with less dig out of wave 2. I'm feeling really good about snows in the mountains of WV, VA, MD, and PA. Beyond that, still a lot of sweating to be done in the I95 and out west toward Pittsburgh. 

Nice job

[so_whats_happening]

Just as an aside there is a chance I may even be threading a needle here in SCPA (lancaster) a less pronounced storm means less cold air flowing in quickly to sustain or changeover the rain. Again quite a few days to see what happens but it is nice to at least see snow being introduced to the area again.

[Rickrd]

47 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Actually.. Great breakdown of ‘96 here

Lifetime great storm for me. 

Edited January 2 by Rickrd