January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Rickrd]

18z Euro Ensmble runs. Last 3 runs for comparison. FWIW at this point.  
Mean Top

Control bottom 

 

[WeatherFlash]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Maps.

whoa. haven't seen a signal like that in quite sometime.  

[JDClapper]

Just now, WeatherFlash said:

whoa. haven't seen a signal like that in quite sometime.  

Certainly gives one hope for something exciting in 6 days!

[Rickrd]

Euro ensemble low positions last 3 runs

[Sentinel]

Cautionary note: The models have consistently exhibited significant forecast discrepancies, even within a 12-hour window of the event, sometimes resulting in variations of approximately ±7 degrees or more. The current atmospheric conditions pose a concern for areas in and around I-95. While it doesn't rule out the possibility, it's worth noting that the high-pressure system extends into the Western Atlantic, making it less favorable for channeling cold air toward the I-95 region. In fact, the setup is conducive to the opposite effect, allowing eastward winds into the coastal areas and bringing uncharacteristically warm air from the ocean onto land. This presents a challenging scenario, particularly for the coastal sections. Just a point to bear in mind.

[bigben89]

Local Mets in PIT are downplaying the snow threat. Probably wise given the past few years of busted forecasts.

Should be a fun week…

[Pghsnow]

8 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

Local Mets in PIT are downplaying the snow threat. Probably wise given the past few years of busted forecasts.

Should be a fun week…

All 3 stations? I never watch local news unless my wife puts it on and when she does I tell her to change the station. I'll tell her the weather 10x per day but she says I just want to see what the local guys say 

[Pghsnow]

Edited January 2 by Pghsnow

[Penn State]

All looks on track through 105… 

[WeatherFlash]

Confluence doesn't look as daunting compared to 18z and 12z runs todays. 

[Penn State]

Just now, WeatherFlash said:

Confluence doesn't look as daunting compared to 18z and 12z runs todays. 

Not at all.. sizable jump NW. Forming the envelopes. 

[Rickrd]

Tad quicker. Look out

[Penn State]

[Rickrd]

123 hr

Edited January 2 by Rickrd

[Rickrd]

126 hr 0zGFS

[WeatherFlash]

Keep all hands/items in the vehicle while the ride is in motion. 

[Penn State]

Just now, Rickrd said:

123 hr

[Rickrd]

Smoke job thru hr126

[Rickrd]

129 -135

[Rickrd]

Kuchera thru hr 138 0z GFS

[Penn State]

If the Euro could just back this right up… Oh my! 

[Rickrd]

I would take 50% of this at this point. 

[Penn State]

2 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Kuchera thru hr 138 0z GFS

[Chris2333]

Setting up to be a I95 rain/snow line right at Philly (SNJ would miss out) with a changeover on the backend. Honestly I’m loving what I see on the run so good to see a storm for once (although for me I’d be out of luck but I could care less)

[Penn State]

An overall look..