January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[TLChip]

Light snow starting in Bernville PA

Edited January 6 by TLChip

[dmg002]

2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

I see a flake in State College on mPing!  😮  

I can confirm—flurries in downtown State College.

On a side note, glad to see so many familiar friends the past few days. Happy tracking, everyone! 🍻

[Wtkidz]

Just for amusement purposes…

[Dr Tom]

First flakes flying in Mifflin County, just se of State College. Let’s see if CTP’s somewhat bold forecast (in my amateur opinion) pans out… I’d be good with that.

Good luck all!

[Hokiesvpi99]

Currently 31 degrees, and light snow falling in Gap PA. It’s been snowing for about an hour. A nice dusting on the ground. 

[ionizer]

1 hour ago, cer5059 said:

Heading outside to try and take down the lights before it begins here. Should be fine, depending on what the little blip over eastern chester county decides to do

Need to do the same before the rain

[Snowadelphia]

Some virga here in East Falls. Radar confirms moisture. Nothing hitting the ground 

[Cdfarabaugh]

Talk about going from nothing to moderate snow in the 20 minutes since I last posted.  Fine pixie dust snow. 

Picture doesn't do it justice.   Sorry for my disaster of a  backyard (and the my little pony stickers 🤣) also noticed they opened my grill lol.  

I'm gonna take the kids out to the farm today and let them get out and play in this.  Doesn't happen too often that it's not overly cold, not windy and snowing at a good clip 

[bwala]

Light snow started in Pottsville about 10 min ago.  Starting to pick up.

[Rickrd]

INCOMING!

had to say it😂

Edited January 6 by Rickrd

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Talk about going from nothing to moderate snow in the 20 minutes since I last posted.  Fine pixie dust snow. 

Picture doesn't do it justice.   Sorry for my disaster of a  backyard (and the my little pony stickers 🤣) also noticed they opened my grill lol.  

I'm gonna take the kids out to the farm today and let them get out and play in this.  Doesn't happen too often that it's not overly cold, not windy and snowing at a good clip 

That's the spirit Dad! Never apologise for disarray or Little Pony stickers LOL

Edited January 6 by Undertakerson2.0

[Snowadelphia]

3 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

Some virga here in East Falls. Radar confirms moisture. Nothing hitting the ground 

Flakes just started after I posted. Let’s see how long the snow lasts

[TheRex]

BTV saying if they missed the forecast snow totals, they probably will miss have underestimated totals.  So I've got that going for me.

It should be noted that statistical error bounds have largely
shifted to higher values for most of the North Country. This
means that if snow falls outside our forecast range (the most
likely amounts), probabilities favor higher snowfall totals
more-so than lower amounts.

[TheRex]

BTV's latest snowfall map for the area

Quote

 

[CandO100]

The overpass over 81 in Williamsport MD.

Daughter: I haven’t seen any snowplows.

Me: It’s been a long time since we’ve seen snow, they’re probably taking a moment to enjoy the beauty too.

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, CandO100 said:

The overpass over 81 in Williamsport MD.

Daughter: I haven’t seen any snowplows.

Me: It’s been a long time since we’ve seen snow, they’re probably taking a moment to enjoy the beauty too.

 

[Poco]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

Maybe that F250 near Orchard hills can come down and clean clappers driveway 

Edited January 6 by Poco

[jbrumberg]

It's a long story involving a dead refrigerator, but I had to go down to the "Big City" to restock a brand new refrigerator😱.  The Supermarket parking lot was a literal free for all with all kinds of Ma$$h*le drivers exhibiting their own unique social pathologies and all kinds of brain numb customers wandering aimlessly through the isles leaving their carts behind to their own devises.🤬🤬

I am now safe back home to finalize storm preparations.

The WSW remains, and with the predicted track, my elevation, and location I should see the higher end snow totals.🤪

From the NWS/B-N Office:

Spoiler

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
415 AM update...

Key Points...

* Significant Winter Storm remains on track for tonight & Sun
* Heavy Snow with 6-12" expected northwest of I-95
* Snow Accumulations remain uncertain near and southeast of I-95
* Flash Freeze expected in the Boston to Providence corridor Sun

Details...

Tonight and Sunday...

A significant winter storm remains on track to impact the region
tonight into Sunday. A southern stream low tracks south of New
England late tonight into Sunday morning, then rapidly intensifying
as it passes between the 40N/70W benchmark and Nantucket Sunday
afternoon, then across Georges Bank Sunday night. Here are the storm
details -

1) Timing and Precipitation Type...

There will be two rounds of snow/precipitation with this storm.

- Part 1 tonight...

Southern stream short wave and accompanying surface low is moving
across the Gulf States early this morning. Both of these features
lifts north today and impacts the region with WAA snows tonight.
Good moisture plume combines with modest mid level forcing for
ascent, enhanced by LFQ of strong subtropical jet, provides a decent
front end thumb of snow overnight. Forcing focused in the DGZ will
yield a period of 1+ inch hourly snow rates from beginning around
02z/03z west, traversing eastward and ending around 10/11z eastern
MA. This will yield difficult travel overnight.

Temps cold enough to support snow throughout the region, except the
Cape and Islands where mainly rain will occur. In the coastal plain
including Boston, 2 meter temps from the hi res guidance warms to 34-
36 but then cools back to freezing, as cold temps aloft combine with
increasing precip intensity for wet bulb temps to be realized.
Hence, snow covered roads all the way to the south and east coast.

Good model agreement late tonight and toward Sunday morning, the
rain/snow line lifts northward into central CT, eastward to around
Providence and eastward into the RT-44 corridor of eastern MA. Also,
during this time, the dry slot moves northward into CT/RI and
southeast MA. This will result in lighter mixed precip along with
improving vsbys. Also, as precip intensity slackens, temps may rise
just above freezing in the I-95 corridor and points southeast,
helping road conditions to improve somewhat.

- Part 2 Sunday: Comma head snows and Flash Freeze I-95 Corridor...

WAA snows taper off early Sunday morning as dry slot moves across
CT/RI and southeast MA. Although, light snow will continue across
northern MA, however snowfall rates will be less than overnight.
Rain/snow line Sunday morning will roughly be across central CT into
central RI and eastward into southeast MA. Then robust trailing
short wave energy arrives from the SW, resulting in a closed mid
level low forming over southeast MA and surface cyclone somewhere
between Nantucket and the 40N/70W benchmark intensifying rapidly
Sunday afternoon before exiting out to sea Sunday night. This will
result in comma head snows developing across the region and being
enhanced by a modest easterly CCB. This is where the greatest
uncertainty exist in the forecast. Models differ on how quickly this
trough amplification occurs, but the common theme is for the
greatest risk of additional moderate to heavy snow late Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon is across eastern MA. As coastal low
rapidly intensifies between ACK & benchmark, pressure falls will
result in winds shifting to the NNE. This will draw colder air from
NH southward into the coastal plain, with rain-snow line crashing
southeast to Cape Cod and the Islands. Height falls will cool the
entire column and steepen mid level lapse rates, helping to increase
snowfall rates up to an inch per hour in eastern MA during this
time. Given guidance has trended in this direction, we upgraded the
winter storm watch to a winter storm warning from northwest RI
northeast into Boston, for 4-8" snow accumulations. Southeast of
this region to the south coast, a winter weather advisory was issued
for 2-4". Thus, the time periods with greatest impact will be
overnight tonight, a temporary lull in precip intensity Sunday
morning followed by a second period of impact late Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon, with greatest impacts likely across eastern
MA.

We will also have to watch eastern/southeastern MA into RI for a
potential flash freeze Sunday afternoon. Any standing slush from
rain-snow line drifting northward late tonight/Sunday morning, will
likely see temps crashing below freezing later Sunday. This will be
in response to the low rapidly intensifying and pressure falls
drawing colder air from NH southward down the coastal plain into
eastern MA and RI. Thus, any standing slush will freeze, possibly
resulting in icy spots.

2) Headlines & Expected Total Snow Accumulations...

As mentioned above, winter storm warnings have been expanded
southeast into northwest Providence county, extending northeast into
the Greater Boston area, for 4-8" of snow. Southeast of here, winter
weather advisory has been posted for 2-6" of snow. Tricky portion of
the forecast is how much snow falls on the backside in the comma
head and how far west. Latest forecast may need to adjust snow
totals based on later trends. Farther inland, 8-12" remains in the
forecast.

3) Strong Wind Potential:

We hoisted a wind advisory for Plymouth county, Cape Cod and the
Islands for NE winds 20-30 mph gusting to 50 mph at times, as low
intensifies south of New England tonight and then rapidly
strengthens late Sunday/Sunday evening.

 

And some snow graphics:

Edited January 6 by jbrumberg

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, Poco said:

Maybe that F250 near Orchard hills can come down and clean clappers driveway 

HAHA, That's a different Williamsport in that graphic.  The town names is so awesome, they made two of them.  That truck's got a long was to go, to come UP to my driveway. 😄 

[Undertakerson2.0]

BOOM!!

[StretchCT]

The store is a mess. (I ran out of bacon)

[MDBlueridge]

White out on the hill. Few inches down. 

[TheRex]

11 minutes ago, jbrumberg said:

It's a long story involving a dead refrigerator, but I had to go down to the "Big City" to restock a brand new refrigerator😱.  The Supermarket parking lot was a literal free for all with all kinds of Ma$$h*le drivers exhibiting their own unique social pathologies and all kinds of brain numb customers wandering aimlessly through the isles leaving their carts behind to their own devises.🤬🤬

I am now safe back home to finalize storm preparations.

The WSW remains, and with the predicted track, my elevation, and location I should see the higher end snow totals.🤪

From the NWS/B-N Office:

  Hide contents

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
415 AM update...

Key Points...

* Significant Winter Storm remains on track for tonight & Sun
* Heavy Snow with 6-12" expected northwest of I-95
* Snow Accumulations remain uncertain near and southeast of I-95
* Flash Freeze expected in the Boston to Providence corridor Sun

Details...

Tonight and Sunday...

A significant winter storm remains on track to impact the region
tonight into Sunday. A southern stream low tracks south of New
England late tonight into Sunday morning, then rapidly intensifying
as it passes between the 40N/70W benchmark and Nantucket Sunday
afternoon, then across Georges Bank Sunday night. Here are the storm
details -

1) Timing and Precipitation Type...

There will be two rounds of snow/precipitation with this storm.

- Part 1 tonight...

Southern stream short wave and accompanying surface low is moving
across the Gulf States early this morning. Both of these features
lifts north today and impacts the region with WAA snows tonight.
Good moisture plume combines with modest mid level forcing for
ascent, enhanced by LFQ of strong subtropical jet, provides a decent
front end thumb of snow overnight. Forcing focused in the DGZ will
yield a period of 1+ inch hourly snow rates from beginning around
02z/03z west, traversing eastward and ending around 10/11z eastern
MA. This will yield difficult travel overnight.

Temps cold enough to support snow throughout the region, except the
Cape and Islands where mainly rain will occur. In the coastal plain
including Boston, 2 meter temps from the hi res guidance warms to 34-
36 but then cools back to freezing, as cold temps aloft combine with
increasing precip intensity for wet bulb temps to be realized.
Hence, snow covered roads all the way to the south and east coast.

Good model agreement late tonight and toward Sunday morning, the
rain/snow line lifts northward into central CT, eastward to around
Providence and eastward into the RT-44 corridor of eastern MA. Also,
during this time, the dry slot moves northward into CT/RI and
southeast MA. This will result in lighter mixed precip along with
improving vsbys. Also, as precip intensity slackens, temps may rise
just above freezing in the I-95 corridor and points southeast,
helping road conditions to improve somewhat.

- Part 2 Sunday: Comma head snows and Flash Freeze I-95 Corridor...

WAA snows taper off early Sunday morning as dry slot moves across
CT/RI and southeast MA. Although, light snow will continue across
northern MA, however snowfall rates will be less than overnight.
Rain/snow line Sunday morning will roughly be across central CT into
central RI and eastward into southeast MA. Then robust trailing
short wave energy arrives from the SW, resulting in a closed mid
level low forming over southeast MA and surface cyclone somewhere
between Nantucket and the 40N/70W benchmark intensifying rapidly
Sunday afternoon before exiting out to sea Sunday night. This will
result in comma head snows developing across the region and being
enhanced by a modest easterly CCB. This is where the greatest
uncertainty exist in the forecast. Models differ on how quickly this
trough amplification occurs, but the common theme is for the
greatest risk of additional moderate to heavy snow late Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon is across eastern MA. As coastal low
rapidly intensifies between ACK & benchmark, pressure falls will
result in winds shifting to the NNE. This will draw colder air from
NH southward into the coastal plain, with rain-snow line crashing
southeast to Cape Cod and the Islands. Height falls will cool the
entire column and steepen mid level lapse rates, helping to increase
snowfall rates up to an inch per hour in eastern MA during this
time. Given guidance has trended in this direction, we upgraded the
winter storm watch to a winter storm warning from northwest RI
northeast into Boston, for 4-8" snow accumulations. Southeast of
this region to the south coast, a winter weather advisory was issued
for 2-4". Thus, the time periods with greatest impact will be
overnight tonight, a temporary lull in precip intensity Sunday
morning followed by a second period of impact late Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon, with greatest impacts likely across eastern
MA.

We will also have to watch eastern/southeastern MA into RI for a
potential flash freeze Sunday afternoon. Any standing slush from
rain-snow line drifting northward late tonight/Sunday morning, will
likely see temps crashing below freezing later Sunday. This will be
in response to the low rapidly intensifying and pressure falls
drawing colder air from NH southward down the coastal plain into
eastern MA and RI. Thus, any standing slush will freeze, possibly
resulting in icy spots.

2) Headlines & Expected Total Snow Accumulations...

As mentioned above, winter storm warnings have been expanded
southeast into northwest Providence county, extending northeast into
the Greater Boston area, for 4-8" of snow. Southeast of here, winter
weather advisory has been posted for 2-6" of snow. Tricky portion of
the forecast is how much snow falls on the backside in the comma
head and how far west. Latest forecast may need to adjust snow
totals based on later trends. Farther inland, 8-12" remains in the
forecast.

3) Strong Wind Potential:

We hoisted a wind advisory for Plymouth county, Cape Cod and the
Islands for NE winds 20-30 mph gusting to 50 mph at times, as low
intensifies south of New England tonight and then rapidly
strengthens late Sunday/Sunday evening.

 

And some snow graphics:

If your area doesn't make double digits, I think there will be a lot of disappointments across the board with lower than expected totals.  You have the prime location for this storm it seems.  Enjoy that new fridge. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

The store is a mess. (I ran out of bacon)

Well that's understanda....

 

WAIT You ran OUT OF BACON?

HTH does that happen? Did you have a Vegan moment or something?

[Undertakerson2.0]

It's pounding snow RN and the 40Dbz stuff is not even here yet. 😬