January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[StretchCT]

41 minutes ago, GregRups said:

This has been quite bumpy so far. Guy behind me had no idea a snowstorm was coming. 

Last night I was flying up from MCO and checked the 300-200mb level winds.  Most of the way it was a cross wind of 50-70mph but there was one jet streak of 110-120mph that startled some people.  

[woodyelm]

Carlisle, PA 10-10 am.  Snowing has begun.  30 F.  81% Humidity.

[MaineJay]

7 minutes ago, chaser915 said:

30F and cloudy here; supposed to start around 4PM.

 

who sings "The Waiting" is the hardest part ?!? 

Tom Petty

[StretchCT]

12z RGEM trend - seems 6z was just a head fake.

 

[cer5059]

59 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I struggle on my phone

That's weird, my phone is fine, they go up rather than across and they don't disappear when I try to scroll up

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, StretchCT said:

12z RGEM trend - seems 6z was just a head fake.

 

Figured that, discussed at breakfast with another Nerd. 

[mikeysed]

Alright boys and girls. Departing for Crystal Springs ~1300 elevation. Based off some hi res models, could be in 3" an hour rates at some point later tonight. Will be reporting.

[Undertakerson2.0]

My bud who just left my house, reports it is snowing in Harrisburg proper

[woodyelm]

Miniature BB snow here 10:18 am.

[cer5059]

Heading outside to try and take down the lights before it begins here. Should be fine, depending on what the little blip over eastern chester county decides to do

[Miller A]

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

Good morning folks! 26° in Chambersburg. Cloudy. The anticipation builds. It’s game day p-e-o-p-l-e!!! 

It’s Gameday. And I’m the Jets. Sigh 

[Poco]

[StretchCT]

4 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Random question .. for those when using a laptop/PC and you go to select an emoji, is it super sensitive to you going off the bar and disappearing?  Sometimes it takes me 4 or 5 tries to get an emoji on the far-left side lol  No issues on phone, just laptop.

Glad you're not my surgeon....

Same thing happens to me sometimes.  I'm wondering if we can rearrange the emojis so the less popular ones are all the way to the left.  

[Sentinel]

5 hours ago, Blizz said:

MJ always looking at the bigger picture... yes sir. 😉

4 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

24.5F/ W: Clm/ Ptly Cloudy

The final vestiges of a waning crescent moon ever so slightly illuminates the BKN cloud deck. The front yard flood light reflect tiny diamonds of frost out on the lawn. 

METAR mapping shows convection in N Florida - a mini version of the JAX rule. But for even colder HP overhead, likely would enhance an already slightly increasing snowfall forecast along the spine of the Apps. 

Payday gang. Glad to be a small part of it. 

Nice to see ya! 

4 hours ago, Blizz said:

I can't believe we have UTC back, let's gooooo!!! Good morning btw 😉
 

 

Again.... 

4 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Random question .. for those when using a laptop/PC and you go to select an emoji, is it super sensitive to you going off the bar and disappearing?  Sometimes it takes me 4 or 5 tries to get an emoji on the far-left side lol  No issues on phone, just laptop.

Unfortunately it happens on my phone. I will see if Invision can fix it. 

4 hours ago, GregRups said:

Flying from Florida to Newark this morning. Landing at 12. Wondering if the pilot goes around or flies right through this thing. I’ll give you guys real time obs from the sky 🤣

3 hours ago, j33per said:

Morning team!

Long time lurker going back to AccuWeather. Appreciate the 99 pages of commentary over the past week. I get the privilege of driving from the Jersey side of Philly to Denville NJ and back. The turnpike is going to be a blast! Should be home by dinner but it's gonna be a mess. 

Lastly, although it's been a wild snow draught, I've always enjoyed the threats of snow and forum banter - learned a little bit over the years. Our time will come in Philly; I just know it.

Welcome! 

3 hours ago, Organicforecasting said:

Have you brought out the shrine yet?

Nice to see ya! 

3 hours ago, MDBlueridge said:

My wife just ok'ed selling you land with a buildable lot at 1900'. I said @Rush needs out of the valley. 

The wife and I have a non profit that may be interested.. 

3 hours ago, MDBlueridge said:

NWS just threw a new, big doppler radar just behind us at 2150'. I'm excited to watch this one. 

Nerd alert. 

2 hours ago, Wtkidz said:

Well if only we could get  hail I could have a pick 5. 
 

Stafford County

Today

Rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet this morning, then rain this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning. Patchy fog this afternoon. Precipitation may be heavy at times this morning. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs in the upper 30s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Hail, even small, causes quite the damage to cars.... I don't like it anymore lol. 

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

Good morning folks! 26° in Chambersburg. Cloudy. The anticipation builds. It’s game day p-e-o-p-l-e!!! 

2 hours ago, morgdotz said:

Hi everyone! Glad to be lurking again for another snow event. A nice *crisp* 25 degrees this morning here in Emmaus, PA. 

We have two St. Bernards who have not seen a decent snow event yet (they’re 2), so fingers are crossed for this event. 🤞 

Welcome! 

1 hour ago, TLChip said:

I struggle on my phone

Same here

1 hour ago, cer5059 said:

I have that same issue here. It's super annoying. Was going to ask yesterday but figured it was just a me issue. Need to have a real steady hand to make it all the way across 

I will see if Invision can fix

1 hour ago, George Acton said:

Just joined. Glad to be back. In Forest Hill, MD this morning with light sleet. Layers have not cooled enough. Once it is moistened enough should snow.

Welcome! 

48 minutes ago, Rush said:

Started as a mix of rain and sleet here in Maryland.  Was forecasted for 3-4".  If you are on the fringe prepare for disappointment.

Unfortunately I tend to agree with the sentiment. I'm not loving this set up. Too much warm air that can funnel in and downstream obs are confirming it. 

34 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Precip rates can overcome the earth push for a little while, going you get some snow for the "kiddos". 

21 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

Nam warmth highly concerning low the susquehanna valley. Notorious for warm avection changeovers.

Unfortunately I tend to agree with the sentiment. I'm not loving this set up. Too much warm air that can funnel in and downstream obs are confirming it. 

 

 

To all those who are new or returning.. Welcome! 

[Poco]

That post is longer than a schitchtel Wpc disco 

[HenryMarguisityJinxmachine]

9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

My bud who just left my house, reports it is snowing in Harrisburg proper

In Mechanicsburg just off creekview rd exit.  Found the sign fitting for today.

[George Acton]

Dewpoint still holding. I guess it will snow for a couple hours.

[George Acton]

4 minutes ago, Poco said:

That post is longer than a schitchtel Wpc disco 

Nice to be back Poco!!

[Sentinel]

5 minutes ago, Poco said:

That post is longer than a schitchtel Wpc disco 

 

[StretchCT]

Looking at the RAP trend for snow and trying to figure it out. 14z has 3.6 in at OXC and the 11z had 5.3.  14z run has all snow at that location. 

So it must be less precip, right?  Goes from 0.6 to 0.8. Looking at the western and northern edges of the dark blue, it seems to be pretty consistent.  But further east, especially on LI, what is going on?  Pink over Monmouth and Nassau goes to dark blue and light blue over Suffolk goes to green.  

[Weathertop]

Starting to coat the grass near York, PA.

[PA road DAWG]

Gfs looks juiccccy

[Tater]

25 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Remember, rates will dictate precip types. If it goes light it will be mix - when heavy will fall as snow

Sleet rate picked up and we finally got a few flakes mixed in. Not enough to accumulate, but I'll take what I can get at this point.

[woodyelm]

WeatherUnderground ping ponged from 8-12 an hour ago to 5-8 now.

 

[Sentinel]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Looking at the RAP trend for snow and trying to figure it out. 14z has 3.6 in at OXC and the 11z had 5.3.  14z run has all snow at that location. 

So it must be less precip, right?  Goes from 0.6 to 0.8. Looking at the western and northern edges of the dark blue, it seems to be pretty consistent.  But further east, especially on LI, what is going on?  Pink over Monmouth and Nassau goes to dark blue and light blue over Suffolk goes to green.  

Given the set up, I think we are seeing the baroclynicity at work. The storm wants to hug the coast more, which means overrun to dry slot due to h7. Combine that with the quasi coastal front like enhancement and I think this is what you are seeing here.