January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[MDBlueridge]

1 hour ago, Tater said:

We've been getting a few lazy flakes drifting down for the past few hours. I've heard it said repeatedly that snow breeds snow, so I'm expecting that to pay off this weekend.

Snow breeds snow. Been coating city here the last few days. 

[StretchCT]

Looking at the differences in 12z GFS top/Euro bottom.  Noticing:

1. the confluence area over Canada is breaking down and ridging on the Euro

2. The area over the northern plains ridge v trough (trough would allow the system to popup more)

3. Timing obviously. Euro is faster.  Not sure if that's what causes 1 and 2. 

 

[PA road DAWG]

25 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Couple things go for us. 
1. the storm track pattern the past month has been steady with fair amount of precip (1”+ for most on this thread). 
2. -NAO is not a monster and shouldn’t cause suppression. 
 

Don’t need a -nao to shunt it ots.  Confluence is Legit 

[Penn State]

Wow.. Side note.. 26 members floating around right now. That’s great to see! 

[Penn State]

As we await the 18z GFS.. the 18z ICON looked juicy.. but maybe a bit too south for most. 

[Wtkidz]

35 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

Meanwhile I’m doing the rain/snow line scenario just east of Philly…. Not like it’s happened before

 

Try living in central Virginia  just east of 95

[JDClapper]

12z suite and past 3 suites trend.. CMC steady as she goes haha

 

[JDClapper]

12z EPS cone of uncertainly.  Tightened up a little until it gets to about the southern tip of the Delmarva, then they diverge a bit.  Still, a more western lean to the clustering, like 0z had.

[JDClapper]

WPC Probs, updated at noon, so mostly based on 0z data.

 

[JDClapper]

Think 18z GFS is gonna not be as crap show as 12z was.. 

[Penn State]

Just now, JDClapper said:

Think 18z GFS is gonna not be as crap show as 12z was.. 

I agree.. At least the southern part of PA re-enters the mix. Makes we want to believe the 12z was the southernmost solution 🤞

[Rickrd]

18z GFS. Yikes

Edited January 1 by Rickrd

[Penn State]

Acceptable.. for me.. sharp cutoff. Darn confluence. 

Edited January 1 by Penn State

[Rickrd]

As always. Long ways to go. 

[StretchCT]

gets the job done

Edited January 1 by StretchCT

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Acceptable.. for me.. sharp cutoff. Darn confluence. 

way better .. farther north gets a little love after that time stamp.  I ain't sad.

[JDClapper]

18z is withing the 12z EPS envelope, albeit on the SE side of it.  Totally plausible.

[Penn State]

Solid. 

[Penn State]

Me.. refreshing model runs at 00z.. 😂

[Wtkidz]

 I am sure this not the final solution . Though it would suit me, I do not expect this to stay suppressed to benefit me. 

[PA road DAWG]

Longggg way to go yet folks.  But I will say, I’ve been down this road before lol.  2009-2010 winter and 2016.  But anyways…look at these sick analogs.  

[kdskidoo]

Just now, PA road DAWG said:

Longggg way to go yet folks.  But I will say, I’ve been down this road before lol.  2009-2010 winter and 2016.  But anyways…look at these sick analogs.  

please don't bring up 2010.  

[PA road DAWG]

Apparently i80 was built where it is in PA for a reason! 

Edited January 1 by PA road DAWG

[JDClapper]

If I'm tracing correctly, looks like 0z Thu runs should have near, if not full sample of this one.  Blue X is current 18z location.

[PA road DAWG]

Gefs also went nuts