December 27-30, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Storm

[JDClapper]

36 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

If it had some moisture to work with.

Late week will be interesting if any of us can catch lightning in a bottle before the much anticipated and talked about "pattern change" arrives next month, somehwere between the 1st and 31st. 😃

[MaineJay]

Gonna focus on the lightning in a bottle.

[JDClapper]

Not much doin in Central PA for this week flakewise, per 12z EPS... but Jan 4th area looking the most promising since who knows when. Off topic, sorry. Merry Christmas all!

 

[Wtkidz]

Merry Christmas all.

 

[MaineJay]

[MaineJay]

GFS and NAM are handling that northern stream energy slightly differently.

 

[MaineJay]

All of a sudden, a bunch of sub 980mb in the EPS.

[jbrumberg]

The NWS/B-N Office Offices's Daily discussion essentially follows @MaineJay's recent posts in a wet sense, and does mention the possibility for some "light snow" as this system exists:

Spoiler

Drier air fills in later on Thursday and the widespread rain exits
with the exit of the surface low. However, the mid level trough lags
behind, keeping the region beneath a cold pool and cyclonic flow.
This will lead to periods of rain and even some light snow around
Friday/Saturday before the return of drier air/mid level ridging for
New Year`s Eve.

 

 

[MaineJay]

A few inverted trof looking members.

[MaineJay]

Not even the mountains.

[buxtonian]

ZZZZZZZZ!!

[MaineJay]

Bottled lightning wave.

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Not even the mountains.

Dang. That's a heck of a track for all rain. 

[MaineJay]

 

GYX feeling the pain.

Quote

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview...

Much of the middle and later portions of the week will be
dominated by a slow moving trough across the eastern half of the
country. It`s influence will be felt right into the weekend,
with another one likely right on it`s heels for early next week.
This sets up an extended generally unsettled pattern, as well
as a slow and gradual cooling trend.

Details.

The trough evolves in part from a cut off low pressure system
currently located across the Central Plains. As the trough
slowly progresses eastward, low pressure is develops near the
Carolinas and moves up the Eastern Seaboard and through the Gulf
of Maine late Wednesday through Thursday. In the latest
disappointment for snow lovers, the system looks to be primarily
another rainy one with no cold air to work with. Rain
overspreads the area from southwest to northeast late Wednesday
and Wednesday. It then becomes lighter and gradually diminishes
by Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts to look to be much of a
concern at this point, with QPF amounts likely remaining under
an inch for the most part. Conditions don`t look to clear out
afterwards, with clouds and scattered showers continuing for
several days.

The original cut off low likely reaches the Carolinas by
Saturday. At the same time, a shortwave will dive southward into
New England as part of a deepening trough across the East
Coast. Low pressure will begin to develop near New England as
the shortwave reaches the coastline, but its interaction with
the cut off low across the Carolinas remains highly uncertain.
With cooler air draining in, Saturday looks to be the best
chance in the foreseeable future for snow. With so much
uncertainty regarding the multiple lows and shortwaves, POPs
remain relatively low for now until a more narrow window for
precip chances can be determined. Additionally, despite the
relative cooling trend, daytime highs likely only cool the near
normal at best, with nighttime lows still running well above
normal.

Whatever system does develop would likely be pulling away by
Sunday. Another shortwave looks likely to drop into the belly of
the trough to our southwest by early next week, signaling a
continuation of the unsettled pattern. It remains too early to
determine whether any one of these systems will become better
organized to deliver any meaningful precipitation, or just
remain generally weaker waves bringing unsettled conditions.
This will be the main matter to sort out over the coming days.

 

[MaineJay]

Seems like this is a system, the second wave, where is all about the mid levels.  

You can see why the Canadian is the snowiest.  All 4 bring a plowable to Maine, and even parts of NH.

[MaineJay]

Understanding that these are not the highest probability events, but there are a few interesting ones still, and a whole lotta spread.

[jbrumberg]

 

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

[Penn State]

@Pghsnow There’s like.. no way that happens, right? Would be quite the surprise for folks on the Mason Dixon. 

[TheRex]

So far we've received 0.22" rain from this system.  BTV's snowfall forecast through Dec 30 at 7 am.

Quote

 

[LUCC]

[Pghsnow]

12 hours ago, Penn State said:

@Pghsnow There’s like.. no way that happens, right? Would be quite the surprise for folks on the Mason Dixon. 

Very long shot no doubt and about all we have right now. 

[bigben89]

5 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

Very long shot no doubt and about all we have right now. 

NWS Pittsburgh ain’t buying it n’at.

[Wtkidz]

Well Sterling says maybe in th Allegheny mountains. We will see.

Quote

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned surface low moves NE into New England
Thursday morning, the day will start out mostly dry. Through the
day and especially overnight, the associated ULL will move into
the Tennessee Valley. Guidance has continued to trend slightly
drier for the Thursday period though a few isolated showers
cannot be ruled out. A warmer air mass will push into the region
Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s, perhaps even
pushing 60.

As the ULL works further east Friday into Friday night over the
region, several lobes of vorticity/energy will rotate around
the low and interact with the Allegheny Mountains. Colder air
arrives in our western zones throughout the day. This will
result in a period of snow. There remains some uncertainty wrt
where the energy and better forcing is located along with any
potential banding as indicated by the higher percentiles in the
ensemble suites. While a generaly 1-4" is currently forecast
across the Allegheny Front, the 90th Percentile is around 6".
Will continue to monitor. The majority of snow would fall
overnight Friday. The vast majority of this will fall in an
18-24 hour period, so some headlines are possible as we get
closer to the event.

The primary upper low then swings through on Friday, pushing a
somewhat weak cold front through the region by Friday night.
This could result in a few showers once again. However, the
primary weather threat will be mountain snow showers in upslope
flow. Colder air arrives in our western zones throughout the
day. The majority of snow would fall overnight Friday. Initial
forecast for snow totals is anywhere between 2 to 4 inches
along/west of the Allegheny Front, with some isolated higher
amounts possible. The vast majority of this will fall in an
18-24 hour period, so some headlines are possible as we get
closer to the event.