December 17-19, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Storm

[BoroBuckeye]

Winter headlines being hoisted.

[MDBlueridge]

There will definitely be some serious blowing snow conditions as this storm pulls away on the ridge tops. Will be interesting to see where/how deform band sets up and who gets a little white gold on the way out. 

[so_whats_happening]

On 12/16/2023 at 12:41 AM, Uscg Ast said:

A storm track to the West of the Tri-state would lend me to think these winds could verify.

Even if you cut these winds by 20%, you're still talking gusts in the 60s-70s.

Bombing low to the West of Tri-state with significant juice.. I would be concerned. 

Yea surprisingly this went to a more coastal low look less phasing more sling shotting then what we saw mid week. Boy is it going to be a rough one forecasting past 3-5 days, anyway yea coastal areas look to have it rough from LI to coastal Maine wouldn't be surprised if ridges also feel that crazy wind. Nantucket sure will be fun to watch what the highest values may be. Looks like late Monday morning early afternoon maybe the strongest as we may get a clearing out across SNE.

NYC area is gonna be a tricky one to forecast winds for it could be a rather sharp cutoff between SE wind threat and the more typical NW wind. That upper level low swinging in should give some solid winds for Monday evening though. It is more of the SE wind threat than the expected wind speeds further inland that should worry people. We do not typically get SE winds of 30-40mph with gusts to 50 and especially with how wet it has been the last few storms across SNE.

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

27 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

There will definitely be some serious blowing snow conditions as this storm pulls away on the ridge tops. Will be interesting to see where/how deform band sets up and who gets a little white gold on the way out. 

May get convective with that upper low swooping in may even get a snow squall here with the secondary front rolling through.

[bigben89]

Winter storm warnings are up for the ridges. 6-12 inches?

[MDBlueridge]

5 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

Winter storm warnings are up for the ridges. 6-12 inches?

Absolutely. This a great setup for upslope. Will be many places east of I79 and above 1500' that will pick up snow from this one. 

[longislander]

Seems like a delayed start for NYC Metro/Western LI, some earlier rains to the west and eastern LI but NYC metro tucked into a dry slot for now.

[1816]

Well friends, I've been driving as part of my job in one capacity or another basically all my life. So a lot of miles, lot of trips. 

I just finished 4 hours spent traversing the entire state of Virginia. I believe it was the most unpleasant, most stressful drive I have ever made. 

 

Edit: guess i should specify why. The sustained moderate to heavy rainfall never abated. The whole 4 hour ride. And the ponding water on the roadway made for a white knuckle experience especially when the sun went down. Lane markers were about invisible with the water and darkness. 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by 1816

[Wayuphere]

NOAA Caribou updated discussion:  Gonna be, fun(?)

“NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 745pm update... Rain overspreads the area tonight from southwest to northeast. Low level moisture spreading north will cause some areas of fog...most notably in higher terrain. Temperatures will rise all night. The ongoing forecast for the Sou`easter looks good and no substantive changes were made. The three major threats remain in place for Monday: winds, flooding rains, and coastal flooding. The High Wind Warning for Downeast and the Bangor area continues to look like an unfortunate reality. The highest winds will be in the afternoon and early evening. Guidance continues to advertise a 925mb low level jet with a strength between 80 and 100 kt depending on the model. The max speeds will be on the coast, but magnitudes of over 60 kt will reach Aroostook County. Guidance has been consistent on the LLJ for many days now and confidence is high. We are not dealing with the caveat of a shifting low track like a week ago. Surface gusts along the coast around 70 mph are likely to cause widespread power outages Downeast. Gusts of 55 to 65 mph further inland are a significant threat to produce power outages across the entire forecast area. The previous discussion below reiterates the concerns and uncertainties. In terms of rainfall, this is a warm core low with origins deep in the Gulf of Mexico. Deep moisture is moving north along the Atlantic Seaboard from the Caribbean and the system has been producing flooding from Florida northward into North Carolina. Flood Watches are in place from North Carolina to Maine as the system moves north tonight and tomorrow. PWs will likely be at or above record daily readings on Monday along with record high temperatures. The current Flood Watch looks good with the heaviest rain moving across the area from mid-morning into late afternoon Monday. The heaviest rain continues to show up in the upslope terrain of Piscataquis County north towards the Katahdin region. Higher terrain locations could see nearly 4 inches of rain...which is about the threshold associated with road washouts last week. Did notice a slight uptick in PWs and overall QPF in recent guidance, but not enough to make changes in ongoing headlines. The previous discussion below provides more pertinent details. The third concern is the coastal flooding. The coastal flooding section below succinctly lays out the issues for tomorrow afternoon`s high tide between 230pm and 3pm.”

 

[Eaglesfan82]

Heavy rain starting here now .37 inches today so far 

[TheRex]

Currently 39 and raining. We've received 0.18" so far. By looking at the cams, snow is falling in the mountains in the area but I expect it will be all rain shortly. 

[bigben89]

Pretty quiet here 

[StretchCT]

Tornado watch?

[StretchCT]

Crazy tropical out there now with a downpour and couple of gusts. Radar doesn’t do it justice. Was really intense for a couple of minutes then quiet again. Gonna be a rough night 

Edited December 18, 2023 by StretchCT

[Chinook]

I have almost never seen 850mb winds at 103-104 knots except with hurricane model plots. Hopefully, New England doesn't have damage from any gusts higher than currently in the warnings, which is 60mph (in the local wind warning for Rhode Island)

 

[Sentinel]

25 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I have almost never seen 850mb winds at 103-104 knots except with hurricane model plots. Hopefully, New England doesn't have damage from any gusts higher than currently in the warnings, which is 60mph (in the local wind warning for Rhode Island)

 

Those in SNE (I am including LI here) must be prepared for a potential Isais redux (2020). This looks to be a potentially nasty system. @longislander @LongIslanGurlllll

[buxtonian]

1.19 inches of rain so far in Buxton, Maine.  I can hear the wind roaring in the trees.

[Eaglesfan82]

This is terrible. 2.77 inches fell so far . I almost want to cry thinking about the wasted liquid that could have been snow 

[MaineJay]

53° here and can hear the wind roaring at times already. 1.79" in the bucket.  It's been more of a showery rain with very heavy pockets embedded.  I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets 8" of rain from this up here.

 Kinda wondering if they cancel school.

As I type, I can hear the deluge ramping up again.

We are blowing by the rainfall forecast, and it really hasn't begun.

This is supposed to be for the whole event, but that how much has already come down 

SREF are way off too.

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, Wayuphere said:

NOAA Caribou updated discussion:  Gonna be, fun(?)

“NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 745pm update... Rain overspreads the area tonight from southwest to northeast. Low level moisture spreading north will cause some areas of fog...most notably in higher terrain. Temperatures will rise all night. The ongoing forecast for the Sou`easter looks good and no substantive changes were made. The three major threats remain in place for Monday: winds, flooding rains, and coastal flooding. The High Wind Warning for Downeast and the Bangor area continues to look like an unfortunate reality. The highest winds will be in the afternoon and early evening. Guidance continues to advertise a 925mb low level jet with a strength between 80 and 100 kt depending on the model. The max speeds will be on the coast, but magnitudes of over 60 kt will reach Aroostook County. Guidance has been consistent on the LLJ for many days now and confidence is high. We are not dealing with the caveat of a shifting low track like a week ago. Surface gusts along the coast around 70 mph are likely to cause widespread power outages Downeast. Gusts of 55 to 65 mph further inland are a significant threat to produce power outages across the entire forecast area. The previous discussion below reiterates the concerns and uncertainties. In terms of rainfall, this is a warm core low with origins deep in the Gulf of Mexico. Deep moisture is moving north along the Atlantic Seaboard from the Caribbean and the system has been producing flooding from Florida northward into North Carolina. Flood Watches are in place from North Carolina to Maine as the system moves north tonight and tomorrow. PWs will likely be at or above record daily readings on Monday along with record high temperatures. The current Flood Watch looks good with the heaviest rain moving across the area from mid-morning into late afternoon Monday. The heaviest rain continues to show up in the upslope terrain of Piscataquis County north towards the Katahdin region. Higher terrain locations could see nearly 4 inches of rain...which is about the threshold associated with road washouts last week. Did notice a slight uptick in PWs and overall QPF in recent guidance, but not enough to make changes in ongoing headlines. The previous discussion below provides more pertinent details. The third concern is the coastal flooding. The coastal flooding section below succinctly lays out the issues for tomorrow afternoon`s high tide between 230pm and 3pm.”

 

You look like you might be in the worst of the winds up your way.  My dad complained that the winds last storm weren't much if a factor (he cancelled some plans for it).  I had to tell him that this one might go the opposite, and be worse than forecast.

  Good luck up there!

[MaineJay]

5 hours ago, Chinook said:

I have almost never seen 850mb winds at 103-104 knots except with hurricane model plots. Hopefully, New England doesn't have damage from any gusts higher than currently in the warnings, which is 60mph (in the local wind warning for Rhode Island)

 

The SE winds are the most damaging here also. The Oct. 2017 Sou'Easter was wicked damaging. I think it overtook the ice storm of 1998 for most power outages in Maine.

[MaineJay]

Beast

[NHSparky]

Pouring out with some good gusts of wind driving from Nashua to Burlington. Wouldn't be surprised if there are some outages today, thankfully the trees have dropped all there leaves.

[MaineJay]

Power flickered off once already....

[MaineJay]

Here's comes that low level jet.  Winds are already getting a little spicy out there, and the meat and potatoes are still a couple hours away from me.  

LI getting the brunt currently.