December 17-19, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Storm

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

91mph gusts on the nam for the Outer Cape.  Upper 80s for Montauk.

Yea se winds arent fun. Be interested to see if it verifies. Models tend to overdue but wouldnt be surprised if it gets close to high wind warning.

[Sentinel]

17 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea se winds arent fun. Be interested to see if it verifies. Models tend to overdue but wouldnt be surprised if it gets close to high wind warning.

A storm track to the West of the Tri-state would lend me to think these winds could verify.

Even if you cut these winds by 20%, you're still talking gusts in the 60s-70s.

Bombing low to the West of Tri-state with significant juice.. I would be concerned. 

[LiveWire_13]

1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said:

A storm track to the West of the Tri-state would lend me to think these winds could verify.

Even if you cut these winds by 20%, you're still talking gusts in the 60s-70s.

Bombing low to the West of Tri-state with significant juice.. I would be concerned. 

Considering NWS P&C for Sunday night in Suffolk only shows 36 mph gusts, something isn't aligning. Is the NAM on its own with these or are the feds late to the party?

[MaineJay]

The wind never really came up last storm, departure all the warnings.  I'm sure some folks up here are going to write off the winds because of that most recent event.

 Getting a little windy on my hill.

41.2°

EPS keeps the core of the worst winds a bit west of the GEFS.

A widespread 2-4" looks on tap.  Not even a lot of snow in the mountains to even be concerned about terrible flooding, winds being the bigger hazard.

[MaineJay]

17 hours ago, telejunkie said:

It looks so good on paper...

Sure does.

[JDClapper]

GFS and Euro qpf trends.. includes gfs 12z

[LUCC]

Crap, that's a lot of qpf. 😔

[Sentinel]

9 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said:

Considering NWS P&C for Sunday night in Suffolk only shows 36 mph gusts, something isn't aligning. Is the NAM on its own with these or are the feds late to the party?

Upton tends to run conservative. I tend to agree most times with them on conservatism as models really love to show non realistic expectations. That withstanding, the set up here is different than what we've seen lately. 

Yet conservatism can still win. Everything has to go 'right' for this outcome. Statistically speaking, going conservative will will almost every time. However, pattern and storm recognition makes a difference at times. I believe this may be one of those times. 

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said:

the set up here is different than what we've seen lately. 

Direct reference to that in the disco

Spoiler

There is at least more confidence regarding wind impacts for this
event. 925mb winds are progged at 60-85kt along with 55-70kt at
950mb over coastal sections late Sunday night/early Monday morning.
It appears that the low level inversion will be at least a little
weaker than with this past Sunday-Monday`s storm as temps aloft
would be cooler with SE winds instead of S-SW like the previous
system. Thinking there`s potential for 60-70% of the 925mb winds to
mix down to the surface, especially in the heavier downpours. After
collaboration with the surrounding offices, have issued high wind
watches and wind advisories as models continue to show a strong llj,
heavy downpour potential, and a storm track that would promote wind
headlines for these zones. Unlike the previous storm, NBM
probabilities of 45+ mph gusts have been increasing as we get closer
to the event - increasing the forecast confidence. Even with the llj
out of the picture by late Monday morning, the rest of Monday should
still be at least breezy as SW to W winds gusts to 30-40mph.

I was also noticing that this time around the models are NOT backing off the winds like they had for the last one.  AND the winds are further inland than the previous storms on the models.  Keep in mind we did have gusts in the 50s as was expected in the last storm too.  But not on a widespread basis, limited to coastal obs.  

[longislander]

I can tell you the last storm was bad at the immediate coast of western LI - it felt like a fire hose was being sprayed on my house during the peak, it was intense.  I guess this one will be more of the same.

[Wayuphere]

Last Mondays storm with  2.85” of rain on top of a 6” snowpack caused quite a few washouts. This was the view from the end of my road as the Maine DOT was repairing.  A normal 20 mile drive to Bangor required about 10 miles of detours.  While driving around today we noticed most fields near streams were flooded and ice covered. Snow is all gone now but I’d say 3” or more of rain on Monday will cause a lot of problems.  In my younger days, we would lace up the skates and go “cross country ice skating” when the flooded fields froze up like they currently are. Usually a January thaw event….

The coming wind event is concerning as the tree root systems are “primed” from the rain and lack of frost in the ground and now add a heavy wind plus 2 -4” of more rain…..🤦‍♂️

note to self:  finally just go buy a damn generator.

[JDClapper]

NAM, GFS and Euro qpf trend, through 0z. Back to back storms that trended EAST as we approached game time. Love to see it this time, hoping for under 1" here, when 2"+ was recently forecast.

[MaineJay]

Feel like I'm preparing for a tropical storm today.

[bigben89]

A little back end snow event for the ridges. Good news for 7 Springs!

[Momtomany]

3 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

A little back end snow event for the ridges. Good news for 7 Springs!

I’m in the Westmoreland ridges. Currently a winter storm watch. 

[tcari394]

10 hours ago, Wayuphere said:

Last Mondays storm with  2.85” of rain on top of a 6” snowpack caused quite a few washouts. This was the view from the end of my road as the Maine DOT was repairing.  A normal 20 mile drive to Bangor required about 10 miles of detours.  While driving around today we noticed most fields near streams were flooded and ice covered. Snow is all gone now but I’d say 3” or more of rain on Monday will cause a lot of problems.  In my younger days, we would lace up the skates and go “cross country ice skating” when the flooded fields froze up like they currently are. Usually a January thaw event….

The coming wind event is concerning as the tree root systems are “primed” from the rain and lack of frost in the ground and now add a heavy wind plus 2 -4” of more rain…..🤦‍♂️

note to self:  finally just go buy a damn generator.

We used to lose power all the time until we spent 25K on a Generac whole home generator.  We've lost power twice in the 2 years since.  😆

[StretchCT]

Locally 5" of rain. 🏊‍♂️

Hoping it comes during or just after the winds.  We've dried out a bit from last weekend, but it wouldn't take much to sog up the ground and get some uprooting. 

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, tcari394 said:

We used to lose power all the time until we spent 25K on a Generac whole home generator.  We've lost power twice in the 2 years since.  😆

I tried that approach here. I still use my generator at least 2x/year.  Our grid is pretty fragile with all the lines above ground and surrounded by trees. Not to mention less than strategically placed phone polls on windy roads.  

[StretchCT]

Charleston expected to reach major flood stage on the Cooper

Edisto buoy already gusting into the mid 40kts

Frying Pan Shoals at 43kts

[MDBlueridge]

[JDClapper]

16 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

 

[tcari394]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

I tried that approach here. I still use my generator at least 2x/year.  Our grid is pretty fragile with all the lines above ground and surrounded by trees. Not to mention less than strategically placed phone polls on windy roads.  

We have the same setup here.  We're also the last house on the line (power pole is in my front yard), with the closest neighbor a few miles away.  I'm thankful that they have seemingly upgraded our grid, but I would love to leverage our investment at least sometimes!

[ZLearned]

Lots of rain for me but thankfully the mountains do not have much snow so it will keep the flooding to a minimum. Doesn’t seem like winds will be much a problem in northern Vermont either so my Christmas decorations are safe. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by ZLearned

[StretchCT]

Rapid Refresh model has an 80mph gust at Islip.  These models aren't backing down.  It's just the Canadian that pushes these winds to the very eastern CT/LI line.  Most others back them as far west as the NY Metro 

 

[StretchCT]

Euro EFI has an extreme event for Southern New England, nearly all members are tapped out.  Little more uncertainty in the NY Metro area. 

EFI precip is also extreme in the NE

From ECMWF

Experience suggests :

• EFI values between 0.5 to 0.8 (irrespective of sign) can be generally regarded as signifying that unusual weather is likely,
• EFI values above 0.8 (irrespective of sign) as usually signifying that very unusual or extreme weather is likely.
•  

Edited December 17, 2023 by StretchCT