December 17-19, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Storm

[Jaf316]

5 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

I see the Canadian only gives real snow north of the border. Coincidence...?

[snowlover2]

Perfect track for me in Ohio if there was any damn cold air!

[BoroBuckeye]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Perfect track for me in Ohio if there was any damn cold air!

Yeah, that’s a tough one to watch. 😭

[TheRex]

BTV's forecast discussion from this afternoon.  There last quote is:  "Slight shifts in the coastal low track will play a large role in the expected ptype, and if we`re being honest, models won`t resolve this very well until Friday or Saturday when the low in the Gulf develops, so stay tuned!".

Quote

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 403 PM EST Wednesday...Heading into the latter half of the
weekend and into next week our attention turns to a potentially
impactful coastal system for which great uncertainty still remains
within the ensemble and deterministic guidance. Uncertainty this far
out is to be expected, and as is the case with many winter storms,
the forecast boils down to if and when phasing occurs between the
polar jet and low pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico. In
all deterministic solutions this does occur, but there are
significant timing differences, and the ensemble spread of the
subsequent low pressure track is rather high. Very much like our
last winter storm though, the potential exists for precipitation >1"
across the region with progged PWATs upwards of 200% above normal,
but whether it falls as rain or snow is very much uncertain. For
now, using a blended guidance approach, our forecast leans towards
warmer solutions with mainly rain in the valleys and a rain/snow mix
in the higher elevations Sunday night through Monday, changing to
all snow Monday night with upslope snow showers possible on Tuesday.
Slight shifts in the coastal low track will play a large role in the
expected ptype, and if we`re being honest, models won`t resolve this
very well until Friday or Saturday when the low in the Gulf
develops, so stay tuned!

 

[Penn State]

Just putting this out there.. having a rain storm go apps runner at the last minute, not as bad as historic snowstorm going apps runner. Maybe we got lucky.. lol 😂 

[TLChip]

3 hours ago, Eaglesfan82 said:

I hate global warming. We go from 3 La Niñas in a row ( warm winters last 2 ) and now to a strong El Niño and possibly warm. We can’t win . Why couldn’t it have stopped in the middle this year and been neutral 

Even that first La Nina in 21... That's my profile pick, snow on the ground all of feb, iirc that first storm dropped about 20" IMBY. Poconos might have been the big winner from that one. PARD had a huge snowbank pic that year.

[Cdfarabaugh]

Not gonna lie, if this thing bombs out hardcore down south with a good track in late December and not a flake of snow flies I'm gonna go nuts

[snowlover2]

0z NAM shows the northern energy missing the phase but a strong Low still in the south.

[Penn State]

I’m not sure what this means.. but remember when feature #2 was to phase with lead feature #1.. Well, that doesn’t happen here. Plus, feature #3 appears faster. Now.. this would be an all-time comeback if this thing found a way to defy all odds. Nor’Easter to Apps Runner to.. 🤷‍♂️

[Penn State]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

0z NAM shows the northern energy missing the phase but a strong Low still in the south.

lol.. Great minds think alike! 

[snowlover2]

0z RDPS still captures the phase.

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Other than it being too far west for most, this is how you get your big storm.  Surprised it's not deeper though.

Well it does go to 982, but that's before the cold air even gets here.  Wondering how to get a situation where the energy/moisture doesn't escape to the NE so rapidly.  

 

With temps ahead of the storm in NYC at 66°, no chance of a cold air damming situation.

 

It doesn't get super low in pressure because it closes off rather quickly. As for moisture escaping too quickly blocking is needed it acts like a brick wall for a quick escape north.

Im not sure I am buying a close to the coast scenario though. The NAO is rather positive right now and would suggest we get close to cutter territory. I don't think we see any severe weather but with the occlusion we may see quite a bit of rain and a low level jet that cranks winds. Severe weather is probably limited to eastern NC maybe to Richmond area.

Edited December 14, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, Penn State said:

I’m not sure what this means.. but remember when feature #2 was to phase with lead feature #1.. Well, that doesn’t happen here. Plus, feature #3 appears faster. Now.. this would be an all-time comeback if this thing found a way to defy all odds. Nor’Easter to Apps Runner to.. 🤷‍♂️

Wayyyy out there for the NAM but if that type of scenario were to occur there wouldn't be much to bring it up north. Probably wont look at this one again until Friday evening or Saturday 12z but regardless it should be rather fun storm to track. About time we start getting some trackable weather even if it isnt snow. These lulls have been rough.

[bigben89]

The GFS has this thing doing doughnuts out in the Atlantic. Crazy. Unless it's another low that develops?

Edited December 14, 2023 by bigben89

[MaineJay]

Lot of frames(covering 3 days) of the GEFS this morning, as this is quite the protracted event, or should I says events...* obvious, comical wink*

So the southern parcel of energy has been ashor for a couple days already, and it's slowly sauntering eastward.  The northern stream has retreated pretty far north, kinda why the southern energy is so damn slow.  Also why is hard to get the phase, it's actually pretty fortunate that the opportunity even exists.

 Wrap around snow is likey has the highest probability of generating snow.  I'm some ways, similar to the places that were able to see snow last storm.

  The low probability, high potential, is the Christmas miracle either trailing low, or not intriguing and rare, retrograding low.

  I don't care what falls from the sky if we could witness a real obvious storm nice eat to west into the East Coast, and not during tropical season, although a warm core storm *could* be considered some kind of hybrid I guess.

  Anywho, Imma stick with this gif until it wears out it's welcome.

If nothing else, it's something to talk about.  Working in this ain't so bad. *ducks*

 

[MaineJay]

I'll preface this by saying the NAM has been wildly inconsistent with the northern stream feature(s) in the last few runs pertaining to this threat.

 But it's trying to throw an interesting solution leaving the southern parcel way behind, and a minor little clipper like system comes on through, after batting away the southern parcel. Weird run.

[Penn State]

What's with the GFS retrograding the low.. at this pace, it will be lingering while I'm at Ocean City in June of 2024. 

[StretchCT]

0z ukie with another low spawning off the upper low after the primary passes to Lake Ontario.

 

[JDClapper]

Figured I do a Clapper TrackerTM for this one. Here ya go folks.

[WeatherFlash]

12z icon and cmc now showing a mature ULL swinging through on the backend. Icon a little more aggressive with its development. Could be something fun to see. 

[Penn State]

34 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Figured I do a Clapper TrackerTM for this one. Here ya go folks.

I see that we've really zeroed in on a solution here. That troughing in the east has all makings of something special lol 

[Pghsnow]

[bigben89]

1 hour ago, Pghsnow said:

Stamp it!

[Pghsnow]

Last 12 runs of GFS

[MaineJay]

How's this dance gonna come together.