Pghsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Maybe seeing an albino deer this morning is a good sign... White - snow... 3 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) No changes that run. Just look away. #winterscancelled Edited December 13, 2023 by MDBlueridge 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 ICON wraps in some winter but we know it wont happen. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) GFS is awfully close Monday night into Tuesday. Looks like a Vermont special. Edited December 13, 2023 by bigben89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 No differences. 540/trough looks same wait....... ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) NWS just put snow in the forecast for Western MD. theyre wrong. Nothing to see here. Edited December 13, 2023 by MDBlueridge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 13 hours ago, StretchCT said: 1 is a weird possibly tropical surface low. 3 will drop into 2. Those combined (what is circled above) may or may not wrap in 1. For reference 1,2,3,4 outlined above, remember 4 isn't here yet at that time frame but is the trough over Canada that yesterday looked pretty flat. 12z GFS comes in a little different. 2 eats up 1 over the SE. 3 doesn't drop in as quickly but still does. There's a new player between 3 and 4 on the field that doesn't seem to do any steering but provides a little more energy. 4 makes a last minute decision to join the party and extends an arm to the now combined 123. Paying attention to 4, these two frames differ quite dramatically . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 Looking at AI - this is fourcast. The current 0z runs and the prior ones for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 Graphcast is hanging onto the idea that it cuts off, or is slow, and loses its energy ahead. Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 Pangu Trend My question to the teams developing these models is if they claim they are accurate, why is there such variation run to run? Which run is the accurate one? Pangu right now has the most variation for hr 132, with the system going from the GOM this past Sunday's forecast, to off the SE coast on Mondays forecasts and to west of Philly today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 22 hours ago, bigben89 said: It's not going to happen. We never got snow on December 18th or 19th, ever. I'm fully expecting 60 degrees and sunshine. Hell, I might mow the lawn or get the golf clubs out. So follow this advice and you can go golfing while your lawn mows itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Bernie Rayno on board with a storm up the coast. All rain, hardly any mention of snow. Stamp it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: For reference 1,2,3,4 outlined above, remember 4 isn't here yet at that time frame but is the trough over Canada that yesterday looked pretty flat. 12z GFS comes in a little different. 2 eats up 1 over the SE. 3 doesn't drop in as quickly but still does. There's a new player between 3 and 4 on the field that doesn't seem to do any steering but provides a little more energy. 4 makes a last minute decision to join the party and extends an arm to the now combined 123. Paying attention to 4, these two frames differ quite dramatically . The white whale holy grail of them all....the quadruple phaser.... And we now turn to Ollie Williams for the black-u-weather forecast....Ollie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, bigben89 said: Bernie Rayno on board with a storm up the coast. All rain, hardly any mention of snow. Stamp it! Is it the wind shield wiper effect when its rain... 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2023 I know my region of SCPA has been rather dry.. but.. another 3-4" of rain on top of the storm earlier this week, and I feel things will be quite saturated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2023 There's a second shot from the double barrel on the Euro.. Some snow for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) Other than it being too far west for most, this is how you get your big storm. Surprised it's not deeper though. Well it does go to 982, but that's before the cold air even gets here. Wondering how to get a situation where the energy/moisture doesn't escape to the NE so rapidly. With temps ahead of the storm in NYC at 66°, no chance of a cold air damming situation. Edited December 13, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 Lotta qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Other than it being too far west for most, this is how you get your big storm. Surprised it's not deeper though. Well it does go to 982, but that's before the cold air even gets here. Wondering how to get a situation where the energy/moisture doesn't escape to the NE so rapidly. With temps ahead of the storm in NYC at 66°, no chance of a cold air damming situation. Good point. Very well may get stronger as well as setup deform bands. Long way to go. I'll bet she'll rip in cold air as shes leaving, or sits and spins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesfan82 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 4 hours ago, LUCC said: Can't win, warm and wet, global warming. Cold and dry, global warming. 👀 I hate global warming. We go from 3 La Niñas in a row ( warm winters last 2 ) and now to a strong El Niño and possibly warm. We can’t win . Why couldn’t it have stopped in the middle this year and been neutral 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Well, fwiw, 12z EPS has more members entertaining some white in interior PA than the past several days. /shrugs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) Its the icon but even its doing some crazy 500mb swings from the 12z to 18z run.. way more interaction with the northern stream. At least there are pretty 500s to track. Still some time on this one. Edited December 13, 2023 by WeatherFlash 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 40 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Well, fwiw, 12z EPS has more members entertaining some white in interior PA than the past several days. /shrugs Was just about to post for my area. Big jump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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