MDBlueridge Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Penn State said: Euro.. Wasn't great. Wasn't bad. On to 00z.. maybe some magic will manifest itself. lol we are no where near done here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 33 minutes ago, JDClapper said: That L parking off outer banks and then scooting se is classic gfs tomfoolery. Good stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 12, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, 1816 said: That L parking off outer banks and then scooting se is classic gfs tomfoolery. Good stuff. Now that's a good word lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: lol we are no where near done here Whaa...you don't think this is the final solution? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 12, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: lol we are no where near done here You see.. you have me thinking this can happen. This kind of positivity should be struck down lol.. I want no hope. No expectations, no disappointments 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, Penn State said: You see.. you have me thinking this can happen. This kind of positivity should be struck down lol.. I want no hope. No expectations, no disappointments 😂 It's not going to happen. We never got snow on December 18th or 19th, ever. I'm fully expecting 60 degrees and sunshine. Hell, I might mow the lawn or get the golf clubs out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 12, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 12, 2023 Bernie Rayno with a good description on Accuweather's YouTube channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 33 minutes ago, bigben89 said: It's not going to happen. We never got snow on December 18th or 19th, ever. I'm fully expecting 60 degrees and sunshine. Hell, I might mow the lawn or get the golf clubs out. I agree with this. 0 chance. Solution already locked in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 12, 2023 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 12, 2023 Steering currents look weak and chaotic. At least it's not a full moon. But still, a prolonged wind event could still strip a lot of sand. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 12, 2023 Weird look on the Euro. The trough behind this drops down, cuts off over the ocean, then spins and deepens. Sorta looks like it want's to come back to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Just now, StretchCT said: Weird look on the Euro. The trough behind this drops down, cuts off over the ocean, then spins and deepens. Sorta looks like it want's to come back to the coast. stretches into double barrelish setup trough out west looks similar of euro/gfs for a while. sure looks like it wants to run up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Weird look on the Euro. The trough behind this drops down, cuts off over the ocean, then spins and deepens. Sorta looks like it want's to come back to the coast. EPS has it too, and it spins it up and then east harmlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 I can totally Telly that whatever you think it will do will hex it again. I was away for our dusting and I return on Saturday. Probably will be sunny even at 7:00 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 12, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 12, 2023 Some 18z analysis.. So, piece of energy #1 (Red - Continental Jet) emerges into the Midwest. Piece of energy #2 (Green - Polar Jet) drops-in, phases, and amplifies the piece of energy. The Subtropical Jet (Energy in the Gulf) adds some fuel as well.. Piece of energy #3 (Blue - Arctic Jet) remains progressive while crossing Canada, failing to hook-up with the phased pieces of energy #1 and #2. Piece of energy #3 steers the developing storm out to sea. Piece of energy #3 is the key player.. if more amplified, like the Euro and CMC, the storm intensifies and comes up the coast. If more amplified, and further west.. and interacts (phases w/ our little storm), then someone is going to be more white than wet. What I would ask the more seasoned folks on the forum is.. Is there room to the west? What is needed to make piece of energy #3 sharper? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZLearned Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 We need a Christmas miracle for this to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2023 12 hours ago, MDBlueridge said: Euro sheds 25+ mb's in less than 24 hours as it rides up the coast but makes/draws no cold air on NW side in December? well see. Yea just no cold into even much of southern Canada. It is possible enough cold air could be generated to allow the higher peaks in WV/MD to get some snow and depending on how broad the low is same would happen in VT/NH region. Got to chat with a colleague last night (almost never work with him anymore) and he mentioned this storm as a potential analog. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor'easter This was sandwiched between two epic storms (perfect storm and the super storm) but it caused a lot of damage and destruction as it sat over the area for about 2 days. It is not perfect but a somewhat similar setup (maybe further south) could happen with this. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2023 Great analysis by @so_whats_happening! Here’s a video on that December ‘92 storm.. credit to the Weather Channel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Penn State said: Some 18z analysis.. So, piece of energy #1 (Red - Continental Jet) emerges into the Midwest. Piece of energy #2 (Green - Polar Jet) drops-in, phases, and amplifies the piece of energy. The Subtropical Jet (Energy in the Gulf) adds some fuel as well.. Piece of energy #3 (Blue - Arctic Jet) remains progressive while crossing Canada, failing to hook-up with the phased pieces of energy #1 and #2. Piece of energy #3 steers the developing storm out to sea. Piece of energy #3 is the key player.. if more amplified, like the Euro and CMC, the storm intensifies and comes up the coast. If more amplified, and further west.. and interacts (phases w/ our little storm), then someone is going to be more white than wet. What I would ask the more seasoned folks on the forum is.. Is there room to the west? What is needed to make piece of energy #3 sharper? 1 is a weird possibly tropical surface low. 3 will drop into 2. Those combined (what is circled above) may or may not wrap in 1. That leaves your question, which is what we all need to wait to see. 4, up by Alaska plays into where this goes. In your frame, the GFS has it staying north and actually not really affecting it all that much. The 18z GFS just stalls out the combo 1,2,3 and it meanders around Mon-Thurs before opening up into a wave. Earlier, it was much further south, and deeper on the CMC/Euro. The energy for this now has to be over the pacific somewhere. 2 is onshore already, 3 hits Thursday up by Vancouver. 4 Doesn't hit until Saturday. These are all on the GFS. We need 4 to slow down a little. Euro was slower. Euro has it further west by the Aleutians (sp?). Note this is the 12z which wasn't as dynamic as the 0z cause 3 missed 2. 2 and 1 didn't consolidate and 4 ends up steering 1 up the coast and 2 is left behind. There's a lot that can go wrong here, but... there's also a lot that could go right (for a storm, not snow though). There's basically 4 systems, one has to hit. There's a lot of talk about storms generating their own cold. This comes about with rapid ascent, a lot of evaporation, and getting the colder air at 700mb+ into the storm. Someone else can explain it more/better. The problem is the 700 temps are too close to 0c , so we would need all 4 and a very rapid forming storm, even faster and deeper than what the Euro showed this morning. Or for the models to be wrong about temps. Edited December 13, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 13, 2023 Good golly Miss Molly, I was just thinking how I could use another 3" rain storm. I feel like we have at least a half dozen events with 3" type totals this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Good golly Miss Molly, I was just thinking how I could use another 3" rain storm. I feel like we have at least a half dozen events with 3" type totals this year. 2023 will be on pace to be the driest year since 1995 in Pittsburgh. So I guess this may be a little catching up? Is MJO 7 still on track to be here after Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, bigben89 said: 2023 will be on pace to be the driest year since 1995 in Pittsburgh. So I guess this may be a little catching up? Is MJO 7 still on track to be here after Christmas? With caveats. Quote The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains active, having propagated eastward from the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent since late November. RMM observations currently place the MJO signal in phase 6, and upper-level velocity potential anomaly fields show the MJO has already begun to constructively interfere with the low frequency El Nino base state. Since last week, the GEFS, CFS and ECMWF based RMM forecasts have trended towards favoring a potentially slower and weakened MJO signal over the western Pacific. Any disorganization of the MJO may be short-lived, as this predicted behavior in RMM space appears to be at least in part due to convectively coupled Kelvin wave activity destructively interfering with the suppressed phase of the MJO over the Indian Ocean. The competing tropical variability is supported in the objectively filtered velocity potential anomaly and OLR forecasts, which depict a secondary envelope of anomalous divergence aloft and enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean mainly north of the equator. Such a scenario would explain a loss of signal projected along the RMM2 axis (falling within the RMM unit circle) in the medium range. Beyond this time frame, forecasts depict a more coherent signal emerging with the main convective envelope propagating eastward across the Western Hemisphere through the end of December, and possibly returning to the Indian Ocean by early 2024, though there is good deal of uncertainty in regards to the strength of the MJO at this lead. With the ongoing constructive interference between the MJO and El Nino, the return of anomalous lower-level westerlies are favored throughout the equatorial Pacific, with the added potential for wind burst activity along and near the Date Line which is likely to reinforce an already strong base state. Farther west, the enhanced trades over the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) are favored to relax, but are still expected to remain a prominent fixture in the coming weeks. For the extratropics, eastward propagating western Pacific and Western Hemisphere MJO events historically favor the development of anomalous mid-level troughing and colder temperatures over the CONUS. However this is at odds with the model guidance for weeks 2 and 3 which instead favors stout mean ridging centered over southern Canada and elevated chances for above-normal temperatures overspreading much of North America. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2023 5 hours ago, MaineJay said: Good golly Miss Molly, I was just thinking how I could use another 3" rain storm. I feel like we have at least a half dozen events with 3" type totals this year. If I'm remembering correctly, Hartford needs 2.5" of rain to make it into the top five for most precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, StretchCT said: If I'm remembering correctly, Hartford needs 2.5" of rain to make it into the top five for most precip. Can't win, warm and wet, global warming. Cold and dry, global warming. 👀 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 This hurts my heart to see a track like this in winter be rain... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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