Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2023 EPS improved. This is slightly before the storm, but you can see a much better Western ridge signal now, and some semblance of troffing near Hudson Bay. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 hours ago, MaineJay said: Need that lobe in Hudson Bay to rotate further south and really dig in. It's more encouraging seeing a little window for Arctic involvement. Only a possibility, but better then it not being possible. Appears arctic inolvement happening on 18z GFS. It's bombing out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2023 I finally had an opportunity to look over the 12z and 18z runs today.. First takeaway, the ECMWF and GDPS were rough lol.. Sure hope this doesn’t become a cutter. Second takeaway, the 18z GFS was close to mixing in the arctic injection from the NW. Just a little late. Storm signal remains.. which is good. Hopefully the narrative becomes more white than wet. As @so_whats_happening said earlier, hope we get this look in January and February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2023 Also.. in terms of the ensembles.. what’s with the GEFS? Further to the SE than the EPS and CMCE. The EPS looked the best to me. I think the theme is.. there’s a long way to go and a lot to be decided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2023 Euro was late.. but late enough that it almost caught an injection of cold air. The cutoff down south just meanders for quite some time. Long way to go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 hours ago, Penn State said: Euro was late.. but late enough that it almost caught an injection of cold air. The cutoff down south just meanders for quite some time. Long way to go here. Northern stream. There appears to be two impulses that *could* catch it, but they are just ships passing in the night on this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2023 Man.. what a waste. Hope that northern branch can find a way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 11, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 11, 2023 Honestly.. a number of signs are pointing in the wrong direction. The Pacific Jet and +EPO just doesn’t want to unlock the arctic air. The MJO looks to be stalling. So, this is probably not going to be anything special. With that being said, 00z GFS was a little closer with the cold air injection. It’s not enough.. too little, too late. Here’s the last few runs of the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 @Penn State Don't give up on this one just yet. Now that this last storm is out of the way lets see if Northern stream wants to play ball. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 hour ago, MDBlueridge said: @Penn State Don't give up on this one just yet. Now that this last storm is out of the way lets see if Northern stream wants to play ball. All. That. Energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 12z GFS appears to have a quicker phase while still in the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 CMC also brings back the storm. Too bad neither has cold available. So it's all rain for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 11, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: CMC also brings back the storm. Too bad neither has cold available. So it's all rain for both. For now at least.. FWIW, it's not as far apart as one would think. You can see it on the 500mb.. I imagine if the energy in Canada would dig some more, that's all that would be necessary to deliver enough cold for at least higher elevations. Even if you look at the 2m temps.. it's like mid-30s. Wouldn't that just be awful though.. sitting a few degrees from freezing watching 2-3" of liquid precip that could have been snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Penn State said: For now at least.. FWIW, it's not as far apart as one would think. You can see it on the 500mb.. I imagine if the energy in Canada would dig some more, that's all that would be necessary to deliver enough cold for at least higher elevations. Even if you look at the 2m temps.. it's like mid-30s. Wouldn't that just be awful though.. sitting a few degrees from freezing watching 2-3" of liquid precip that could have been snow. There have been far larger leaps than this in model land in 7 days.... Edited December 11, 2023 by MDBlueridge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 I'll just leave this here.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 11, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 11, 2023 Well.. the cold air got there.. but the storm was too far E. Big storms come NW? *Shrugs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Just now, Penn State said: Well.. the cold air got there.. but the storm was too far E. Big storms come NW? *Shrugs* 7 days my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 11, 2023 Looking at the AI models over at the ECMWF page. Pangu takes the low through FL, then stalls it off the coast and weakens it Graphcast puts it into Maritimes Fourcast stalls it like Pangu. I'm guessing these just go out to sea. AIFS brings it the closest and also hits the Maritimes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: I'll just leave this here.... Wow, do you have the 0z run, or yesterday's 12z, for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 11, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 11, 2023 Love him or hate him.. A thought.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Thanks. Big baby steps. 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 One step forward, 12Z 3 steps backwards...18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 18z, throw it out. 👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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