JDClapper Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Speaking of probabilities. 15z SREF just in. Here's chance of 1"+ trend, and mean 10:1 snowfall trend, from 7pm Sun - 7pm Mon. Honing in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Man the euro has been consistent. You ain't kidding. Since 0z Thur 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 For posterity .. GFS (0/12z only) and CMC for the same time range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Here are some short term models That top left nam is insane in the membrane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 9, 2023 48 minutes ago, JDClapper said: You ain't kidding. Since 0z Thur nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I wanted to put this here just in case I can't get the older data once the storm is done. This is the Euro AI model @MaineJay gave the links to in the fall so I've been watching it. This is a snow depth map and it will be interesting to see if there is accumulating snow as widespread as the second map. Quote Euro AI from Tuesday Dec 5 12Z Run Euro AI from Wed Dec 6 00Z Run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Unless you're on I-81, Nambino is quite hoppy. Looks like 3K stayed steady though. Not every model can be the one, the only, King Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2023 WPC Heavy snow and icing disco Quote Central Appalachians through the Interior Northeast... Day 2... Multi-stream positively-tilted trough over the Midwest-to-southern Plains on Sunday will transition to neutral then negative tilt by Monday morning over the East Coast in concert with an increasingly buckled S-shaped upper jet over southeastern Canada. Slowing surface front on Sunday will spur a wave in the Mid-Atlantic that lifts north-northeastward across southeastern New England early Monday in the RRQ of the 130kt jet, promoting deepening thereafter into eastern Maine and into Quebec that afternoon. Strong CAA behind the front amid a sufficiently moist column will turn rain to snow from west to east over the central Appalachians into NYS late Sunday into Monday, especially in elevations above 500-1000ft (and NW of I-95). Strong NW-tilted FGEN band from NEPA into northern New England will support snow rates >1"/hr as the rain changes to heavy, wet snow (high snow load) especially from the Catskills into the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. There, WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are high (>70%) and for at least 8 inches are moderate (30-70%). Low probabilities (10-40%) extend farther east into northwestern Maine, southward into the Berkshires, and westward back through much of central NY and northeastern PA. Though the system will be progressive despite the negative tilt, minor fluctuations in the track of the front/low, speed of incoming cold air (rate of changeover), and precipitation focus may lead to large changes in the snowfall amounts. Lake effect snow off Erie and especially Ontario will persist on Monday with additional accumulation in the Tug Hill. Farther south, higher elevations of the central Appalachians will a changeover sooner, and a heavy/wet snow will also accumulate several inches before ending on Monday. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are moderate (40-70%) over eastern WV into western MD with slightly lower probabilities into the Blue Ridge. Both areas have a larger than normal upside potential depending on how quickly rain can change to snow in light of available QPF. Fracasso 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Most recent CTP forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Don't usually see HRRR make the ridges this pronounced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZLearned Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Just removed the Flood Watch and upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in BTV. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM ESTMONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches, with localized 10 to 16 inches across the central and northern Green Mountains of Vermont. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Central and northern Vermont, as well as the Northeast Kingdom and northern portions of the Champlain Valley. * WHEN...From 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult, especially during the Monday morning commute. Scattered to widespread power outages are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain overnight Sunday is expected to change over to heavy, wet snow during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Snowfall rates on Monday morning could exceed 1 inch per hour. Furthermore, gusty northwest winds 25 to 35 mph could produce additional power outages on Monday afternoon into Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please allow extra time if travel is necessary. && 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 RGEM still not buying into what NAM is selling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted December 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2023 A sharp gradient between piles of snow and torrential rain. Looks like we're going to see ~ 2.5" and all the snow will melt. Then 1" of snow on the backside. Yay! Flood Watch National Weather Service Caribou ME 340 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 MEZ002-004-101000- /O.EXA.KCAR.FA.A.0009.231211T0600Z-231212T1200Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northeast Aroostook-Northern Piscataquis- Including the cities of Van Buren, Churchill Dam, Chamberlain Lake, Mount Katahdin, Ashland, Baxter St Park, Mars Hill, Caribou, and Presque Isle 340 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of Far Northern and North Woods Maine, including the following areas, in Far Northern Maine, Northeast Aroostook. In North Woods Maine, Northern Piscataquis. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of small rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Heavy rainfall and warm temperatures will melt most, if not all, existing snowpack. The heavy rainfall, snowmelt, and high rainfall rates over a partially frozen ground will create a scenario promoting small stream, creek and river flooding. - For flood safety tips visit http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Now I am down in Edisto SC. But I a watching my home area. Even amazed LWX (Sterling) talk about rain snow mix happening. Quote Sunday Night Rain before 4am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. The rain could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 34. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Monday Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow before 7am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 47. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Euro has definitely ticked towards the NAM/GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 SREF, including 21z. 7pm Sun-7pm Mon .. 1"+ prob trends, snow mean, and 4"+ prob trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: SREF, including 21z. 7pm Sun-7pm Mon .. 1"+ prob trends, snow mean, and 4"+ prob trend SE trend is undeniable model wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 NAm changes over WNJ earlier should he a better run for all SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 Watching the model snow line trend... I was just looking at the HRRR via FlowX (which I would highly recommend) and that moisture train is ridiculous. Almost like something you would see in the pacific northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Lastest SREF mean added an inch over the previous maximum from last night after trending down all day. We are back on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2023 When I was a kid, I remember a storm where it was supposed to be all rain.. then in the morning, we had several inches of snow. Every once in a while there’s a surprise. History tells me that I should expect very little with this.. but because it involves a deepening coastal low.. I have a feeling there will be some surprises. I really look forward to the nowcasting portion of tomorrow. The good news.. definitely looks like someone on this forum will cash-in come Monday morning, and that’s awesome! 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 3k and Hrrr seeming more consistent. Coastal definitely deepening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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