December 10-12, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[PA road DAWG]

Well hello friends 

[Weathertop]

Not in the NAM’s “wheelhouse” yet, but… wut wut!
Never gonna happen, though.(reverse whammy for the mythical eastern APPS backend snows)

 

[Weathertop]

NAM still showing backend snow possiblities but east of APPS is a little less impressive since last night’s run. Not surprised if this trend continues. That is typical for our area in the valleys east of mountains.

Edit: Amounts a bit more impressive from Poconos up into New York, though.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Weathertop

[MaineJay]

7 minutes ago, Weathertop said:

NAM still showing backend snow possiblities but east of APPS is a little less impressive since last night’s run. Not surprised if this trend continues. That is typical for our area in the valleys east of mountains.

Edit: Amounts more impressive up into New York, though.

When the winds swing around, it looks like a bunch of streamers might come off the lakes.  While it's not directly part of the overall synoptic system, some nice squalls could white the ground in western PA, and especially on western facing slopes and ridges.

 The mesos hopefully will show this as they come more into range.

[JDClapper]

CTPs first stab. Transition timing on the eastern side I feel is a little slow. Things have happened hours sooner than modelled and forecasted many times this fall. Maybe this is the one that happens slow, but I'll side with the winning team so far.

Noticing a nice little wrap around feature on NAM and RGEM in Central to NEPA Monday morning too, perhaps providing additional surprises for someone down this way.

 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by JDClapper

[Mainiac]

I have the weather channel on in the background and heard Jim Cantore metion the GFS is projecting up to 24" in northern Vermont. Stephanie Abrams immediately throws major shade on the GFS model's snow projections and Jim admits, "It's little wish casting".

I'm going to have to keep watching as he could easily throw in the towel next run and declare winter over. 

[MDBlueridge]

3K Nam should be fun to watch. Has been a good precip type barometer down here for years. 

Still wont happen. 

But enjoyable to watch. 

 

 

[JDClapper]

25 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

I have the weather channel on in the background and heard Jim Cantore metion the GFS is projecting up to 24" in northern Vermont. Stephanie Abrams immediately throws major shade on the GFS model's snow projections and Jim admits, "It's little wish casting".

I'm going to have to keep watching as he could easily throw in the towel next run and declare winter over. 

I was watching that too! Hilarious haha

[Penn State]

I certainly like what the NAM is trying to do.. the snowfall it shows is more than in any one storm from last year for me. I'll take it.. but it's most definitely not going to happen. 😁

[bigben89]

52 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I certainly like what the NAM is trying to do.. the snowfall it shows is more than in any one storm from last year for me. I'll take it.. but it's most definitely not going to happen. 😁

Just like the Patriots are going to beat the Squeelers. It's not going to happen...

[TheRex]

BTV's forecast discussion talks about heavy wet elevation dependent snow and the possibility of power outages.  The last storm that went through knocked out power also.  A slushy mess is expected for the valley areas.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 359 AM EST Friday...Saturday night`s weather is relatively
quiet compared to what is in store for the region later Sunday into
Monday. Overnight lows on Saturday stay rather mild with continued
warm air advection. Aside from a few scattered rain showers, most of
the rain will come after daybreak on Sunday, especially into Sunday
afternoon as a strong storm system approaches the Northeast US.
Initially, the H5 trough is positively tilted with a weak low
pressure developing near the St Lawrence valley. Temperatures on
Sunday afternoon will be unseasonably mild in the mid 40s to low
50s. Southerly winds will also make for a breezy, if not blustery
day with wind-driven rain. Expect 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain to fall
by early Sunday evening. With dew points surging into the 40s, there
will be rather significant snowmelt leading to the loss of snowpack.
The combination of rainfall and snowmelt runoff will eventually lead
to area river rises by Sunday night into Monday. More details in the
hydrology discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 359 AM EST Friday...Model guidance has come into better
consensus that a coastal low would develop over the Mid Atlantic and
track over central/eastern MA overnight Sunday into Monday morning,
before deepening as it lifts northeastwards into Maine. Individual
members of the 00z GFS and ECMWF are now showing remarkable
consistency and clustering considering we are still over 72 hours
out. While the overall upper level flow is still fairly progressive
with a neutral to slightly positive NAO regime, models are
indicating that the H5 trough does go negatively tilted for a time,
greatly increasing the odds of colder air arriving in time for a 6
to 12 hour window of heavy, wet snow. While the threat for pre-
frontal strong to damaging winds has diminished, concern is
increasing for 35 to 40 mph post-front northwest winds leading to
power outage concerns due to snow loading. Expect the sub-freezing
925mb isotherm to approach Champlain valley by the pre-dawn hours on
Monday before sweeping across our entire CWA by early Monday
afternoon. Expect surface temperatures to fall into the 32-34 range
for points along and west of the Adirondacks through the pre-dawn
hours, and then for areas east of the immediate Champlain Valley by
the morning commute.

Temperatures are expected to remain constant or fall slightly during
the day as strong cold air advection continues, with 925mb
temperatures falling to -6 to -8C range regionwide by sundown. Still
thinking that the immediate Champlain valley could see a slushy inch
or two of wet snow due to wet bulbing but temperatures should hold
steady at 33-36 for locations like Burlington. On the other hand,
locations along the spine of the Greens and the Adirondacks would be
cold enough for most of the precipitation to fall as heavy, wet snow
for most of Monday. With upwards of 1.5 inches of QPF and with a 8:1
SLR, jackpot locations could see in excess of over a foot of snow.
Generally locations at or above 1000 ft could expect 6-12 inches of
heavy, wet snow, with 500-1000 ft seeing 3-6 inches of snow and 1-3
inches for the broader valleys below 500 ft.

In a nutshell, this is an elevation dependent storm in terms of
wintry impacts. A silver lining is that given the thermal profiles,
mixed precipitation is unlikely, outside of a brief period of sleet
when the rain changes over to snow. By Monday late afternoon into
evening, as the low pressure center lifts further north and east
into northern Maine and maritime Canada, stratiform precipitation
will quickly come to an end across northern NY and then VT,
transitioning into upslope snow showers. But as mentioned earlier,
with heavy wet snow clinging onto the trees and continued northwest
gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, expect lingering power outages and
difficult recovery efforts by utility crew.

 

[MDBlueridge]

Good run to run consistency by the NAM lol

Shoves all precip ahead of cold this run which is likely the outcome

[bigben89]

I'd like to see this for SWPA ski-country, but it won't happen because it will be all rain and 60-degrees.

Edited December 8, 2023 by bigben89

[bigben89]

Sidebar.... Are there a lot of users from wxdisco here since their server went/is going off line?

[JDClapper]

6 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Good run to run consistency by the NAM lol

Shoves all precip ahead of cold this run which is likely the outcome

Keep this up and east of I95 will be in play by 18z! lol

[JDClapper]

[Weathertop]

12z NAM run

I look at any snow south of I-80 for SC or SE PA in December as a bonus, so this latest model run does not surprise me.

On a positive note, it should help put a dent in drought conditions.

[LUCC]

45 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

Sidebar.... Are there a lot of users from wxdisco here since their server went/is going off line?

I'm here because it's no longer a free site, I can't afford to pay for a weather forum. 

[telejunkie]

Time to fire up the generator....make sure it's running smoothly. This is looking like it may get ugly if 12z NAM is onto something....

Edited December 8, 2023 by telejunkie

[TLChip]

It’s not happening, I shouldn’t even post this long range NAM trend. 

 

I should pull my weather station and pull out the leaves that have my rain gauge clogged, lots of QPF to be measured. 😅

 

 

P.S welcome to the sphere for the newer members! Haven’t been to disco since last year, sad to hear they’re forcing people to sub now. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by TLChip

[Snowadelphia]

2 hours ago, LUCC said:

I'm here because it's no longer a free site, I can't afford to pay for a weather forum. 

I've been wanting to make the switch for awhile. Finally did it today. The place was really going off the rails.

[Pghsnow]

[telejunkie]

GFS going all in....Kuchera rates looking like maybe 8:1 ratio in this area...

Good old Honda generator...two pulls and she was purring like a kitten despite being 35 years old. It may weight 200 lbs., but it's an awesome engine...back when they were still built in Japan.

Edited December 8, 2023 by telejunkie

[Blizz]

Hope everyone and their families have been doing well. Glad to be back for another year. This event appears to be getting a bit more intriguing for my area in NEPA. We'll see! 

Happy Friday and weekend all

[RobB]

18 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

GFS going all in....Kuchera rates looking like maybe 8:1 ratio in this area...

Good old Honda generator...two pulls and she was purring like a kitten despite being 35 years old. It may weight 200 lbs., but it's an awesome engine...back when they were still built in Japan.

For the sake of the White Christmas movie.  Hope Vermont can score 🙂