December 10-12, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[TLChip]

Maybe some white rain on the tail end at best. It's a good thing we all know its not possible.

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

[JDClapper]

Just now, Pghsnow said:

Euro, you so crazy.  I think I wanna have your baby.

Another 90s flashback.. anyone?? 😄 

[MDBlueridge]

3 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Euro, you so crazy.  I think I wanna have your baby.

Another 90s flashback.. anyone?? 😄 

[MaineJay]

3 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

If things can keep inching, some folks might catch a break.  Get that low near James bay to scoot a bit farther east, slow down that southern end.  The "trend" could reverse, but 3+ days gives a glimmer for some.  

  Just to be clear, east of the Appalachian are most likely shut out, but from the ridges west, worth watching, in my humble opinion.

[JDClapper]

For shiggles, LR 0z NAM.  Western ridging slightly better, plus slightly slower & deeper trough

 

[so_whats_happening]

Wonder if we will get a squall line down this way. 

[Wtkidz]

 I am just happy that it hits after I get down Edisto SC.  Poor wife and other two sons will be the ones to deal with the rain… 

[MaineJay]

6z GEFS. Still 3+ days out, and some meaningful differences in there.

[MDBlueridge]

NWS echoing @MaineJay thoughts. Still impossible. All these years and it still shocks me how much faster locales above 1500' in the central apps cool than the valleys. Not a tremendous amount of elevation, but always such a disparity. 

Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday
afternoon in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from
northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper-
level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours
or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal
characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, there may be a few hour
period of rain or rain changing to snow behind the cold front before
drier air eventually works its way in overnight. The best chance for
accumulating snow will be along the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge and
Allegheny/Potomac Highlands where cold air will move in sooner. For
locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope
component to the low-level flow will cause additional snow showers
to last longer behind the cold front, enhancing potential for
accumulating snow.

Edited December 7, 2023 by MDBlueridge

[MDBlueridge]

Would love to see mesos take if we stay on this track. 

[JDClapper]

18 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Would love to see mesos take if we stay on this track. 

Yeah, I'm eagerly awaiting this to get into the NAM long range, just to get a tiny feel.. rain, cold front, done.. or, just maybe?

[MDBlueridge]

14 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Yeah, I'm eagerly awaiting this to get into the NAM long range, just to get a tiny feel.. rain, done...

fixed. 

 

[MaineJay]

Sref low "clusters".

850mb 0°C isotherm.

[Penn State]

According to the NAM.. I'm 61 degrees at 7p on Sunday in Franklin County. It's 33 degrees in Somerset County. The front is crossing Bedford and Fulton Counties (which are in between Somerset and Franklin). Nope. That's a lot to accomplish in a short time frame.

[JDClapper]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

According to the NAM.. I'm 61 degrees at 7p on Sunday in Franklin County. It's 33 degrees in Somerset County. The front is crossing Bedford and Fulton Counties (which are in between Somerset and Franklin). Nope. That's a lot to accomplish in a short time frame.

Furtunately, we mostly knew this would happen. 🙂 So all is right in the world. 😬

[MDBlueridge]

GFS/CMC flip flop GFS cold slower, CMC quicker

timing differences abound

no way snow happens

[TLChip]

This is just filling our rain gauges. 🤣

 

anyone else notice the activity later in the gfs? Last night I saw a few waves near the coast… always hope 2 weeks out. 😅

[JDClapper]

Well, 12z EPS has ~40% chance of 1"+ here in the interior, plus the op run. Mean is over 1" too. 🤷‍♂️

[Pghsnow]

[JDClapper]

9 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Battle Royale

[Pghsnow]

[so_whats_happening]

Central to upstate New York looks to be the winner with this one but northern PA (north of state college) to about the Scranton area stand a chance at some changeover, maybe a minor coating. Elevation stands a better chance of accumulation as usual. I guess I should also include the areas of western MD and areas of WVA they always have that weird setup where the warm air skirts them just enough.

Remember you want around -2C and colder at 850mb to really get that snow chance with changeovers so don't look at where the 0C line is. Wish we had velocities but frontogenesis will suffice enough. I mean it is even possible to see some snow mixed in down to my way if we can hold onto moisture just long enough.

If only there  would be a quicker developing storm. 

[so_whats_happening]

Not much in the way of CAPE, not even seeing like 100 Joules worth, so speed shear will be the main thing to watch for any convective potential. Winds certainly will be quite strong ahead of the front with a SE to S flow across the Mid Atlantic. I really wouldn't be surprised to see mid to upper 60's in spots across VA/MD/ SE PA/ DE/ SNJ region if anything has been a consistent factor it is that we can spike in temps more than shown. Sure would be cool to get another squall situation across the Mid Atlantic into maybe SNE. Not much capping even ahead of the line so it is possible we can mix those 30-40knot winds at around 925mb to the surface.