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December 10-12, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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One cool observation.. We were driving from Franklin County into Fulton County in SCPA. In the valley.. 41F, On the mountain (2,300 ft.) in between, 54F. Always fun when that’s inverted. Got to teach my daughter a little weather lesson this morning 🤓

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27 minutes ago, Penn State said:

One cool observation.. We were driving from Franklin County into Fulton County in SCPA. In the valley.. 41F, On the mountain (2,300 ft.) in between, 54F. Always fun when that’s inverted. Got to teach my daughter a little weather lesson this morning 🤓

I drive a route truck for frito lay and where I go , I go up a big mountain everyday and I always think it is neat when on a clear morning ( I start at 3 am ) the base of the mountain is like 25 and it’s like 38-40 at the top 

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23 minutes ago, Penn State said:

On that 12z.. I got the opposite of being NAM’d lol.. I got a magic show. Poof! 
 

And FV3 went hard west. 

It's now cast now. I've looked for consistency in short rangers. Not there. Gotta know your back yard and wait to see what coastal does. Looks impressive down south. My gut, some ridges in Central apps get pasted. Sterling is hedging their bets with max map. They know how delicate this game is. 

 

Screenshot_20231210_083543_Chrome.jpg

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An hour difference in timing either way on temps, how hard the precip is, how much moisture is thrown back into the sub freezing air. Strength of the low, track of the low, when the base of the trof goes negative..  So many variables that then effect each other with this set up.

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5 minutes ago, Eaglesfan82 said:

Man , in January, that is a great track for me in central PA 

The best storm tracks for this area track just "inside" the 40º/70º benchmark, and I am helped somewhat by my elevation and location (Berkshire's eastern slopes).

Tractor's ready if needed.

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WWA Schuylkill County, will it march further down?

Winter Weather Advisory
Issued: 11:07 AM Dec. 10, 2023 – National Weather Service

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
in the valleys and 3 to 5 inches in the surrounding higher
elevations above 1500 feet. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Sullivan, Columbia and Schuylkill Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially on
bridges, overpasses, and untreated or secondary roads. The
hazardous conditions may impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to wet snow from the
hilltops down into the valleys late this evening into early
tonight. The heaviest snow will occur overnight into the predawn
and morning commute hours as temperatures fall into the low
30s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

 

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Temperatures ~8 degrees colder than forecasted and steadily falling according to my PWS.  Sitting on top of a ridge ~1600ft in Tioga County, PA.  No advisories or warnings yet for our area, but things could get interesting.

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4 minutes ago, tcari394 said:

Temperatures ~8 degrees colder than forecasted and steadily falling according to my PWS.  Sitting on top of a ridge ~1600ft in Tioga County, PA.  No advisories or warnings yet for our area, but things could get interesting.

Warming up down here. Waiting for that wind shift, she's a comin'.

 

Screenshot_20231210-115046_Chrome.jpg

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Going into obs mode: Temp topped at 60F, but rain has commenced and temps have fallen to 55F.

Short range models 12z runs certainly tempering my expectations as most slashed totals at least in half. MJ, you're certainly spot on...tons of variables at play here and a very marginal setup.

Screenshot 2023-12-10 at 12.09.06 PM.png

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1 hour ago, jbrumberg said:

Not  an ideal track for a decent snow event around here.

We'll see.

lowtrack_ensembles.gif

lowtrack_circles.gif

It keeps going east! Lastest SREFs  I'm seeing 2.7" total with 3"-4" of that snow - which is up from no snow and 1" of snow.

Up here, a Bay of Fundy path is the jackpot. 

Edit: Enjoy the snow for the lucky ones. I'll probably see a little but by then you guys will be on to the next white whale.  🙂

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I still remember the 30" I received during the 2023 Mid-March snow event.  Elevation, location, timing and phasing, and storm track all came together with that event.  That event kind of "tempered" my snow mania for this Season.

A cloudy, foggy, rainy 48ºF here ATM.

 

IMG_3496.jpeg

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Wow, the discussion out of Upton calls for a potential of  5-6 inches across SE CT

Spoiler
 OF RAIN!!!!!!

The heavy rain potential comes from a
developing strong low level jet combining with deep synoptic
lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass. Some models
continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift,
will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Models
continue to favor eastern areas for the higher total rain
amounts, as the llj will be stronger here, and
forcing/convergence near the deepening low center will be
passing through or nearby. Further enhancement may occur in
parts of CT due to speed convergence on a southerly flow. Latest
00z Hi-res guidance seems to be picking up on this potential,
with HREF values now forecasting the potential for as much as
5-7 inches possible across portions of SE CT. The flood watch
remains up for the entire CWA and has been extended to include
much of Monday morning and early afternoon. See the hydrology
section below for more details.

 

Edited by StretchCT
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