CandO100 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 MDBlueridge called it earlier when he mentioned that for folks below PA Turnpike to find a hill over 1500’. NWS forecasting potential for over 5” in parts of Blue Ridge mountains in Va. No one knows elevation snow in Blue Ridge area like our guy MDB. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Def trending snowier for the interior spots. Let’s go ! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 10, 2023 I haven't come back from a night at the bar (work) and looked at weather in a while....tonight was that time. Probably already mentioned, but WS Warning has been hoisted...it's been a cold, snowy November into December....yet yielding only small events (<2")...looks like we may finally have a legit event. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 244 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 VTZ009-011-020-101000- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0008.231211T0300Z-231212T0000Z/ Western Addison-Western Rutland-Western Windsor- Including the cities of Middlebury, Vergennes, Fair Haven, Rutland, Bethel, and Ludlow 244 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Western Addison, Western Rutland and Western Windsor Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult, especially during the Monday morning commute. Scattered power outages are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain overnight Sunday is expected to change over to heavy, wet snow during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Snowfall rates on Monday morning could exceed 1 inch per hour. Furthermore, gusty northwest winds 25 to 35 mph could produce additional power outages on Monday afternoon into Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please allow extra time if travel is necessary. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Hoping for WWA at least by tomorrow AM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: Hoping for WWA at least by tomorrow AM Good luck PaRD! Although can be bittersweet in that work duties keep you (us) on the sidelines... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2023 My money is on the Euro. Bet. (As the kids say.. 😂) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2023 Also.. I just want to note this. As an observation.. I’m at 35F. That’s well below my forecasted temperature, which earlier tonight was supposed to be almost 50F. It was predicted to rise.. from 38F earlier. This will have no bearing on tomorrow.. at least I don’t think so, but it’s been noted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 6 hours ago, CandO100 said: MDBlueridge called it earlier when he mentioned that for folks below PA Turnpike to find a hill over 1500’. NWS forecasting potential for over 5” in parts of Blue Ridge mountains in Va. No one knows elevation snow in Blue Ridge area like our guy MDB. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 hours ago, Penn State said: My money is on the Euro. Bet. (As the kids say.. 😂) Euro gets a little friskier.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 9 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Euro has definitely ticked towards the NAM/GFS. Which NAM run? it's been wildly inconsistent, particularly the 3km. It's eventually replacement, the FV3 is even worse though. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 Nice baroclinic leaf there. How, when and magnitude of the trof base swinging negative has meaningful consequences. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 7 hours ago, CandO100 said: MDBlueridge called it earlier when he mentioned that for folks below PA Turnpike to find a hill over 1500’. NWS forecasting potential for over 5” in parts of Blue Ridge mountains in Va. No one knows elevation snow in Blue Ridge area like our guy MDB. It's almost like I've lived here all my life lol I think NWS is light on their guess on several ridges but we'll find out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 (edited) NAM is impressive this morning, HRW's keeping my hopes in check. Edited December 10, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 My metars bookmark is broken, so in my search, I found the aviation weather site. I wish they was a way to easily get gifs from there, my superficial first looks haven't found an easy way. Anywho, it's got a pretty slick setup up, lots of good information all in one view. https://aviationweather.gov/gfa/ It's also got a way to show temp profile cross sections on plane routes. Here's IND to IAD. I'm assuming they the ft. is in hundreds. So 60 would be just over a mile, and we can very roughly use that as our 850mb temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 CTP doesn't believe it will snow much from Williamsport south. And not much more to the north either. Updated at 4:30am today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 SREF trends, including 9z .. probs for 1"+ and 4"+, and snow mean. 7pm Sun-7pm Mon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 It is raining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 Impressive convection in the deep south. Almost looks like a rotating cluster of storms in the FL panhandle about to cross into GA. @JDClapperi like the brisk pace of the trend gifs, I find it is more effective, just my 2¢ on that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MDBlueridge said: It's almost like I've lived here all my life lol I think NWS is light on their guess on several ridges but we'll find out I'm planning on taking the kids up to the Appalachian trail tomorrow morning if we don't get a couple inches down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 NAM 3 soundings compared to the balloons, it seems to have had a good handle on temps near PIT. it's a hair warm at IAD right about 925mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 All models showing a good 3-4-5 inches here. Nws ain’t buying it and has virtually nothing here. Keeping expectations low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 BTV's night crew upped the expected snowfall totals a bit. That is a sharp cutoff in the southeast portion of the state. Quote 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Impressive convection in the deep south. Almost looks like a rotating cluster of storms in the FL panhandle about to cross into GA. @JDClapperi like the brisk pace of the trend gifs, I find it is more effective, just my 2¢ on that. BTV mentions in their latest discussion that there was even some lightning in this system as far north as Lake Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2023 It'll be all rain up here. Only an inch or 2 of snow left. 36.7° and slowly rising with dense fog. Visibility ~600'. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Maybe some lake effect mood flakes tomorrow am south of Pittsburgh. Yay… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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