1816 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: this is where it starts to change That would would be awesome to see even a heavy quick burst at the end but I've seen this movie a lot of times. Bob barker outside.gif Charlie brown Lucy football.gif Old man fishing dollar bill.gif 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 Perhaps our more knowledgeable folks could discuss what could possibly change with this setup! 😊 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Perhaps our more knowledgeable folks could discuss what could possibly change with this setup! 😊 I'm not knowledgeable but I'm gonna go with moisture is gone before it gets cold for 1000 Alex. At least for my area. Models have always loved to show this and I really don't think I've ever seen more than 5 minutes of flurries out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: hard for a positively tilted setup to produce snow in this setup, mega arctic front I'm thinking if the pieces of energy near James bay can get out in front a bit more and flatten that ridging near the St Lawrence, it could somewhat improve. Still a few days. I know in my area, these ridges quite often are over modeled. Definitely disappointing to see deep lows modeled 5+ days out, to see them wither into waves along a front. We've seen that a few times later fall into early winter this year. The positive tilt could bring a little more cold down in front, then you'd need the Southern end to really dig, slow, and turn. It's another one of those complex trofs, multiple pieces of energy that need to be resolved. It'll undoubtedly change, just can't be sure what will change, and if it'll be beneficial. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 Still some quite disparate solutions within the GEFS. These 2 members show fairly different handling of the energies. Neither is all that "snowy", but shows there is room to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) Does this qualify as an east trend? 🤣 Edited December 6, 2023 by Grace 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 Excellent write-up from met Josh Ketchen: Quote Focus for the weekend storm is still not clear. What started out as a very warm storm on main global runs, despite a couple runs of snowier solutions, is struggling to figure out if the cold air wins out or warmer air holds its ground. Now, I have briefly mentioned how the subtropical jet stream is raging from south of Hawaii, through Mexico, and into the Gulf or southeastern United States. This will support drainage of colder air and better cold storm potential as we progresses farther into Winter. This is causing issues with the approaching storm this weekend for the area. The models are developing either a secondary low to form south of the region with a lot more energy then the northern low that occludes, or it is trying to refocus the main low farther south and east then what main runs have been suggesting the last few days. This is why I showed the Euro AI graphcast model that has had the low east for the overwhelming majority of runs. It is in its infant stages for being tested on its performance, but it has done quite well. Let's face it, most of the global models have done poorly late Summer into Autumn. Being 3.5 to 4 days out is still a modest amount of time for things to change, which we know they will, plus, better sampling of this storm will start as we head into Thursday and Friday. This is why waiting until Friday to get into specifics is needed. The main key, even the robustly warm GFS has developed a new secondary low on the 12Z run this late morning, which falls more in line with what the European and Canadian has been doing the last couple of main runs. So patience is needed to figure out key pieces of this storm. So, I stress again, do not worry about cold air placement and timing, those will come into much better agreement Thursday into Friday. Focus on the considerable shift eastward with the low track, either A) a secondary low as the first low occludes or B) the main surface low shifting considerably farther south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 I believe an atmospheric River research mission is heading out. Here's the general area. Most of the energy for this is closer to the coast, but I do think *some* is within the green square. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 6, 2023 Author Share Posted December 6, 2023 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: 12z has been brutal today🙄 Yes and no. Yes because of the lack of snow but no because all models seem to be on the secondary now. Track and strength of the secondary needs to be figured out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 Here's the last 6 days of GFS runs. You can see the notable shifts, interestingly the 12z runs generally had the biggest "jumps". One could argue there was a decent wrinkle with the most recent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Trailing secondary systems are so fragile. Primary in the upper lakes needs to be weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 6, 2023 Author Share Posted December 6, 2023 18z GFS would have been nice if the colder air got there quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Holy shit, last time I looked this was a non issue, may slightly be back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Well, there was one good ensemble member for me from 18Z GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 7, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 7, 2023 5 hours ago, Grace said: Does this qualify as an east trend? 🤣 It’s only a 999 mile difference.. I think it would need to be 1000.1 miles to be an eastward trend. Duh. 😂 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 End of 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: End of 0z NAM. Looks good. I would welcome the moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 00z GFS and CMC basically nothing burgers until it’s further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Absolutely crazy how my area cannot ever seem to even get a soaking rain. Basically central IL through most of Indiana could wind up with not much of anything if I am seeing the trends correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 7, 2023 (edited) The Dec 12 0Z AI model runs are all similar, weak lows up the west edge of Apps (just west of the global's tracks.) Maybe some OH folks east of I-71 can see some "white rain" late Sunday and maybe a light covering overnight Sunday. Edited December 7, 2023 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Just doesn’t look like there’s enough cold air in place fast enough for this system. That can be a factor in a El Niño winter in December. Oh well. I got a few inches of snow last night for the first snow of the season. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 (edited) 0z EPS members It's kind of hard to throw in the towel yet looking at those. Edited December 7, 2023 by Grace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, Grace said: 0z EPS members It's kind of hard to throw in the towel yet looking at those. agreed-7 or 8 members for MBY are bigger events-at least enough that our crews are out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 (edited) tough pill to swallow with a track like that around here in mid-December Edited December 7, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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