Dec. 9-12, 2023 | Potential Winter Storm

[SOMOSnow]

18z GFS. This is quickly turning into nothing re: Winter weather unless trends change. 

[cperry29]

1 hour ago, WeatherGuy1041 said:

Hi All,

Apologies if this has already been asked/answered, but how do the latest Euro AI model runs (Graphcast, etc.) look? Could someone provide a link to where they can be accessed if so?

Thanks!
Brian

This what you’re looking for? 
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

[WeatherGuy1041]

13 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

This what you’re looking for? 
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

That's what I was looking for - thanks! 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

I'm itching to get involved for the year, but just waiting for that 1 suite of runs that turns the tide. Starting to look like a stormy mid dec

[Sentinel]

Remember, El Nino winters tend to be back loaded. Just something to keep in mind. 

[Hassaywx1223]

The 0z icon and 0z cmc 👀👀

[SNOWBOB11]

CMC really going with the 2 wave storm look. Shows there’s still potential. Basically has the secondary as an apps runner now. Interested to see what the euro says.

[StormfanaticInd]

Not really liking my chances 

[snowlover2]

GFS appears to be the only one not going with the second wave look.

[bigben89]

[beaver56]

28 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

Of course it is. It had my area getting some nice QPF so that makes sense. 

[Grace]

Positive developments overnight. I'm wondering if we're circling back around to earlier solutions with 2 waves. 

Several EPS ensembles have done just that & 6z ICON is intriguing:

 

[StormfanaticInd]

7 minutes ago, Grace said:

Positive developments overnight. I'm wondering if we're circling back around to earlier solutions with 2 waves. 

Several EPS ensembles have done just that & 6z ICON is intriguing:

 

Yep several 6z models are looking more encouraging 

[SOMOSnow]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

Positive developments overnight. I'm wondering if we're circling back around to earlier solutions with 2 waves. 

Several EPS ensembles have done just that & 6z ICON is intriguing:

 

ICON got my attention

Edited December 6, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[SNOWBOB11]

I’d like to see the GFS get on board. Maybe 12z.

[1816]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

Positive developments overnight. I'm wondering if we're circling back around to earlier solutions with 2 waves. 

Several EPS ensembles have done just that & 6z ICON is intriguing:

 

Bring it. The rain I mean. We need rain. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

12z nam @ 84

[RobB]

Too bad there isn't a strongish cold high pressure behind this system.  Cold is pretty lacking.....

[BuckeyeGal]

It’s such a pretty track. And it has no cold until it’s too late. Everybody open your freezers. 😆

[Wnwniner]

7 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

It’s such a pretty track. And it has no cold until it’s too late. Everybody open your freezers. 😆

I'm not an expert, but do tracks repeat themselves?  If we can get a repeat in 6 weeks, we'll have better luck.

[BuckeyeGal]

1 minute ago, Wnwniner said:

I'm not an expert, but do tracks repeat themselves?  If we can get a repeat in 6 weeks, we'll have better luck.

Usually (but not always) the weather does seem to get into patterns. I would not mind a repeat (or multiple repeats) of this storm with colder air at ALL. 🙂

[snowlover2]

Still doesn’t look like GFS is biting on a secondary.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

waayyyyy too late for our thread

 

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

the ICON took on the GFS solution, bleh

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

same with the CMC