SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, 1816 said: It looks like there's a teardrop right at the top of Missouri already😢 Yes indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 5 hours ago, Cary67 said: This is a thread the needle situation that probably disappoints even for areas that are in the ribbon of snow. Poor antecedent airmass along with lots of pieces that all need to align right. Even if this all worked out places like Chicago with a NE wind off the still warm lake would probably have precip issues. Lake temps are still low 40s near shore to mid 40s farther out. Would assume that won't change much by the time the weekend arrives. With water temps like that in a marginally cold airmass, it would definitely be a factor to not overlook. Several factors go into that though, such a wind speed, timing of the wind shifting to less onshore/more offshore, precip rates, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 (edited) Euro looking terrible through 99 unless you're in Iowa or Kansas. The low is near Kansas City. It is also much faster. Edited December 5, 2023 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Some differences in how the trough is handled this run vs previously. Still a rapidly developing system but that occurs later than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 Euro is SE of its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: Euro is SE of its 0z run. Playing the 2nd low game as more energy at 500 comes around. Unique run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, RobB said: Playing the 2nd low game as more energy at 500 comes around. Unique run.. It was a interesting run for sure. Would be better for everyone if it was a split low type storm where the secondary energy ends up east. Edited December 5, 2023 by SNOWBOB11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 Just now, SOMOSnow said: Its wayyyyy West and NW of the big 12z run from yesterday and 0z night before in terms of main snow, though. Yeah it's a secondary that popped. Be nice if that went neg tilt a bit sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: It was a interesting run for sure. Would be better for everyone if it was a split low type storm where the secondary energy ends up east. Better for everyone? Was it a split low a couple days and nights ago when it dropped huge snows? I will have to go back and look. Didn't think it was but may be wrong. Edit: looking back, doesn't appear that it was. Edited December 5, 2023 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 Appears the 12z runs of the UK/GGEM/Euro have the same general idea with the energy over the OV while the GFS is more progressive with it over the NE. Have to wonder if GFS is being too progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 A little change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Better for everyone? Was it a split low a couple days and nights ago when it dropped huge snows? I will have to go back and look. Didn't think it was but may be wrong. Edit: looking back, doesn't appear that it was. What I mean was better than what models had started to show. GFS is so far west. I think if it’s one low it ends up basically what the GFS is showing. If it has a secondary it’s possible the secondary ends up east with the snow swath? What do you think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: What I mean was better than what models had started to show. GFS is so far west. I think if it’s one low it ends up basically what the GFS is showing. If it has a secondary it’s possible the secondary ends up east with the snow swath? What do you think? Definitely possible. I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Still a lot of variety in 12Z Euro ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted December 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 5, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Still a lot of variety in 12Z Euro ensemble members. Looks like a few decent ones but also a lot of duds still pretty far out though so things will of course change Edited December 5, 2023 by Central Illinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 12z GEFS showing some hints at the secondary the Euro had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 (edited) My expectations for appreciable snow IMBY are very low with this setup, but... Here's everyone's reminder of how awful the models are with winter storms in this 4-5 day range. Large range of storm track/strength outcomes are still on the table. Edited December 5, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuy1041 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Hi All, Apologies if this has already been asked/answered, but how do the latest Euro AI model runs (Graphcast, etc.) look? Could someone provide a link to where they can be accessed if so? Thanks! Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Last nights Spire Basic. Forgot to post this. Looks similar to Euro a couple days and nights ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 18z ICON - just not much cold air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 18z GFS is a little weaker but not much change otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: 18z ICON - just not much cold air to work with I’d still take my chances with that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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